Correcting the errors: Volatility forecast evaluation using high-frequency data and realized volatilities

We develop general model-free adjustment procedures for the calculation of unbiased volatility loss functions based on practically feasible realized volatility benchmarks. The procedures, which exploit recent nonparametric asymptotic distributional results, are both easy-to-implement and highly accurate in empirically realistic situations. We also illustrate that properly accounting for the measurement errors in the volatility forecast evaluations reported in the existing literature can result in markedly higher estimates for the true degree of return volatility predictability.

Information-theoretic analysis of a stimulated-Brillouin-scattering-based slow-light system.

We use an information-theoretic method developed by Neifeld and Lee [J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 25, C31 (2008)] to analyze the performance of a slow-light system. Slow-light is realized in this system via stimulated Brillouin scattering in a 2 km-long, room-temperature, highly nonlinear fiber pumped by a laser whose spectrum is tailored and broadened to 5 GHz. We compute the information throughput (IT), which quantifies the fraction of information transferred from the source to the receiver and the information delay (ID), which quantifies the delay of a data stream at which the information transfer is largest, for a range of experimental parameters. We also measure the eye-opening (EO) and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the transmitted data stream and find that they scale in a similar fashion to the information-theoretic method. Our experimental findings are compared to a model of the slow-light system that accounts for all pertinent noise sources in the system as well as data-pulse distortion due to the filtering effect of the SBS process. The agreement between our observations and the predictions of our model is very good. Furthermore, we compare measurements of the IT for an optimal flattop gain profile and for a Gaussian-shaped gain profile. For a given pump-beam power, we find that the optimal profile gives a 36% larger ID and somewhat higher IT compared to the Gaussian profile. Specifically, the optimal (Gaussian) profile produces a fractional slow-light ID of 0.94 (0.69) and an IT of 0.86 (0.86) at a pump-beam power of 450 mW and a data rate of 2.5 Gbps. Thus, the optimal profile better utilizes the available pump-beam power, which is often a valuable resource in a system design.

Magnetic metamaterial superlens for increased range wireless power transfer.

The ability to wirelessly power electrical devices is becoming of greater urgency as a component of energy conservation and sustainability efforts. Due to health and safety concerns, most wireless power transfer (WPT) schemes utilize very low frequency, quasi-static, magnetic fields; power transfer occurs via magneto-inductive (MI) coupling between conducting loops serving as transmitter and receiver. At the "long range" regime - referring to distances larger than the diameter of the largest loop - WPT efficiency in free space falls off as (1/d)(6); power loss quickly approaches 100% and limits practical implementations of WPT to relatively tight distances between power source and device. A "superlens", however, can concentrate the magnetic near fields of a source. Here, we demonstrate the impact of a magnetic metamaterial (MM) superlens on long-range near-field WPT, quantitatively confirming in simulation and measurement at 13-16 MHz the conditions under which the superlens can enhance power transfer efficiency compared to the lens-less free-space system.

A range-wide experiment to investigate nutrient and soil moisture interactions in loblolly pine plantations

© 2015 by the authors.The future climate of the southeastern USA is predicted to be warmer, drier and more variable in rainfall, which may increase drought frequency and intensity. Loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) is the most important commercial tree species in the world and is planted on ~11 million ha within its native range in the southeastern USA. A regional study was installed to evaluate effects of decreased rainfall and nutrient additions on loblolly pine plantation productivity and physiology. Four locations were established to capture the range-wide variability of soil and climate. Treatments were initiated in 2012 and consisted of a factorial combination of throughfall reduction (approximate 30% reduction) and fertilization (complete suite of nutrients). Tree and stand growth were measured at each site. Results after two growing seasons indicate a positive but variable response of fertilization on stand volume increment at all four sites and a negative effect of throughfall reduction at two sites. Data will be used to produce robust process model parameterizations useful for simulating loblolly pine growth and function under future, novel climate and management scenarios. The resulting improved models will provide support for developing management strategies to increase pine plantation productivity and carbon sequestration under a changing climate.

Serum cholesterol levels within the high normal range are associated with better cognitive performance among Chinese elderly

© 2016, Serdi and Springer-Verlag France.Objectives: The association between cognitive function and cholesterol levels is poorly understood and inconsistent results exist among the elderly. The purpose of this study is to investigate the association of cholesterol level with cognitive performance among Chinese elderly. Design: A cross-sectional study was implemented in 2012 and data were analyzed using generalized additive models, linear regression models and logistic regression models. Setting: Community-based setting in eight longevity areas in China. Subjects: A total of 2000 elderly aged 65 years and over (mean 85.8±12.0 years) participated in this study. Measurements: Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentration were determined and cognitive impairment was defined as Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score≤23. Results: There was a significant positive linear association between TC, TG, LDL-C, HDL-C and MMSE score in linear regression models. Each 1 mmol/L increase in TC, TG, LDL-C and HDL-C corresponded to a decreased risk of cognitive impairment in logistic regression models. Compared with the lowest tertile, the highest tertile of TC, LDL-C and HDL-C had a lower risk of cognitive impairment. The adjusted odds ratios and 95% CI were 0.73(0.62–0.84) for TC, 0.81(0.70–0.94) for LDL-C and 0.81(0.70–0.94) for HDL-C. There was no gender difference in the protective effects of high TC and LDL-C levels on cognitive impairment. However, for high HDL-C levels the effect was only observed in women. High TC, LDL-C and HDL-C levels were associated with lower risk of cognitive impairment in the oldest old (aged 80 and older), but not in the younger elderly (aged 65 to 79 years). Conclusions: These findings suggest that cholesterol levels within the high normal range are associated with better cognitive performance in Chinese elderly, specifically in the oldest old. With further validation, low cholesterol may serve a clinical indicator of risk for cognitive impairment in the elderly.