Patient expectation is the most important predictor of discharge destination after primary total joint arthroplasty.

The purpose of this study was to identify preoperative predictors of discharge destination after total joint arthroplasty. A retrospective study of three hundred and seventy-two consecutive patients who underwent primary total hip and knee arthroplasty was performed. The mean length of stay was 2.9 days and 29.0% of patients were discharged to extended care facilities. Age, caregiver support at home, and patient expectation of discharge destination were the only significant multivariable predictors regardless of the type of surgery (total knee versus total hip arthroplasty). Among those variables, patient expectation was the most important predictor (P < 0.001; OR 169.53). The study was adequately powered to analyze the variables in the multivariable logistic regression model, which had a high concordance index of 0.969.

Prediction in dynamic models with time-dependent conditional variances

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from a single-equation dynamic model with autocorrelated disturbances following an ARMA process, and innovations with time-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity as represented by a linear GARCH process. Expressions for the minimum MSE predictor and the conditional MSE are presented. We also derive the formula for all the theoretical moments of the prediction error distribution from a general dynamic model with GARCH(1, 1) innovations. These results are then used in the construction of ex ante prediction confidence intervals by means of the Cornish-Fisher asymptotic expansion. An empirical example relating to the uncertainty of the expected depreciation of foreign exchange rates illustrates the usefulness of the results. © 1992.

A unified framework for measuring preferences for schools and neighborhoods

This paper develops a framework for estimating household preferences for school and neighborhood attributes in the presence of sorting. It embeds a boundary discontinuity design in a heterogeneous residential choice model, addressing the endogeneity of school and neighborhood characteristics. The model is estimated using restricted-access Census data from a large metropolitan area, yielding a number of new results. First, households are willing to pay less than 1 percent more in house prices - substantially lower than previous estimates - when the average performance of the local school increases by 5 percent. Second, much of the apparent willingness to pay for more educated and wealthier neighbors is explained by the correlation of these sociodemographic measures with unobserved neighborhood quality. Third, neighborhood race is not capitalized directly into housing prices; instead, the negative correlation of neighborhood percent black and housing prices is due entirely to the fact that blacks live in unobservably lower-quality neighborhoods. Finally, there is considerable heterogeneity in preferences for schools and neighbors, with households preferring to self-segregate on the basis of both race and education. © 2007 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

Does higher hospital cost imply higher quality of care?

This study investigates whether higher input use per stay in the hospital (treatment intensity) and longer length of stay improve outcomes of care. We allow for endogeneity of intensity and length of stay by estimating a quasi-maximum-likelihood discrete factor model, where the distribution of the unmeasured variable is modeled using a discrete distribution. Data on elderly persons come from several waves of the National Long-Term Care Survey merged with Medicare claims data for 1984-1995 and the National Death Index. We find that higher intensity improves patient survival and some dimensions of functional status among those who survive.

Reduction of quantity smoked predicts future cessation among older smokers.

AIM: To examine whether smokers who reduce their quantity of cigarettes smoked between two periods are more or less likely to quit subsequently. STUDY DESIGN: Data come from the Health and Retirement Study, a nationally representative survey of older Americans aged 51-61 in 1991 followed every 2 years from 1992 to 1998. The 2064 participants smoking at baseline and the first follow-up comprise the main sample. MEASUREMENTS: Smoking cessation by 1996 is examined as the primary outcome. A secondary outcome is relapse by 1998. Spontaneous changes in smoking quantity between the first two waves make up the key predictor variables. Control variables include gender, age, education, race, marital status, alcohol use, psychiatric problems, acute or chronic health problems and smoking quantity. FINDINGS: Large (over 50%) and even moderate (25-50%) reductions in quantity smoked between 1992 and 1994 predict prospectively increased likelihood of cessation in 1996 compared to no change in quantity (OR 2.96, P<0.001 and OR 1.61, P<0.01, respectively). Additionally, those who reduced and then quit were somewhat less likely to relapse by 1998 than those who did not reduce in the 2 years prior to quitting. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing successfully the quantity of cigarettes smoked appears to have a beneficial effect on future cessation likelihood, even after controlling for initial smoking level and other variables known to impact smoking cessation. These results indicate that the harm reduction strategy of reduced smoking warrants further study.

The impact of shame on health-related quality of life among HIV-positive adults with a history of childhood sexual abuse.

Childhood sexual abuse is prevalent among people living with HIV, and the experience of shame is a common consequence of childhood sexual abuse and HIV infection. This study examined the role of shame in health-related quality of life among HIV-positive adults who have experienced childhood sexual abuse. Data from 247 HIV-infected adults with a history of childhood sexual abuse were analyzed. Hierarchical linear regression was conducted to assess the impact of shame regarding both sexual abuse and HIV infection, while controlling for demographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors. In bivariate analyses, shame regarding sexual abuse and HIV infection were each negatively associated with health-related quality of life and its components (physical well-being, function and global well-being, emotional and social well-being, and cognitive functioning). After controlling for demographic, clinical, and psychosocial factors, HIV-related, but not sexual abuse-related, shame remained a significant predictor of reduced health-related quality of life, explaining up to 10% of the variance in multivariable models for overall health-related quality of life, emotional, function and global, and social well-being and cognitive functioning over and above that of other variables entered into the model. Additionally, HIV symptoms, perceived stress, and perceived availability of social support were associated with health-related quality of life in multivariable models. Shame is an important and modifiable predictor of health-related quality of life in HIV-positive populations, and medical and mental health providers serving HIV-infected populations should be aware of the importance of shame and its impact on the well-being of their patients.

Neural network analysis identifies scaffold properties necessary for in vitro chondrogenesis in elastin-like polypeptide biopolymer scaffolds.

The successful design of biomaterial scaffolds for articular cartilage tissue engineering requires an understanding of the impact of combinations of material formulation parameters on diverse and competing functional outcomes of biomaterial performance. This study sought to explore the use of a type of unsupervised artificial network, a self-organizing map, to identify relationships between scaffold formulation parameters (crosslink density, molecular weight, and concentration) and 11 such outcomes (including mechanical properties, matrix accumulation, metabolite usage and production, and histological appearance) for scaffolds formed from crosslinked elastin-like polypeptide (ELP) hydrogels. The artificial neural network recognized patterns in functional outcomes and provided a set of relationships between ELP formulation parameters and measured outcomes. Mapping resulted in the best mean separation amongst neurons for mechanical properties and pointed to crosslink density as the strongest predictor of most outcomes, followed by ELP concentration. The map also grouped formulations together that simultaneously resulted in the highest values for matrix production, greatest changes in metabolite consumption or production, and highest histological scores, indicating that the network was able to recognize patterns amongst diverse measurement outcomes. These results demonstrated the utility of artificial neural network tools for recognizing relationships in systems with competing parameters, toward the goal of optimizing and accelerating the design of biomaterial scaffolds for articular cartilage tissue engineering.

MRP3: a molecular target for human glioblastoma multiforme immunotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is refractory to conventional therapies. To overcome the problem of heterogeneity, more brain tumor markers are required for prognosis and targeted therapy. We have identified and validated a promising molecular therapeutic target that is expressed by GBM: human multidrug-resistance protein 3 (MRP3). METHODS: We investigated MRP3 by genetic and immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of human gliomas to determine the incidence, distribution, and localization of MRP3 antigens in GBM and their potential correlation with survival. To determine MRP3 mRNA transcript and protein expression levels, we performed quantitative RT-PCR, raising MRP3-specific antibodies, and IHC analysis with biopsies of newly diagnosed GBM patients. We used univariate and multivariate analyses to assess the correlation of RNA expression and IHC of MRP3 with patient survival, with and without adjustment for age, extent of resection, and KPS. RESULTS: Real-time PCR results from 67 GBM biopsies indicated that 59/67 (88%) samples highly expressed MRP3 mRNA transcripts, in contrast with minimal expression in normal brain samples. Rabbit polyvalent and murine monoclonal antibodies generated against an extracellular span of MRP3 protein demonstrated reactivity with defined MRP3-expressing cell lines and GBM patient biopsies by Western blotting and FACS analyses, the latter establishing cell surface MRP3 protein expression. IHC evaluation of 46 GBM biopsy samples with anti-MRP3 IgG revealed MRP3 in a primarily membranous and cytoplasmic pattern in 42 (91%) of the 46 samples. Relative RNA expression was a strong predictor of survival for newly diagnosed GBM patients. Hazard of death for GBM patients with high levels of MRP3 RNA expression was 2.71 (95% CI: 1.54-4.80) times that of patients with low/moderate levels (p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: Human GBMs overexpress MRP3 at both mRNA and protein levels, and elevated MRP3 mRNA levels in GBM biopsy samples correlated with a higher risk of death. These data suggest that the tumor-associated antigen MRP3 has potential use for prognosis and as a target for malignant glioma immunotherapy.

Seeing the forest for the fuel

We demonstrate a new approach to understanding the role of fuelwood in the rural household economy by applying insights from travel cost modeling to author-compiled household survey data and meso-scale environmental statistics from Ruteng Park in Flores, Indonesia. We characterize Manggarai farming households' fuelwood collection trips as inputs into household production of the utility yielding service of cooking and heating. The number of trips taken by households depends on the shadow price of fuelwood collection or the travel cost, which is endogenous. Econometric analyses using truncated negative binomial regression models and correcting for endogeneity show that the Manggarai are 'economically rational' about fuelwood collection and access to the forests for fuelwood makes substantial contributions to household welfare. Increasing cost of forest access, wealth, use of alternative fuels, ownership of kerosene stoves, trees on farm, park staff activity, primary schools and roads, and overall development could all reduce dependence on collecting fuelwood from forests. © 2004 Cambridge University Press.

Cost-effectiveness of electricity energy efficiency programs

We analyze the cost-effectiveness of electric utility ratepayer-funded programs to promote demand-side management (DSM) and energy efficiency (EE) investments. We specify a model that relates electricity demand to previous EE DSM spending, energy prices, income, weather, and other demand factors. In contrast to previous studies, we allow EE DSM spending to have a potential longterm demand effect and explicitly address possible endogeneity in spending. We find that current period EE DSM expenditures reduce electricity demand and that this effect persists for a number of years. Our findings suggest that ratepayer funded DSM expenditures between 1992 and 2006 produced a central estimate of 0.9 percent savings in electricity consumption over that time period and a 1.8 percent savings over all years. These energy savings came at an expected average cost to utilities of roughly 5 cents per kWh saved when future savings are discounted at a 5 percent rate. Copyright © 2012 by the IAEE. All rights reserved.

A functional polymorphism in the 5HTR2C gene associated with stress responses also predicts incident cardiovascular events.

Previously we have shown that a functional nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphism (rs6318) of the 5HTR2C gene located on the X-chromosome is associated with hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis response to a stress recall task, and with endophenotypes associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). These findings suggest that individuals carrying the rs6318 Ser23 C allele will be at higher risk for CVD compared to Cys23 G allele carriers. The present study examined allelic variation in rs6318 as a predictor of coronary artery disease (CAD) severity and a composite endpoint of all-cause mortality or myocardial infarction (MI) among Caucasian participants consecutively recruited through the cardiac catheterization laboratory at Duke University Hospital (Durham, NC) as part of the CATHGEN biorepository. Study population consisted of 6,126 Caucasian participants (4,036 [65.9%] males and 2,090 [34.1%] females). A total of 1,769 events occurred (1,544 deaths and 225 MIs; median follow-up time = 5.3 years, interquartile range = 3.3-8.2). Unadjusted Cox time-to-event regression models showed, compared to Cys23 G carriers, males hemizygous for Ser23 C and females homozygous for Ser23C were at increased risk for the composite endpoint of all-cause death or MI: Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.17, 1.84, p = .0008. Adjusting for age, rs6318 genotype was not related to body mass index, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, smoking history, number of diseased coronary arteries, or left ventricular ejection fraction in either males or females. After adjustment for these covariates the estimate for the two Ser23 C groups was modestly attenuated, but remained statistically significant: HR = 1.38, 95% CI = 1.10, 1.73, p = .005. These findings suggest that this functional polymorphism of the 5HTR2C gene is associated with increased risk for CVD mortality and morbidity, but this association is apparently not explained by the association of rs6318 with traditional risk factors or conventional markers of atherosclerotic disease.

Long-term changes in physical activity following a one-year home-based physical activity counseling program in older adults with multiple morbidities.

This study assessed the sustained effect of a physical activity (PA) counseling intervention on PA one year after intervention, predictors of sustained PA participation, and three classes of post-intervention PA trajectories (improvers, maintainers, and decliners) in 238 older Veterans. Declines in minutes of PA from 12 to 24 months were observed for both the treatment and control arms of the study. PA at 12 months was the strongest predictor of post-intervention changes in PA. To our surprise, those who took up the intervention and increased PA levels the most, had significant declines in post-intervention PA. Analysis of the three post-intervention PA trajectories demonstrated that the maintenance group actually reflected a group of nonresponders to the intervention who had more comorbidities, lower self-efficacy, and worse physical function than the improvers or decliners. Results suggest that behavioral counseling/support must be ongoing to promote maintenance. Strategies to promote PA appropriately to subgroups of individuals are needed.

The Effects of Geography, Environment and Phylogeny on Community Assembly and Gene Flow Dynamics

It is increasingly evident that evolutionary processes play a role in how ecological communities are assembled. However the extend to which evolution influences how plants respond to spatial and environmental gradients and interact with each other is less clear. In this dissertation I leverage evolutionary tools and thinking to understand how space and environment affect community composition and patterns of gene flow in a unique system of Atlantic rainforest and restinga (sandy coastal plains) habitats in Southeastern Brazil.

In chapter one I investigate how space and environment affect the population genetic structure and gene flow of Aechmea nudicaulis, a bromeliad species that co-occurs in forest and restinga habitats. I genotyped seven microsatellite loci and sequenced one chloroplast DNA region for individuals collected in 7 pairs of forest / restinga sites. Bayesian genetic clustering analyses show that populations of A. nudicaulis are geographically structured in northern and southern populations, a pattern consistent with broader scale phylogeographic dynamics of the Atlantic rainforest. On the other hand, explicit migration models based on the coalescent estimate that inter-habitat gene flow is less common than gene flow between populations in the same habitat type, despite their geographic discontinuity. I conclude that there is evidence for repeated colonization of the restingas from forest populations even though the steep environmental gradient between habitats is a stronger barrier to gene flow than geographic distance.

In chapter two I use data on 2800 individual plants finely mapped in a restinga plot and on first-year survival of 500 seedlings to understand the roles of phylogeny, functional traits and abiotic conditions in the spatial structuring of that community. I demonstrate that phylogeny is a poor predictor of functional traits in and that convergence in these traits is pervasive. In general, the community is not phylogenetically structured, with at best 14% of the plots deviating significantly from the null model. The functional traits SLA, leaf dry matter content (LDMC), and maximum height also showed no clear pattern of spatial structuring. On the other hand, leaf area is strongly overdispersed across all spatial scales. Although leaf area overdispersion would be generally taken as evidence of competition, I argue that interpretation is probably misleading. Finally, I show that seedling survival is dramatically increased when they grow shaded by an adult individual, suggesting that seedlings are being facilitated. Phylogenetic distance to their adult neighbor has no influence on rates of survival though. Taken together, these results indicate that phylogeny has very limited influence on the fine scale assembly of restinga communities.

People who expect to enter psychotherapy are prone to believing that they have forgotten memories of childhood trauma and abuse.

We asked 1004 undergraduates to estimate both the probability that they would enter therapy and the probability that they experienced but could not remember incidents of potentially life-threatening childhood traumas or physical and sexual abuse. We found a linear relation between the expectation of entering therapy and the belief that one had, but cannot now remember, childhood trauma and abuse. Thus individuals who are prone to seek psychotherapy are also prone to accept a suggested memory of childhood trauma or abuse as fitting their expectations. In multiple regressions predicting the probability of forgotten memories of childhood traumas and abuse, the expectation of entering therapy remained as a substantial predictor when self-report measures of mood, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder symptom severity, and trauma exposure were included.