Making Good Citizens: Policy Approaches to Increasing Civic Participation

In this dissertation, I explore the impact of several public policies on civic participation. Using a unique combination of school administrative and public–use voter files and methods for causal inference, I evaluate the impact of three new, as of yet unexplored, policies: one informational, one institutional, and one skill–based. Chapter 2 examines the causal effect of No Child Left Behind’s performance-based accountability school failure signals on turnout in school board elections and on individuals’ use of exit. I find that failure signals mobilize citizens both at the ballot box and by encouraging them to vote with their feet. However, these increases in voice and exit come primarily from citizens who already active—thus exacerbating inequalities in both forms of participation. Chapter 3 examines the causal effect of preregistration—an electoral reform that allows young citizens to enroll in the electoral system before turning 18, while also providing them with various in-school supports. Using data from the Current Population Survey and Florida Voter Files and multiple methods for causal inference, I (with my coauthor listed below) show that preregistration mobilizes and does so for a diverse set of citizens. Finally, Chapter 4 examines the impact of psychosocial or so called non-cognitive skills on voter turnout. Using information from the Fast Track intervention, I show that early– childhood investments in psychosocial skills have large, long-run spillovers on civic participation. These gains are widely distributed, being especially large for those least likely to participate. These chapters provide clear insights that reach across disciplinary boundaries and speak to current policy debates. In placing specific attention not only on whether these programs mobilize, but also on who they mobilize, I provide scholars and practitioners with new ways of thinking about how to address stubbornly low and unequal rates of citizen engagement.

Essays on Energy Economics and Industrial Organization

The dissertation consists of three chapters related to the low-price guarantee marketing strategy and energy efficiency analysis. The low-price guarantee is a marketing strategy in which firms promise to charge consumers the lowest price among their competitors. Chapter 1 addresses the research question "Does a Low-Price Guarantee Induce Lower Prices'' by looking into the retail gasoline industry in Quebec where there was a major branded firm which started a low-price guarantee back in 1996. Chapter 2 does a consumer welfare analysis of low-price guarantees to drive police indications and offers a new explanation of the firms' incentives to adopt a low-price guarantee. Chapter 3 develops the energy performance indicators (EPIs) to measure energy efficiency of the manufacturing plants in pulp, paper and paperboard industry.

Chapter 1 revisits the traditional view that a low-price guarantee results in higher prices by facilitating collusion. Using accurate market definitions and station-level data from the retail gasoline industry in Quebec, I conducted a descriptive analysis based on stations and price zones to compare the price and sales movement before and after the guarantee was adopted. I find that, contrary to the traditional view, the stores that offered the guarantee significantly decreased their prices and increased their sales. I also build a difference-in-difference model to quantify the decrease in posted price of the stores that offered the guarantee to be 0.7 cents per liter. While this change is significant, I do not find the response in comeptitors' prices to be significant. The sales of the stores that offered the guarantee increased significantly while the competitors' sales decreased significantly. However, the significance vanishes if I use the station clustered standard errors. Comparing my observations and the predictions of different theories of modeling low-price guarantees, I conclude the empirical evidence here supports that the low-price guarantee is a simple commitment device and induces lower prices.

Chapter 2 conducts a consumer welfare analysis of low-price guarantees to address the antitrust concerns and potential regulations from the government; explains the firms' potential incentives to adopt a low-price guarantee. Using station-level data from the retail gasoline industry in Quebec, I estimated consumers' demand of gasoline by a structural model with spatial competition incorporating the low-price guarantee as a commitment device, which allows firms to pre-commit to charge the lowest price among their competitors. The counterfactual analysis under the Bertrand competition setting shows that the stores that offered the guarantee attracted a lot more consumers and decreased their posted price by 0.6 cents per liter. Although the matching stores suffered a decrease in profits from gasoline sales, they are incentivized to adopt the low-price guarantee to attract more consumers to visit the store likely increasing profits at attached convenience stores. Firms have strong incentives to adopt a low-price guarantee on the product that their consumers are most price-sensitive about, while earning a profit from the products that are not covered in the guarantee. I estimate that consumers earn about 0.3% more surplus when the low-price guarantee is in place, which suggests that the authorities should not be concerned and regulate low-price guarantees. In Appendix B, I also propose an empirical model to look into how low-price guarantees would change consumer search behavior and whether consumer search plays an important role in estimating consumer surplus accurately.

Chapter 3, joint with Gale Boyd, describes work with the pulp, paper, and paperboard (PP&PB) industry to provide a plant-level indicator of energy efficiency for facilities that produce various types of paper products in the United States. Organizations that implement strategic energy management programs undertake a set of activities that, if carried out properly, have the potential to deliver sustained energy savings. Energy performance benchmarking is a key activity of strategic energy management and one way to enable companies to set energy efficiency targets for manufacturing facilities. The opportunity to assess plant energy performance through a comparison with similar plants in its industry is a highly desirable and strategic method of benchmarking for industrial energy managers. However, access to energy performance data for conducting industry benchmarking is usually unavailable to most industrial energy managers. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), through its ENERGY STAR program, seeks to overcome this barrier through the development of manufacturing sector-based plant energy performance indicators (EPIs) that encourage U.S. industries to use energy more efficiently. In the development of the energy performance indicator tools, consideration is given to the role that performance-based indicators play in motivating change; the steps necessary for indicator development, from interacting with an industry in securing adequate data for the indicator; and actual application and use of an indicator when complete. How indicators are employed in EPA’s efforts to encourage industries to voluntarily improve their use of energy is discussed as well. The chapter describes the data and statistical methods used to construct the EPI for plants within selected segments of the pulp, paper, and paperboard industry: specifically pulp mills and integrated paper & paperboard mills. The individual equations are presented, as are the instructions for using those equations as implemented in an associated Microsoft Excel-based spreadsheet tool.

An Empirically Based Stochastic Turbulence Simulator with Temporal Coherence for Wind Energy Applications

In this dissertation, we develop a novel methodology for characterizing and simulating nonstationary, full-field, stochastic turbulent wind fields.

In this new method, nonstationarity is characterized and modeled via temporal coherence, which is quantified in the discrete frequency domain by probability distributions of the differences in phase between adjacent Fourier components.

The empirical distributions of the phase differences can also be extracted from measured data, and the resulting temporal coherence parameters can quantify the occurrence of nonstationarity in empirical wind data.

This dissertation (1) implements temporal coherence in a desktop turbulence simulator, (2) calibrates empirical temporal coherence models for four wind datasets, and (3) quantifies the increase in lifetime wind turbine loads caused by temporal coherence.

The four wind datasets were intentionally chosen from locations around the world so that they had significantly different ambient atmospheric conditions.

The prevalence of temporal coherence and its relationship to other standard wind parameters was modeled through empirical joint distributions (EJDs), which involved fitting marginal distributions and calculating correlations.

EJDs have the added benefit of being able to generate samples of wind parameters that reflect the characteristics of a particular site.

Lastly, to characterize the effect of temporal coherence on design loads, we created four models in the open-source wind turbine simulator FAST based on the \windpact turbines, fit response surfaces to them, and used the response surfaces to calculate lifetime turbine responses to wind fields simulated with and without temporal coherence.

The training data for the response surfaces was generated from exhaustive FAST simulations that were run on the high-performance computing (HPC) facilities at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

This process was repeated for wind field parameters drawn from the empirical distributions and for wind samples drawn using the recommended procedure in the wind turbine design standard \iec.

The effect of temporal coherence was calculated as a percent increase in the lifetime load over the base value with no temporal coherence.

Testing of Interposer-Based 2.5D Integrated Circuits

The unprecedented and relentless growth in the electronics industry is feeding the demand for integrated circuits (ICs) with increasing functionality and performance at minimum cost and power consumption. As predicted by Moore's law, ICs are being aggressively scaled to meet this demand. While the continuous scaling of process technology is reducing gate delays, the performance of ICs is being increasingly dominated by interconnect delays. In an effort to improve submicrometer interconnect performance, to increase packing density, and to reduce chip area and power consumption, the semiconductor industry is focusing on three-dimensional (3D) integration. However, volume production and commercial exploitation of 3D integration are not feasible yet due to significant technical hurdles.

At the present time, interposer-based 2.5D integration is emerging as a precursor to stacked 3D integration. All the dies and the interposer in a 2.5D IC must be adequately tested for product qualification. However, since the structure of 2.5D ICs is different from the traditional 2D ICs, new challenges have emerged: (1) pre-bond interposer testing, (2) lack of test access, (3) limited ability for at-speed testing, (4) high density I/O ports and interconnects, (5) reduced number of test pins, and (6) high power consumption. This research targets the above challenges and effective solutions have been developed to test both dies and the interposer.

The dissertation first introduces the basic concepts of 3D ICs and 2.5D ICs. Prior work on testing of 2.5D ICs is studied. An efficient method is presented to locate defects in a passive interposer before stacking. The proposed test architecture uses e-fuses that can be programmed to connect or disconnect functional paths inside the interposer. The concept of a die footprint is utilized for interconnect testing, and the overall assembly and test flow is described. Moreover, the concept of weighted critical area is defined and utilized to reduce test time. In order to fully determine the location of each e-fuse and the order of functional interconnects in a test path, we also present a test-path design algorithm. The proposed algorithm can generate all test paths for interconnect testing.

In order to test for opens, shorts, and interconnect delay defects in the interposer, a test architecture is proposed that is fully compatible with the IEEE 1149.1 standard and relies on an enhancement of the standard test access port (TAP) controller. To reduce test cost, a test-path design and scheduling technique is also presented that minimizes a composite cost function based on test time and the design-for-test (DfT) overhead in terms of additional through silicon vias (TSVs) and micro-bumps needed for test access. The locations of the dies on the interposer are taken into consideration in order to determine the order of dies in a test path.

To address the scenario of high density of I/O ports and interconnects, an efficient built-in self-test (BIST) technique is presented that targets the dies and the interposer interconnects. The proposed BIST architecture can be enabled by the standard TAP controller in the IEEE 1149.1 standard. The area overhead introduced by this BIST architecture is negligible; it includes two simple BIST controllers, a linear-feedback-shift-register (LFSR), a multiple-input-signature-register (MISR), and some extensions to the boundary-scan cells in the dies on the interposer. With these extensions, all boundary-scan cells can be used for self-configuration and self-diagnosis during interconnect testing. To reduce the overall test cost, a test scheduling and optimization technique under power constraints is described.

In order to accomplish testing with a small number test pins, the dissertation presents two efficient ExTest scheduling strategies that implements interconnect testing between tiles inside an system on chip (SoC) die on the interposer while satisfying the practical constraint that the number of required test pins cannot exceed the number of available pins at the chip level. The tiles in the SoC are divided into groups based on the manner in which they are interconnected. In order to minimize the test time, two optimization solutions are introduced. The first solution minimizes the number of input test pins, and the second solution minimizes the number output test pins. In addition, two subgroup configuration methods are further proposed to generate subgroups inside each test group.

Finally, the dissertation presents a programmable method for shift-clock stagger assignment to reduce power supply noise during SoC die testing in 2.5D ICs. An SoC die in the 2.5D IC is typically composed of several blocks and two neighboring blocks that share the same power rails should not be toggled at the same time during shift. Therefore, the proposed programmable method does not assign the same stagger value to neighboring blocks. The positions of all blocks are first analyzed and the shared boundary length between blocks is then calculated. Based on the position relationships between the blocks, a mathematical model is presented to derive optimal result for small-to-medium sized problems. For larger designs, a heuristic algorithm is proposed and evaluated.

In summary, the dissertation targets important design and optimization problems related to testing of interposer-based 2.5D ICs. The proposed research has led to theoretical insights, experiment results, and a set of test and design-for-test methods to make testing effective and feasible from a cost perspective.

Emulsion-Based RIR-MAPLE Deposition of Conjugated Polymers: Primary Solvent Effect and Its Implications on Organic Solar Cell Performance.

Emulsion-based, resonant infrared matrix-assisted pulsed laser evaporation (RIR-MAPLE) has been demonstrated as an alternative technique to deposit conjugated polymer films for photovoltaic applications; yet, a fundamental understanding of how the emulsion target characteristics translate into film properties and solar cell performance is unclear. Such understanding is crucial to enable the rational improvement of organic solar cell (OSC) efficiency and to realize the expected advantages of emulsion-based RIR-MAPLE for OSC fabrication. In this paper, the effect of the primary solvent used in the emulsion target is studied, both experimentally and theoretically, and it is found to determine the conjugated polymer cluster size in the emulsion as well as surface roughness and internal morphology of resulting polymer films. By using a primary solvent with low solubility-in-water and low vapor pressure, the surface roughness of deposited P3HT and PCPDTBT polymer films was reduced to 10 nm, and the efficiency of P3HT:PC61BM OSCs was increased to 3.2% (∼100 times higher compared to the first MAPLE OSC demonstration [ Caricato , A. P. ; Appl. Phys. Lett. 2012 , 100 , 073306 ]). This work unveils the mechanism of polymer film formation using emulsion-based RIR-MAPLE and provides insight and direction to determine the best ways to take advantage of the emulsion target approach to control film properties for different applications.

Prospective Estimation of Radiation Dose and Image Quality for Optimized CT Performance

X-ray computed tomography (CT) is a non-invasive medical imaging technique that generates cross-sectional images by acquiring attenuation-based projection measurements at multiple angles. Since its first introduction in the 1970s, substantial technical improvements have led to the expanding use of CT in clinical examinations. CT has become an indispensable imaging modality for the diagnosis of a wide array of diseases in both pediatric and adult populations [1, 2]. Currently, approximately 272 million CT examinations are performed annually worldwide, with nearly 85 million of these in the United States alone [3]. Although this trend has decelerated in recent years, CT usage is still expected to increase mainly due to advanced technologies such as multi-energy [4], photon counting [5], and cone-beam CT [6].

Despite the significant clinical benefits, concerns have been raised regarding the population-based radiation dose associated with CT examinations [7]. From 1980 to 2006, the effective dose from medical diagnostic procedures rose six-fold, with CT contributing to almost half of the total dose from medical exposure [8]. For each patient, the risk associated with a single CT examination is likely to be minimal. However, the relatively large population-based radiation level has led to enormous efforts among the community to manage and optimize the CT dose.

As promoted by the international campaigns Image Gently and Image Wisely, exposure to CT radiation should be appropriate and safe [9, 10]. It is thus a responsibility to optimize the amount of radiation dose for CT examinations. The key for dose optimization is to determine the minimum amount of radiation dose that achieves the targeted image quality [11]. Based on such principle, dose optimization would significantly benefit from effective metrics to characterize radiation dose and image quality for a CT exam. Moreover, if accurate predictions of the radiation dose and image quality were possible before the initiation of the exam, it would be feasible to personalize it by adjusting the scanning parameters to achieve a desired level of image quality. The purpose of this thesis is to design and validate models to quantify patient-specific radiation dose prospectively and task-based image quality. The dual aim of the study is to implement the theoretical models into clinical practice by developing an organ-based dose monitoring system and an image-based noise addition software for protocol optimization.

More specifically, Chapter 3 aims to develop an organ dose-prediction method for CT examinations of the body under constant tube current condition. The study effectively modeled the anatomical diversity and complexity using a large number of patient models with representative age, size, and gender distribution. The dependence of organ dose coefficients on patient size and scanner models was further evaluated. Distinct from prior work, these studies use the largest number of patient models to date with representative age, weight percentile, and body mass index (BMI) range.

With effective quantification of organ dose under constant tube current condition, Chapter 4 aims to extend the organ dose prediction system to tube current modulated (TCM) CT examinations. The prediction, applied to chest and abdominopelvic exams, was achieved by combining a convolution-based estimation technique that quantifies the radiation field, a TCM scheme that emulates modulation profiles from major CT vendors, and a library of computational phantoms with representative sizes, ages, and genders. The prospective quantification model is validated by comparing the predicted organ dose with the dose estimated based on Monte Carlo simulations with TCM function explicitly modeled.

Chapter 5 aims to implement the organ dose-estimation framework in clinical practice to develop an organ dose-monitoring program based on a commercial software (Dose Watch, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI). In the first phase of the study we focused on body CT examinations, and so the patient’s major body landmark information was extracted from the patient scout image in order to match clinical patients against a computational phantom in the library. The organ dose coefficients were estimated based on CT protocol and patient size as reported in Chapter 3. The exam CTDIvol, DLP, and TCM profiles were extracted and used to quantify the radiation field using the convolution technique proposed in Chapter 4.

With effective methods to predict and monitor organ dose, Chapters 6 aims to develop and validate improved measurement techniques for image quality assessment. Chapter 6 outlines the method that was developed to assess and predict quantum noise in clinical body CT images. Compared with previous phantom-based studies, this study accurately assessed the quantum noise in clinical images and further validated the correspondence between phantom-based measurements and the expected clinical image quality as a function of patient size and scanner attributes.

Chapter 7 aims to develop a practical strategy to generate hybrid CT images and assess the impact of dose reduction on diagnostic confidence for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. The general strategy is (1) to simulate synthetic CT images at multiple reduced-dose levels from clinical datasets using an image-based noise addition technique; (2) to develop quantitative and observer-based methods to validate the realism of simulated low-dose images; (3) to perform multi-reader observer studies on the low-dose image series to assess the impact of dose reduction on the diagnostic confidence for multiple diagnostic tasks; and (4) to determine the dose operating point for clinical CT examinations based on the minimum diagnostic performance to achieve protocol optimization.

Chapter 8 concludes the thesis with a summary of accomplished work and a discussion about future research.