Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

The Effects of Brominated Flame Retardants on Thyroid Hormone Homeostasis in Human Placenta Tissues and Cell Culture

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a class of brominated flame retardants (BFRs) that have been heavily used in consumer products such as furniture foams, plastics, and textiles since the mid-1970’s. BFRs are added to products in order to meet state flammability standards intended to increase indoor safety in the event of a fire. The three commercial PBDE mixtures, Penta-, Octa-, and DecaBDE, have all been banned in the United States, however, limited use of DecaBDE is still permitted. PBDEs were phased out of production and added to the Stockholm Convention due to concerns over their environmental persistence and toxicity. Human exposure to PBDEs occurs primarily through the inadvertent ingestion of contaminated house dust, as well as though dietary sources. Despite the phase-out and discontinued use of PBDEs, human exposure to this class of chemicals is likely to continue for decades due to the continued use of treated products and existing environmental reservoirs of PBDEs. Extensive research over the years has shown that PBDEs disrupt thyroid hormone (TH) levels and neurodevelopmental endpoints in rodent and fish models. Additionally, there is growing epidemiological evidence linking PBDE exposure in humans to altered TH homeostasis and neurodevelopmental impairments in children. Due to the importance of THs throughout gestation, there is a great need to understand the effects of BFRs on the developing fetus. Specifically, the placenta plays a critical role in the transport, metabolism, and delivery of THs to the fetal compartment during pregnancy and is a likely target for BFR bioaccumulation and endocrine disruption. The central hypothesis of this dissertation research is that BFRs disrupt the activity of TH sulfotransferase (SULT) enzymes, thereby altering TH concentrations in the placenta.

In the first aim of this dissertation research, the concentrations of PBDEs and 2,4,6-TBP were measured in a cohort of 102 placenta tissue samples from an ongoing pregnancy cohort in Durham, NC. Methods were developed for the extraction and analysis of the BFR analytes. It was found that 2,4,6-TBP was significantly correlated with all PBDE analytes, indicating that 2,4,6-TBP may share common product applications with PBDEs or that 2,4,6-TBP is a metabolite of PBDE compounds. Additionally, this was the first study to measure 2,4,6-TBP in human placenta tissues.

In the second aim of this dissertation research, the placenta tissue concentrations of THs, as well as the endogenous activity of deiodinase (DI) and TH SULT enzymes were quantified using the same cohort of 102 placenta tissue samples. Enzyme activity was detected in all samples and this was the first study to measure TH DI and SULT activity in human placenta tissues. Enzyme activities and TH concentrations were compared with BFR concentrations measured in Aim 1. There were few statistically significant associations observed for the combined data, however, upon stratifying the data set based on infant sex, additional significant associations were observed. For example, among males, those with the highest concentrations of BDE-99 in placenta had T3 levels 0.80 times those with the lowest concentration of BDE-99 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.59, 1.07). Whereas females with the highest concentrations of BDE-99 in placenta had T3 levels 1.50 times those with the lowest concentration of BDE-99 (95% CI: 1.10, 2.04). Additionally, all BFR analyte concentrations were higher in the placenta of males versus females and they were significantly higher for 2,4,6-TBP and BDE-209. 3,3’-T2 SULT activity was significantly higher in female placenta tissues, while type 3 DI activity was significantly higher in male placenta tissues. This research is the first to show sex-specific differences in the bioaccumulation of BFRs in human placenta tissue, as well as differences in TH concentrations and endogenous DI and SULT activity. The underlying mechanisms of these observed sex differences warrant further investigation.

In the third aim of this dissertation research, the effects of BFRs were examined in a human choriocarcinoma placenta cell line, BeWo. Michaelis-Menten parameters and inhibition curves were calculated for 2,4,6-TBP, 3-OH BDE-47, and 6-OH BDE-47. 2,4,6-TBP was shown to be the most potent inhibitor of 3,3’-T2 SULT activity with a calculated IC50 value of 11.6 nM. It was also shown that 2,4,6-TBP and 3-OH BDE-47 exhibit mixed inhibition of 3,3’-T2 sulfation in BeWo cell homogenates. Next, a series of cell culture exposure experiments were performed using 1, 6, 12, and 24 hour exposure durations. Once again, 2,4,6-TBP was shown to be the most potent inhibitor of basal 3,3’-T2 SULT activity by significantly decreasing activity at the high and medium dose (1 M and 0.5 M, respectively) at all measured time points. Interestingly, BDE-99 was also shown to inhibit basal 3,3’-T2 SULT activity in BeWo cells following the 24 hour exposure, despite exhibiting no inhibitory effects in the BeWo cell homogenate experiments. This indicates that BDE-99 must act through a pathway other than direct enzyme inhibition. Following exposures, the TH concentrations in the cell culture growth media and mRNA expression of TH-related genes were also examined. There was no observed effect of BFR treatment on these endpoints. Future work should focus on determining the downstream biological effects of TH SULT disruption in placental cells, as well as the underlying mechanisms of action responsible for reductions in basal TH SULT activity following BFR exposure.

This was one of the first studies to measure BFRs in a cohort of placenta tissue samples from the United States and the first study to measure THs, DI activity, and SULT activity in human placenta tissues. This research provides a novel contribution to our growing understanding of the effects of BFRs on TH homeostasis within the human placenta, and provides further evidence for sex-specific differences within this important organ. Future research should continue to investigate the effects of environmental contaminants on TH homeostasis within the placenta, as this represents the most critical and vulnerable stage of human development.