Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

The evolutionary origin of Indian Ocean tortoises (Dipsochelys).

Today, the only surviving wild population of giant tortoises in the Indian Ocean occurs on the island of Aldabra. However, giant tortoises once inhabited islands throughout the western Indian Ocean. Madagascar, Africa, and India have all been suggested as possible sources of colonization for these islands. To address the origin of Indian Ocean tortoises (Dipsochelys, formerly Geochelone gigantea), we sequenced the 12S, 16S, and cyt b genes of the mitochondrial DNA. Our phylogenetic analysis shows Dipsochelys to be embedded within the Malagasy lineage, providing evidence that Indian Ocean giant tortoises are derived from a common Malagasy ancestor. This result points to Madagascar as the source of colonization for western Indian Ocean islands by giant tortoises. Tortoises are known to survive long oceanic voyages by floating with ocean currents, and thus, currents flowing northward towards the Aldabra archipelago from the east coast of Madagascar would have provided means for the colonization of western Indian Ocean islands. Additionally, we found an accelerated rate of sequence evolution in the two Malagasy Pyxis species examined. This finding supports previous theories that shorter generation time and smaller body size are related to an increase in mitochondrial DNA substitution rate in vertebrates.

Regulating the Ocean: Piracy and Protection along the East African Coast

From 2008-2012, a dramatic upsurge in incidents of maritime piracy in the Western Indian Ocean led to renewed global attention to this region: including the deployment of multi national naval patrols, attempts to prosecute suspected pirates, and the development of financial interdiction systems to track and stop the flow of piracy ransoms. Largely seen as the maritime ripple effect of anarchy on land, piracy has been slotted into narratives of state failure and problems of governance and criminality in this region.

This view fails to account for a number of factors that were crucial in making possible the unprecedented rise of Somali piracy and its contemporary transformation. Instead of an emphasis on failed states and crises of governance, my dissertation approaches maritime piracy within a historical and regional configuration of actors and relationships that precede this round of piracy and will outlive it. The story I tell in this work begins before the contemporary upsurge of piracy and closes with a foretaste of the itineraries beyond piracy that are being crafted along the East African coast.

Beginning in the world of port cities in the long nineteenth century, my dissertation locates piracy and the relationship between trade, plunder, and state formation within worlds of exchange, including European incursions into this oceanic space. Scholars of long distance trade have emphasized the sociality engendered through commerce and the centrality of idioms of trust and kinship in structuring mercantile relationships across oceanic divides. To complement this scholarship, my work brings into view the idiom of protection: as a claim to surety, a form of tax, and a moral claim to authority in trans-regional commerce.

To build this theory of protection, my work combines archival sources with a sustained ethnographic engagement in coastal East Africa, including the pirate ports of Northern Somalia, and focuses on the interaction between land-based pastoral economies and maritime trade. This connection between land and sea calls attention to two distinct visions of the ocean: one built around trade and mobility and the other built on the ocean as a space of extraction and sovereignty. Moving between historical encounters over trade and piracy and the development of a national maritime economy during the height of the Somali state, I link the contemporary upsurge of maritime piracy to the confluence of these two conceptualizations of the ocean and the ideas of capture, exchange, and redistribution embedded within them.

The second section of my dissertation reframes piracy as an economy of protection and a form of labor implicated within other legal and illegal economies in the Indian Ocean. Based on extensive field research, including interviews with self-identified pirates, I emphasize the forms of labor, value, and risk that characterize piracy as an economy of protection. The final section of my dissertation focuses on the diverse international, regional, and local responses to maritime piracy. This section locates the response to piracy within a post-Cold War and post-9/11 global order and longer attempts to regulate and assuage the risks of maritime trade. Through an ethnographic focus on maritime insurance markets, navies, and private security contractors, I analyze the centrality of protection as a calculation of risk and profit in the contemporary economy of counter-piracy.

Through this focus on longer histories of trade, empire, and regulation my dissertation reframes maritime piracy as an economy of protection straddling boundaries of land and sea, legality and illegality, law and economy, and history and anthropology.

Global Rates of Free Hydrogen (H2) Production by Serpentinization and other Abiogenic Processes within Young Ocean Crust

The main conclusion of this dissertation is that global H2 production within young ocean crust (<10 Mya) is higher than currently recognized, in part because current estimates of H2 production accompanying the serpentinization of peridotite may be too low (Chapter 2) and in part because a number of abiogenic H2-producing processes have heretofore gone unquantified (Chapter 3). The importance of free H2 to a range of geochemical processes makes the quantitative understanding of H2 production advanced in this dissertation pertinent to an array of open research questions across the geosciences (e.g. the origin and evolution of life and the oxidation of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans).

The first component of this dissertation (Chapter 2) examines H2 produced within young ocean crust [e.g. near the mid-ocean ridge (MOR)] by serpentinization. In the presence of water, olivine-rich rocks (peridotites) undergo serpentinization (hydration) at temperatures of up to ~500°C but only produce H2 at temperatures up to ~350°C. A simple analytical model is presented that mechanistically ties the process to seafloor spreading and explicitly accounts for the importance of temperature in H2 formation. The model suggests that H2 production increases with the rate of seafloor spreading and the net thickness of serpentinized peridotite (S-P) in a column of lithosphere. The model is applied globally to the MOR using conservative estimates for the net thickness of lithospheric S-P, our least certain model input. Despite the large uncertainties surrounding the amount of serpentinized peridotite within oceanic crust, conservative model parameters suggest a magnitude of H2 production (~1012 moles H2/y) that is larger than the most widely cited previous estimates (~1011 although previous estimates range from 1010-1012 moles H2/y). Certain model relationships are also consistent with what has been established through field studies, for example that the highest H2 fluxes (moles H2/km2 seafloor) are produced near slower-spreading ridges (<20 mm/y). Other modeled relationships are new and represent testable predictions. Principal among these is that about half of the H2 produced globally is produced off-axis beneath faster-spreading seafloor (>20 mm/y), a region where only one measurement of H2 has been made thus far and is ripe for future investigation.

In the second part of this dissertation (Chapter 3), I construct the first budget for free H2 in young ocean crust that quantifies and compares all currently recognized H2 sources and H2 sinks. First global estimates of budget components are proposed in instances where previous estimate(s) could not be located provided that the literature on that specific budget component was not too sparse to do so. Results suggest that the nine known H2 sources, listed in order of quantitative importance, are: Crystallization (6x1012 moles H2/y or 61% of total H2 production), serpentinization (2x1012 moles H2/y or 21%), magmatic degassing (7x1011 moles H2/y or 7%), lava-seawater interaction (5x1011 moles H2/y or 5%), low-temperature alteration of basalt (5x1011 moles H2/y or 5%), high-temperature alteration of basalt (3x1010 moles H2/y or <1%), catalysis (3x108 moles H2/y or <<1%), radiolysis (2x108 moles H2/y or <<1%), and pyrite formation (3x106 moles H2/y or <<1%). Next we consider two well-known H2 sinks, H2 lost to the ocean and H2 occluded within rock minerals, and our analysis suggests that both are of similar size (both are 6x1011 moles H2/y). Budgeting results suggest a large difference between H2 sources (total production = 1x1013 moles H2/y) and H2 sinks (total losses = 1x1011 moles H2/y). Assuming this large difference represents H2 consumed by microbes (total consumption = 9x1011 moles H2/y), we explore rates of primary production by the chemosynthetic, sub-seafloor biosphere. Although the numbers presented require further examination and future modifications, the analysis suggests that the sub-seafloor H2 budget is similar to the sub-seafloor CH4 budget in the sense that globally significant quantities of both of these reduced gases are produced beneath the seafloor but never escape the seafloor due to microbial consumption.

The third and final component of this dissertation (Chapter 4) explores the self-organization of barchan sand dune fields. In nature, barchan dunes typically exist as members of larger dune fields that display striking, enigmatic structures that cannot be readily explained by examining the dynamics at the scale of single dunes, or by appealing to patterns in external forcing. To explore the possibility that observed structures emerge spontaneously as a collective result of many dunes interacting with each other, we built a numerical model that treats barchans as discrete entities that interact with one another according to simplified rules derived from theoretical and numerical work, and from field observations: Dunes exchange sand through the fluxes that leak from the downwind side of each dune and are captured on their upstream sides; when dunes become sufficiently large, small dunes are born on their downwind sides (“calving”); and when dunes collide directly enough, they merge. Results show that these relatively simple interactions provide potential explanations for a range of field-scale phenomena including isolated patches of dunes and heterogeneous arrangements of similarly sized dunes in denser fields. The results also suggest that (1) dune field characteristics depend on the sand flux fed into the upwind boundary, although (2) moving downwind, the system approaches a common attracting state in which the memory of the upwind conditions vanishes. This work supports the hypothesis that calving exerts a first order control on field-scale phenomena; it prevents individual dunes from growing without bound, as single-dune analyses suggest, and allows the formation of roughly realistic, persistent dune field patterns.

Wave transformation and wave-driven flow across a steep coral reef

Observations of waves, setup, and wave-driven mean flows were made on a steep coral forereef and its associated lagoonal system on the north shore of Moorea, French Polynesia. Despite the steep and complex geometry of the forereef, and wave amplitudes that are nearly equal to the mean water depth, linear wave theory showed very good agreement with data. Measurements across the reef illustrate the importance of including both wave transport (owing to Stokes drift), as well as the Eulerian mean transport when computing the fluxes over the reef. Finally, the observed setup closely follows the theoretical relationship derived from classic radiation stress theory, although the two parameters that appear in the model-one reflecting wave breaking, the other the effective depth over the reef crest-must be chosen to match theory to data. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.