Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Reformulating time-dependent density functional theory with non-orthogonal localized molecular orbitals.

Time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) has broad application in the study of electronic response, excitation and transport. To extend such application to large and complex systems, we develop a reformulation of TDDFT equations in terms of non-orthogonal localized molecular orbitals (NOLMOs). NOLMO is the most localized representation of electronic degrees of freedom and has been used in ground state calculations. In atomic orbital (AO) representation, the sparsity of NOLMO is transferred to the coefficient matrix of molecular orbitals (MOs). Its novel use in TDDFT here leads to a very simple form of time propagation equations which can be solved with linear-scaling effort. We have tested the method for several long-chain saturated and conjugated molecular systems within the self-consistent charge density-functional tight-binding method (SCC-DFTB) and demonstrated its accuracy. This opens up pathways for TDDFT applications to large bio- and nano-systems.

Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Waveguide QED: Many-body bound-state effects in coherent and Fock-state scattering from a two-level system

Strong coupling between a two-level system (TLS) and bosonic modes produces dramatic quantum optics effects. We consider a one-dimensional continuum of bosons coupled to a single localized TLS, a system which may be realized in a variety of plasmonic, photonic, or electronic contexts. We present the exact many-body scattering eigenstate obtained by imposing open boundary conditions. Multiphoton bound states appear in the scattering of two or more photons due to the coupling between the photons and the TLS. Such bound states are shown to have a large effect on scattering of both Fock- and coherent-state wave packets, especially in the intermediate coupling-strength regime. We compare the statistics of the transmitted light with a coherent state having the same mean photon number: as the interaction strength increases, the one-photon probability is suppressed rapidly, and the two- and three-photon probabilities are greatly enhanced due to the many-body bound states. This results in non-Poissonian light. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Mammalian genes induce partially reprogrammed pluripotent stem cells in non-mammalian vertebrate and invertebrate species.

Cells are fundamental units of life, but little is known about evolution of cell states. Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) are once differentiated cells that have been re-programmed to an embryonic stem cell-like state, providing a powerful platform for biology and medicine. However, they have been limited to a few mammalian species. Here we found that a set of four mammalian transcription factor genes used to generate iPSCs in mouse and humans can induce a partially reprogrammed pluripotent stem cell (PRPSCs) state in vertebrate and invertebrate model organisms, in mammals, birds, fish, and fly, which span 550 million years from a common ancestor. These findings are one of the first to show cross-lineage stem cell-like induction, and to generate pluripotent-like cells for several of these species with in vivo chimeras. We suggest that the stem-cell state may be highly conserved across a wide phylogenetic range. DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00036.001.

Baby on board: olfactory cues indicate pregnancy and fetal sex in a non-human primate.

Olfactory cues play an integral, albeit underappreciated, role in mediating vertebrate social and reproductive behaviour. These cues fluctuate with the signaller's hormonal condition, coincident with and informative about relevant aspects of its reproductive state, such as pubertal onset, change in season and, in females, timing of ovulation. Although pregnancy dramatically alters a female's endocrine profiles, which can be further influenced by fetal sex, the relationship between gestation and olfactory cues is poorly understood. We therefore examined the effects of pregnancy and fetal sex on volatile genital secretions in the ring-tailed lemur (Lemur catta), a strepsirrhine primate possessing complex olfactory mechanisms of reproductive signalling. While pregnant, dams altered and dampened their expression of volatile chemicals, with compound richness being particularly reduced in dams bearing sons. These changes were comparable in magnitude with other, published chemical differences among lemurs that are salient to conspecifics. Such olfactory 'signatures' of pregnancy may help guide social interactions, potentially promoting mother-infant recognition, reducing intragroup conflict or counteracting behavioural mechanisms of paternity confusion; cues that also advertise fetal sex may additionally facilitate differential sex allocation.