Can a Broader Education Narrow the Gap? Evidence on Non-Academic Features of Schooling

Empirical studies of education programs and systems, by nature, rely upon use of student outcomes that are measurable. Often, these come in the form of test scores. However, in light of growing evidence about the long-run importance of other student skills and behaviors, the time has come for a broader approach to evaluating education. This dissertation undertakes experimental, quasi-experimental, and descriptive analyses to examine social, behavioral, and health-related mechanisms of the educational process. My overarching research question is simply, which inside- and outside-the-classroom features of schools and educational interventions are most beneficial to students in the long term? Furthermore, how can we apply this evidence toward informing policy that could effectively reduce stark social, educational, and economic inequalities?

The first study of three assesses mechanisms by which the Fast Track project, a randomized intervention in the early 1990s for high-risk children in four communities (Durham, NC; Nashville, TN; rural PA; and Seattle, WA), reduced delinquency, arrests, and health and mental health service utilization in adolescence through young adulthood (ages 12-20). A decomposition of treatment effects indicates that about a third of Fast Track’s impact on later crime outcomes can be accounted for by improvements in social and self-regulation skills during childhood (ages 6-11), such as prosocial behavior, emotion regulation and problem solving. These skills proved less valuable for the prevention of mental and physical health problems.

The second study contributes new evidence on how non-instructional investments – such as increased spending on school social workers, guidance counselors, and health services – affect multiple aspects of student performance and well-being. Merging several administrative data sources spanning the 1996-2013 school years in North Carolina, I use an instrumental variables approach to estimate the extent to which local expenditure shifts affect students’ academic and behavioral outcomes. My findings indicate that exogenous increases in spending on non-instructional services not only reduce student absenteeism and disciplinary problems (important predictors of long-term outcomes) but also significantly raise student achievement, in similar magnitude to corresponding increases in instructional spending. Furthermore, subgroup analyses suggest that investments in student support personnel such as social workers, health services, and guidance counselors, in schools with concentrated low-income student populations could go a long way toward closing socioeconomic achievement gaps.

The third study examines individual pathways that lead to high school graduation or dropout. It employs a variety of machine learning techniques, including decision trees, random forests with bagging and boosting, and support vector machines, to predict student dropout using longitudinal administrative data from North Carolina. I consider a large set of predictor measures from grades three through eight including academic achievement, behavioral indicators, and background characteristics. My findings indicate that the most important predictors include eighth grade absences, math scores, and age-for-grade as well as early reading scores. Support vector classification (with a high cost parameter and low gamma parameter) predicts high school dropout with the highest overall validity in the testing dataset at 90.1 percent followed by decision trees with boosting and interaction terms at 89.5 percent.

Stimulus Integration and Parsing in the Primate Auditory Midbrain

Integrating information from multiple sources is a crucial function of the brain. Examples of such integration include multiple stimuli of different modalties, such as visual and auditory, multiple stimuli of the same modality, such as auditory and auditory, and integrating stimuli from the sensory organs (i.e. ears) with stimuli delivered from brain-machine interfaces.

The overall aim of this body of work is to empirically examine stimulus integration in these three domains to inform our broader understanding of how and when the brain combines information from multiple sources.

First, I examine visually-guided auditory, a problem with implications for the general problem in learning of how the brain determines what lesson to learn (and what lessons not to learn). For example, sound localization is a behavior that is partially learned with the aid of vision. This process requires correctly matching a visual location to that of a sound. This is an intrinsically circular problem when sound location is itself uncertain and the visual scene is rife with possible visual matches. Here, we develop a simple paradigm using visual guidance of sound localization to gain insight into how the brain confronts this type of circularity. We tested two competing hypotheses. 1: The brain guides sound location learning based on the synchrony or simultaneity of auditory-visual stimuli, potentially involving a Hebbian associative mechanism. 2: The brain uses a ‘guess and check’ heuristic in which visual feedback that is obtained after an eye movement to a sound alters future performance, perhaps by recruiting the brain’s reward-related circuitry. We assessed the effects of exposure to visual stimuli spatially mismatched from sounds on performance of an interleaved auditory-only saccade task. We found that when humans and monkeys were provided the visual stimulus asynchronously with the sound but as feedback to an auditory-guided saccade, they shifted their subsequent auditory-only performance toward the direction of the visual cue by 1.3-1.7 degrees, or 22-28% of the original 6 degree visual-auditory mismatch. In contrast when the visual stimulus was presented synchronously with the sound but extinguished too quickly to provide this feedback, there was little change in subsequent auditory-only performance. Our results suggest that the outcome of our own actions is vital to localizing sounds correctly. Contrary to previous expectations, visual calibration of auditory space does not appear to require visual-auditory associations based on synchrony/simultaneity.

My next line of research examines how electrical stimulation of the inferior colliculus influences perception of sounds in a nonhuman primate. The central nucleus of the inferior colliculus is the major ascending relay of auditory information before it reaches the forebrain, and thus an ideal target for understanding low-level information processing prior to the forebrain, as almost all auditory signals pass through the central nucleus of the inferior colliculus before reaching the forebrain. Thus, the inferior colliculus is the ideal structure to examine to understand the format of the inputs into the forebrain and, by extension, the processing of auditory scenes that occurs in the brainstem. Therefore, the inferior colliculus was an attractive target for understanding stimulus integration in the ascending auditory pathway.

Moreover, understanding the relationship between the auditory selectivity of neurons and their contribution to perception is critical to the design of effective auditory brain prosthetics. These prosthetics seek to mimic natural activity patterns to achieve desired perceptual outcomes. We measured the contribution of inferior colliculus (IC) sites to perception using combined recording and electrical stimulation. Monkeys performed a frequency-based discrimination task, reporting whether a probe sound was higher or lower in frequency than a reference sound. Stimulation pulses were paired with the probe sound on 50% of trials (0.5-80 µA, 100-300 Hz, n=172 IC locations in 3 rhesus monkeys). Electrical stimulation tended to bias the animals’ judgments in a fashion that was coarsely but significantly correlated with the best frequency of the stimulation site in comparison to the reference frequency employed in the task. Although there was considerable variability in the effects of stimulation (including impairments in performance and shifts in performance away from the direction predicted based on the site’s response properties), the results indicate that stimulation of the IC can evoke percepts correlated with the frequency tuning properties of the IC. Consistent with the implications of recent human studies, the main avenue for improvement for the auditory midbrain implant suggested by our findings is to increase the number and spatial extent of electrodes, to increase the size of the region that can be electrically activated and provide a greater range of evoked percepts.

My next line of research employs a frequency-tagging approach to examine the extent to which multiple sound sources are combined (or segregated) in the nonhuman primate inferior colliculus. In the single-sound case, most inferior colliculus neurons respond and entrain to sounds in a very broad region of space, and many are entirely spatially insensitive, so it is unknown how the neurons will respond to a situation with more than one sound. I use multiple AM stimuli of different frequencies, which the inferior colliculus represents using a spike timing code. This allows me to measure spike timing in the inferior colliculus to determine which sound source is responsible for neural activity in an auditory scene containing multiple sounds. Using this approach, I find that the same neurons that are tuned to broad regions of space in the single sound condition become dramatically more selective in the dual sound condition, preferentially entraining spikes to stimuli from a smaller region of space. I will examine the possibility that there may be a conceptual linkage between this finding and the finding of receptive field shifts in the visual system.

In chapter 5, I will comment on these findings more generally, compare them to existing theoretical models, and discuss what these results tell us about processing in the central nervous system in a multi-stimulus situation. My results suggest that the brain is flexible in its processing and can adapt its integration schema to fit the available cues and the demands of the task.

Inequality, the Welfare State, and Demographic Change

This dissertation is a three-part analysis examining how the welfare state in advanced Western democracies has responded to recent demographic changes. Specifically, this dissertation investigates two primary relationships, beginning with the influence of government spending on poverty. I analyze two at-risk populations in particular: immigrants and children of single mothers. Next, attention is turned to the influence of individual and environmental traits on preferences for social spending. I focus specifically on religiosity, religious beliefs and religious identity. I pool data from a number of international macro- and micro-data sources including the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), International Social Survey Program (ISSP), the World Bank Databank, and the OECD Databank. Analyses highlight the power of the welfare state to reduce poverty, but also the effectiveness of specific areas of spending focused on addressing new social risks. While previous research has touted the strength of the welfare state, my analyses highlight the need to consider new social risks and encourage closer attention to how social position affects preferences for the welfare state.

Combining Information from Multiple Sources in Bayesian Modeling

Surveys can collect important data that inform policy decisions and drive social science research. Large government surveys collect information from the U.S. population on a wide range of topics, including demographics, education, employment, and lifestyle. Analysis of survey data presents unique challenges. In particular, one needs to account for missing data, for complex sampling designs, and for measurement error. Conceptually, a survey organization could spend lots of resources getting high-quality responses from a simple random sample, resulting in survey data that are easy to analyze. However, this scenario often is not realistic. To address these practical issues, survey organizations can leverage the information available from other sources of data. For example, in longitudinal studies that suffer from attrition, they can use the information from refreshment samples to correct for potential attrition bias. They can use information from known marginal distributions or survey design to improve inferences. They can use information from gold standard sources to correct for measurement error.

This thesis presents novel approaches to combining information from multiple sources that address the three problems described above.

The first method addresses nonignorable unit nonresponse and attrition in a panel survey with a refreshment sample. Panel surveys typically suffer from attrition, which can lead to biased inference when basing analysis only on cases that complete all waves of the panel. Unfortunately, the panel data alone cannot inform the extent of the bias due to attrition, so analysts must make strong and untestable assumptions about the missing data mechanism. Many panel studies also include refreshment samples, which are data collected from a random sample of new

individuals during some later wave of the panel. Refreshment samples offer information that can be utilized to correct for biases induced by nonignorable attrition while reducing reliance on strong assumptions about the attrition process. To date, these bias correction methods have not dealt with two key practical issues in panel studies: unit nonresponse in the initial wave of the panel and in the

refreshment sample itself. As we illustrate, nonignorable unit nonresponse

can significantly compromise the analyst's ability to use the refreshment samples for attrition bias correction. Thus, it is crucial for analysts to assess how sensitive their inferences---corrected for panel attrition---are to different assumptions about the nature of the unit nonresponse. We present an approach that facilitates such sensitivity analyses, both for suspected nonignorable unit nonresponse

in the initial wave and in the refreshment sample. We illustrate the approach using simulation studies and an analysis of data from the 2007-2008 Associated Press/Yahoo News election panel study.

The second method incorporates informative prior beliefs about

marginal probabilities into Bayesian latent class models for categorical data.

The basic idea is to append synthetic observations to the original data such that

(i) the empirical distributions of the desired margins match those of the prior beliefs, and (ii) the values of the remaining variables are left missing. The degree of prior uncertainty is controlled by the number of augmented records. Posterior inferences can be obtained via typical MCMC algorithms for latent class models, tailored to deal efficiently with the missing values in the concatenated data.

We illustrate the approach using a variety of simulations based on data from the American Community Survey, including an example of how augmented records can be used to fit latent class models to data from stratified samples.

The third method leverages the information from a gold standard survey to model reporting error. Survey data are subject to reporting error when respondents misunderstand the question or accidentally select the wrong response. Sometimes survey respondents knowingly select the wrong response, for example, by reporting a higher level of education than they actually have attained. We present an approach that allows an analyst to model reporting error by incorporating information from a gold standard survey. The analyst can specify various reporting error models and assess how sensitive their conclusions are to different assumptions about the reporting error process. We illustrate the approach using simulations based on data from the 1993 National Survey of College Graduates. We use the method to impute error-corrected educational attainments in the 2010 American Community Survey using the 2010 National Survey of College Graduates as the gold standard survey.