A theory of buyer-seller networks

This paper introduces a new model of exchange: networks, rather than markets, of buyers and sellers. It begins with the empirically motivated premise that a buyer and seller must have a relationship, a "link," to exchange goods. Networks - buyers, sellers, and the pattern of links connecting them - are common exchange environments. This paper develops a methodology to study network structures and explains why agents may form networks. In a model that captures characteristics of a variety of industries, the paper shows that buyers and sellers, acting strategically in their own self-interests, can form the network structures that maximize overall welfare.

Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Understanding GPU programming for statistical computation: Studies in massively parallel massive mixtures

This article describes advances in statistical computation for large-scale data analysis in structured Bayesian mixture models via graphics processing unit (GPU) programming. The developments are partly motivated by computational challenges arising in fitting models of increasing heterogeneity to increasingly large datasets. An example context concerns common biological studies using high-throughput technologies generating many, very large datasets and requiring increasingly high-dimensional mixture models with large numbers of mixture components.We outline important strategies and processes for GPU computation in Bayesian simulation and optimization approaches, give examples of the benefits of GPU implementations in terms of processing speed and scale-up in ability to analyze large datasets, and provide a detailed, tutorial-style exposition that will benefit readers interested in developing GPU-based approaches in other statistical models. Novel, GPU-oriented approaches to modifying existing algorithms software design can lead to vast speed-up and, critically, enable statistical analyses that presently will not be performed due to compute time limitations in traditional computational environments. Supplementalmaterials are provided with all source code, example data, and details that will enable readers to implement and explore the GPU approach in this mixture modeling context. © 2010 American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Interface Foundation of North America.

A unified anatomy ontology of the vertebrate skeletal system.

The skeleton is of fundamental importance in research in comparative vertebrate morphology, paleontology, biomechanics, developmental biology, and systematics. Motivated by research questions that require computational access to and comparative reasoning across the diverse skeletal phenotypes of vertebrates, we developed a module of anatomical concepts for the skeletal system, the Vertebrate Skeletal Anatomy Ontology (VSAO), to accommodate and unify the existing skeletal terminologies for the species-specific (mouse, the frog Xenopus, zebrafish) and multispecies (teleost, amphibian) vertebrate anatomy ontologies. Previous differences between these terminologies prevented even simple queries across databases pertaining to vertebrate morphology. This module of upper-level and specific skeletal terms currently includes 223 defined terms and 179 synonyms that integrate skeletal cells, tissues, biological processes, organs (skeletal elements such as bones and cartilages), and subdivisions of the skeletal system. The VSAO is designed to integrate with other ontologies, including the Common Anatomy Reference Ontology (CARO), Gene Ontology (GO), Uberon, and Cell Ontology (CL), and it is freely available to the community to be updated with additional terms required for research. Its structure accommodates anatomical variation among vertebrate species in development, structure, and composition. Annotation of diverse vertebrate phenotypes with this ontology will enable novel inquiries across the full spectrum of phenotypic diversity.

Core and Shell Song Systems Unique to the Parrot Brain.

The ability to imitate complex sounds is rare, and among birds has been found only in parrots, songbirds, and hummingbirds. Parrots exhibit the most advanced vocal mimicry among non-human animals. A few studies have noted differences in connectivity, brain position and shape in the vocal learning systems of parrots relative to songbirds and hummingbirds. However, only one parrot species, the budgerigar, has been examined and no differences in the presence of song system structures were found with other avian vocal learners. Motivated by questions of whether there are important differences in the vocal systems of parrots relative to other vocal learners, we used specialized constitutive gene expression, singing-driven gene expression, and neural connectivity tracing experiments to further characterize the song system of budgerigars and/or other parrots. We found that the parrot brain uniquely contains a song system within a song system. The parrot "core" song system is similar to the song systems of songbirds and hummingbirds, whereas the "shell" song system is unique to parrots. The core with only rudimentary shell regions were found in the New Zealand kea, representing one of the only living species at a basal divergence with all other parrots, implying that parrots evolved vocal learning systems at least 29 million years ago. Relative size differences in the core and shell regions occur among species, which we suggest could be related to species differences in vocal and cognitive abilities.

Do debit cards increase household spending? Evidence from a semiparametric causal analysis of a survey

© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2014.Motivated by recent findings in the field of consumer science, this paper evaluates the causal effect of debit cards on household consumption using population-based data from the Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW). Within the Rubin Causal Model, we focus on the estimand of population average treatment effect for the treated (PATT). We consider three existing estimators, based on regression, mixed matching and regression, propensity score weighting, and propose a new doubly-robust estimator. Semiparametric specification based on power series for the potential outcomes and the propensity score is adopted. Cross-validation is used to select the order of the power series. We conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of the estimators. The key assumptions, overlap and unconfoundedness, are systematically assessed and validated in the application. Our empirical results suggest statistically significant positive effects of debit cards on the monthly household spending in Italy.

Recruiting young adults into a weight loss trial: report of protocol development and recruitment results.

Obesity has spread to all segments of the U.S. population. Young adults, aged 18-35 years, are rarely represented in clinical weight loss trials. We conducted a qualitative study to identify factors that may facilitate recruitment of young adults into a weight loss intervention trial. Participants were 33 adults aged 18-35 years with BMI ≥25 kg/m(2). Six group discussions were conducted using the nominal group technique. Health, social image, and "self" factors such as emotions, self-esteem, and confidence were reported as reasons to pursue weight loss. Physical activity, dietary intake, social support, medical intervention, and taking control (e.g. being motivated) were perceived as the best weight loss strategies. Incentives, positive outcomes, education, convenience, and social support were endorsed as reasons young adults would consider participating in a weight loss study. Incentives, advertisement, emphasizing benefits, and convenience were endorsed as ways to recruit young adults. These results informed the Cellphone Intervention for You (CITY) marketing and advertising, including message framing and advertising avenues. Implications for recruitment methods are discussed.

A framework for revising preservice curriculum for nonphysician clinicians: The mozambique experience.

Mozambique, with approximately 0.4 physicians and 4.1 nurses per 10,000 people, has one of the lowest ratios of health care providers to population in the world. To rapidly scale up health care coverage, the Mozambique Ministry of Health has pushed for greater investment in training nonphysician clinicians, Tιcnicos de Medicina (TM). Based on identified gaps in TM clinical performance, the Ministry of Health requested technical assistance from the International Training and Education Center for Health (I-TECH) to revise the two-and-a-half-year preservice curriculum. A six-step process was used to revise the curriculum: (i) Conducting a task analysis, (ii) defining a new curriculum approach and selecting an integrated model of subject and competency-based education, (iii) revising and restructuring the 30-month course schedule to emphasize clinical skills, (iv) developing a detailed syllabus for each course, (v) developing content for each lesson, and (vi) evaluating implementation and integrating feedback for ongoing improvement. In May 2010, the Mozambique Minister of Health approved the revised curriculum, which is currently being implemented in 10 training institutions around the country. Key lessons learned: (i) Detailed assessment of training institutions' strengths and weaknesses should inform curriculum revision. (ii) Establishing a Technical Working Group with respected and motivated clinicians is key to promoting local buy-in and ownership. (iii) Providing ready-to-use didactic material helps to address some challenges commonly found in resource-limited settings. (iv) Comprehensive curriculum revision is an important first step toward improving the quality of training provided to health care providers in developing countries. Other aspects of implementation at training institutions and health care facilities must also be addressed to ensure that providers are adequately trained and equipped to provide quality health care services. This approach to curriculum revision and implementation teaches several key lessons, which may be applicable to preservice training programs in other less developed countries.

Understanding the Context for Long-Term Care Planning.

Evolving family structure and economic conditions may affect individuals' ability and willingness to plan for future long-term care (LTC) needs. We applied life course constructs to analyze focus group data from a study of family decision making about LTC insurance. Participants described how past exposure to caregiving motivated them to engage in LTC planning; in contrast, child rearing discouraged LTC planning. Perceived institutional and economic instability drove individuals to regard financial LTC planning as either a wise precaution or another risk. Perceived economic instability also shaped opinions that adult children are ill-equipped to support parents' LTC. Despite concerns about viability of social insurance programs, some participants described strategies to maximize gains from them. Changing norms around aging and family roles also affected expectations of an active older age, innovative LTC options, and limitations to adult children's involvement. Understanding life course context can inform policy efforts to encourage LTC planning.