A Quantitative Analysis of Growth and Size Regulation in Manduca sexta: The Physiological Basis of Variation in Size and Age at Metamorphosis.

Body size and development time are important life history traits because they are often highly correlated with fitness. Although the developmental mechanisms that control growth have been well studied, the mechanisms that control how a species-characteristic body size is achieved remain poorly understood. In insects adult body size is determined by the number of larval molts, the size increment at each molt, and the mechanism that determines during which instar larval growth will stop. Adult insects do not grow, so the size at which a larva stops growing determines adult body size. Here we develop a quantitative understanding of the kinetics of growth throughout larval life of Manduca sexta, under different conditions of nutrition and temperature, and for genetic strains with different adult body sizes. We show that the generally accepted view that the size increment at each molt is constant (Dyar's Rule) is systematically violated: there is actually a progressive increase in the size increment from instar to instar that is independent of temperature. In addition, the mass-specific growth rate declines throughout the growth phase in a temperature-dependent manner. We show that growth within an instar follows a truncated Gompertz trajectory. The critical weight, which determines when in an instar a molt will occur, and the threshold size, which determines which instar is the last, are different in genetic strains with different adult body sizes. Under nutrient and temperature stress Manduca has a variable number of larval instars and we show that this is due to the fact that more molts at smaller increments are taken before threshold size is reached. We test whether the new insight into the kinetics of growth and size determination are sufficient to explain body size and development time through a mathematical model that incorporates our quantitative findings.

A Predictive Thermal Habitat Model for Harbor Seals in the Northwest Atlantic

We analyzed projections of current and future ambient temperatures along the eastern United States in relationship to the thermal tolerance of harbor seals in air. Using the earth systems model (HadGEM2-ES) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, which are indicative of two different atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we were able to examine possible shifts in distribution based on three metrics: current preferences, the thermal limit of juveniles, and the thermal limits of adults. Our analysis focused on average ambient temperatures because harbor seals are least effective at regulating their body temperature in air, making them most susceptible to rising air temperatures in the coming years. Our study focused on the months of May, June, and August from 2041-2060 (2050) and 2061-2080 (2070) as these are the historic months in which harbor seals are known to annually come ashore to pup, breed, and molt. May, June, and August are also some of the warmest months of the year. We found that breeding colonies along the eastern United States will be limited by the thermal tolerance of juvenile harbor seals in air, while their foraging range will extend as far south as the thermal tolerance of adult harbor seals in air. Our analysis revealed that in 2070, harbor seal pups should be absent from the United States coastline nearing the end of the summer due to exceptionally high air temperatures.