Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States-Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci.

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted.

The Use of Agricultural Chemicals and Mosquito Response to Pyrethroids in Bungoma Sub-county,Western Kenya

Insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying are the most widely used vector control methods in Africa. The World Health Organization now recommends four classes of insecticides for use against adult mosquitoes in public health programs. Of these four classes of insecticides, pyrethroids have become the insecticides of choice in treating mosquito bed nets and in the use of indoor spraying to prevent malaria transmission. Pyrethroids are not only used in malaria control but also in agriculture to protect against pest insects. This concurrent use of pyrethroids in vector control and protection of crops from pests in agriculture may exert selection pressure on mosquito larval population and induce resistance to this class of insecticides. The main objective of our study was to explore the role of agricultural chemicals and the response of mosquitoes to pyrethroids in an area of high malaria transmission.

We used a cross-sectional study design. This was a two-step study involving both mosquitoes and human subjects. In this study, we collected larvae growing in breeding sites affected by different agricultural practices. We used purposive sampling to identify active mosquito breeding sites and then interviewed households adjacent to those breeding sites to learn about their agricultural practices that might influence the response of mosquitoes to pyrethroids. We also performed secondary analysis of larval data from a previous case-control study by Obala et al.