The cost of biopharmaceutical R&D: Is biotech different?

The costs of developing the types of new drugs that have been pursued by traditional pharmaceutical firms have been estimated in a number of studies. However, similar analyses have not been published on the costs of developing the types of molecules on which biotech firms have focused. This study represents a first attempt to get a sense for the magnitude of the R&D costs associated with the discovery and development of new therapeutic biopharmaceuticals (specifically, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies [mAbs]). We utilize drug-specific data on cash outlays, development times, and success in obtaining regulatory marketing approval to estimate the average pre-tax R&D resource cost for biopharmaceuticals up to the point of initial US marketing approval (in year 2005 dollars). We found average out-of-pocket (cash outlay) cost estimates per approved biopharmaceutical of $198 million, $361 million, and $559 million for the preclinical period, the clinical period, and in total, respectively. Including the time costs associated with biopharmaceutical R&D, we found average capitalized cost estimates per approved biopharmaceutical of $615 million, $626 million, and $1241 million for the preclinical period, the clinical period, and in total, respectively. Adjusting previously published estimates of R&D costs for traditional pharmaceutical firms by using past growth rates for pharmaceutical company costs to correspond to the more recent period to which our biopharmaceutical data apply, we found that total out-of-pocket cost per approved biopharmaceutical was somewhat lower than for the pharmaceutical company data ($559 million vs $672 million). However, estimated total capitalized cost per approved new molecule was nearly the same for biopharmaceuticals as for the adjusted pharmaceutical company data ($1241 million versus $1318 million). The results should be viewed with some caution for now given a limited number of biopharmaceutical molecules with data on cash outlays, different therapeutic class distributions for biopharmaceuticals and for pharmaceutical company drugs, and uncertainty about whether recent growth rates in pharmaceutical company costs are different from immediate past growth rates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Valuing ecosystem services from wetlands restoration in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

This study assesses the value of restoring forested wetlands via the U.S. government's Wetlands Reserve Program (WRP) in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley by quantifying and monetizing ecosystem services. The three focal services are greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, nitrogen mitigation, and waterfowl recreation. Site- and region-level measurements of these ecosystem services are combined with process models to quantify their production on agricultural land, which serves as the baseline, and on restored wetlands. We adjust and transform these measures into per-hectare, valuation-ready units and monetize them with prices from emerging ecosystem markets and the environmental economics literature. By valuing three of the many ecosystem services produced, we generate lower bound estimates for the total ecosystem value of the wetlands restoration. Social welfare value is found to be between $1435 and $1486/ha/year, with GHG mitigation valued in the range of $171 to $222, nitrogen mitigation at $1248, and waterfowl recreation at $16. Limited to existing markets, the estimate for annual market value is merely $70/ha, but when fully accounting for potential markets, this estimate rises to $1035/ha. The estimated social value surpasses the public expenditure or social cost of wetlands restoration in only 1 year, indicating that the return on public investment is very attractive for the WRP. Moreover, the potential market value is substantially greater than landowner opportunity costs, showing that payments to private landowners to restore wetlands could also be profitable for individual landowners. © 2009 Elsevier B.V.

On-board Robotic Multi-pinhole SPECT System for Region-of-interest (ROI) Imaging

On-board image guidance, such as cone-beam CT (CBCT) and kV/MV 2D imaging, is essential in many radiation therapy procedures, such as intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) and stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). These imaging techniques provide predominantly anatomical information for treatment planning and target localization. Recently, studies have shown that treatment planning based on functional and molecular information about the tumor and surrounding tissue could potentially improve the effectiveness of radiation therapy. However, current on-board imaging systems are limited in their functional and molecular imaging capability. Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography (SPECT) is a candidate to achieve on-board functional and molecular imaging. Traditional SPECT systems typically take 20 minutes or more for a scan, which is too long for on-board imaging. A robotic multi-pinhole SPECT system was proposed in this dissertation to provide shorter imaging time by using a robotic arm to maneuver the multi-pinhole SPECT system around the patient in position for radiation therapy.

A 49-pinhole collimated SPECT detector and its shielding were designed and simulated in this work using the computer-aided design (CAD) software. The trajectories of robotic arm about the patient, treatment table and gantry in the radiation therapy room and several detector assemblies such as parallel holes, single pinhole and 49 pinholes collimated detector were investigated. The rail mounted system was designed to enable a full range of detector positions and orientations to various crucial treatment sites including head and torso, while avoiding collision with linear accelerator (LINAC), patient table and patient.

An alignment method was developed in this work to calibrate the on-board robotic SPECT to the LINAC coordinate frame and to the coordinate frames of other on-board imaging systems such as CBCT. This alignment method utilizes line sources and one pinhole projection of these line sources. The model consists of multiple alignment parameters which maps line sources in 3-dimensional (3D) space to their 2-dimensional (2D) projections on the SPECT detector. Computer-simulation studies and experimental evaluations were performed as a function of number of line sources, Radon transform accuracy, finite line-source width, intrinsic camera resolution, Poisson noise and acquisition geometry. In computer-simulation studies, when there was no error in determining angles (α) and offsets (ρ) of the measured projections, the six alignment parameters (3 translational and 3 rotational) were estimated perfectly using three line sources. When angles (α) and offsets (ρ) were provided by Radon transform, the estimation accuracy was reduced. The estimation error was associated with rounding errors of Radon transform, finite line-source width, Poisson noise, number of line sources, intrinsic camera resolution and detector acquisition geometry. The estimation accuracy was significantly improved by using 4 line sources rather than 3 and also by using thinner line-source projections (obtained by better intrinsic detector resolution). With 5 line sources, median errors were 0.2 mm for the detector translations, 0.7 mm for the detector radius of rotation, and less than 0.5° for detector rotation, tilt and twist. In experimental evaluations, average errors relative to a different, independent registration technique were about 1.8 mm for detector translations, 1.1 mm for the detector radius of rotation (ROR), 0.5° and 0.4° for detector rotation and tilt, respectively, and 1.2° for detector twist.

Simulation studies were performed to investigate the improvement of imaging sensitivity and accuracy of hot sphere localization for breast imaging of patients in prone position. A 3D XCAT phantom was simulated in the prone position with nine hot spheres of 10 mm diameter added in the left breast. A no-treatment-table case and two commercial prone breast boards, 7 and 24 cm thick, were simulated. Different pinhole focal lengths were assessed for root-mean-square-error (RMSE). The pinhole focal lengths resulting in the lowest RMSE values were 12 cm, 18 cm and 21 cm for no table, thin board, and thick board, respectively. In both no table and thin board cases, all 9 hot spheres were easily visualized above background with 4-minute scans utilizing the 49-pinhole SPECT system while seven of nine hot spheres were visible with the thick board. In comparison with parallel-hole system, our 49-pinhole system shows reduction in noise and bias under these simulation cases. These results correspond to smaller radii of rotation for no-table case and thinner prone board. Similarly, localization accuracy with the 49-pinhole system was significantly better than with the parallel-hole system for both the thin and thick prone boards. Median localization errors for the 49-pinhole system with the thin board were less than 3 mm for 5 of 9 hot spheres, and less than 6 mm for the other 4 hot spheres. Median localization errors of 49-pinhole system with the thick board were less than 4 mm for 5 of 9 hot spheres, and less than 8 mm for the other 4 hot spheres.

Besides prone breast imaging, respiratory-gated region-of-interest (ROI) imaging of lung tumor was also investigated. A simulation study was conducted on the potential of multi-pinhole, region-of-interest (ROI) SPECT to alleviate noise effects associated with respiratory-gated SPECT imaging of the thorax. Two 4D XCAT digital phantoms were constructed, with either a 10 mm or 20 mm diameter tumor added in the right lung. The maximum diaphragm motion was 2 cm (for 10 mm tumor) or 4 cm (for 20 mm tumor) in superior-inferior direction and 1.2 cm in anterior-posterior direction. Projections were simulated with a 4-minute acquisition time (40 seconds per each of 6 gates) using either the ROI SPECT system (49-pinhole) or reference single and dual conventional broad cross-section, parallel-hole collimated SPECT. The SPECT images were reconstructed using OSEM with up to 6 iterations. Images were evaluated as a function of gate by profiles, noise versus bias curves, and a numerical observer performing a forced-choice localization task. Even for the 20 mm tumor, the 49-pinhole imaging ROI was found sufficient to encompass fully usual clinical ranges of diaphragm motion. Averaged over the 6 gates, noise at iteration 6 of 49-pinhole ROI imaging (10.9 µCi/ml) was approximately comparable to noise at iteration 2 of the two dual and single parallel-hole, broad cross-section systems (12.4 µCi/ml and 13.8 µCi/ml, respectively). Corresponding biases were much lower for the 49-pinhole ROI system (3.8 µCi/ml), versus 6.2 µCi/ml and 6.5 µCi/ml for the dual and single parallel-hole systems, respectively. Median localization errors averaged over 6 gates, for the 10 mm and 20 mm tumors respectively, were 1.6 mm and 0.5 mm using the ROI imaging system and 6.6 mm and 2.3 mm using the dual parallel-hole, broad cross-section system. The results demonstrate substantially improved imaging via ROI methods. One important application may be gated imaging of patients in position for radiation therapy.

A robotic SPECT imaging system was constructed utilizing a gamma camera detector (Digirad 2020tc) and a robot (KUKA KR150-L110 robot). An imaging study was performed with a phantom (PET CT PhantomTM), which includes 5 spheres of 10, 13, 17, 22 and 28 mm in diameter. The phantom was placed on a flat-top couch. SPECT projections were acquired with a parallel-hole collimator and a single-pinhole collimator both without background in the phantom, and with background at 1/10th the sphere activity concentration. The imaging trajectories of parallel-hole and pinhole collimated detectors spanned 180 degrees and 228 degrees respectively. The pinhole detector viewed a 14.7 cm-diameter common volume which encompassed the 28 mm and 22 mm spheres. The common volume for parallel-hole was a 20.8-cm-diameter cylinder which encompassed all five spheres in the phantom. The maneuverability of the robotic system was tested by navigating the detector to trace the flat-top table while avoiding collision with the table and maintaining the closest possible proximity to the common volume. For image reconstruction, detector trajectories were described by radius-of-rotation and detector rotation angle θ. These reconstruction parameters were obtained from the robot base and tool coordinates. The robotic SPECT system was able to maneuver the parallel-hole and pinhole collimated SPECT detectors in close proximity to the phantom, minimizing impact of the flat-top couch on detector to center-of-rotation (COR) distance. In no background case, all five spheres were visible in the reconstructed parallel-hole and pinhole images. In with background case, three spheres of 17, 22 and 28 mm diameter were readily observed with the parallel-hole imaging, and the targeted spheres (22 and 28 mm diameter) were readily observed in the pinhole ROI imaging.

In conclusion, the proposed on-board robotic SPECT can be aligned to LINAC/CBCT with a single pinhole projection of the line-source phantom. Alignment parameters can be estimated using one pinhole projection of line sources. This alignment method may be important for multi-pinhole SPECT, where relative pinhole alignment may vary during rotation. For single pinhole and multi-pinhole SPECT imaging onboard radiation therapy machines, the method could provide alignment of SPECT coordinates with those of CBCT and the LINAC. In simulation studies of prone breast imaging and respiratory-gated lung imaging, the 49-pinhole detector showed better tumor contrast recovery and localization in a 4-minute scan compared to parallel-hole detector. On-board SPECT could be achieved by a robot maneuvering a SPECT detector about patients in position for radiation therapy on a flat-top couch. The robot inherent coordinate frames could be an effective means to estimate detector pose for use in SPECT image reconstruction.

Unipedal balance is affected by lower extremity joint arthroplasty procedure 1 year following surgery.

Lower Extremity Joint Arthroplasty (LEJA) surgery is an effective way to alleviate painful osteoarthritis. Unfortunately, these surgeries do not normalize the loading asymmetry during the single leg stance phase of gait. Therefore, we examined single leg balance in 234 TJA patients (75 hips, 65 knees, 94 ankles) approximately 12 months following surgery. Patients passed if they maintained single leg balance for 10s with their eyes open. Patients one year following total hip arthroplasty (THA-63%) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA-69%) had similar pass rates compared to a total ankle arthroplasty (TAA-9%). Patients following THA and TKA exhibit better unilateral balance in comparison with TAA patients. It may be beneficial to include a rigorous proprioception and balance training program in TAA patients to optimize functional outcomes.

Dietary inference from upper and lower molar morphology in platyrrhine primates.

The correlation between diet and dental topography is of importance to paleontologists seeking to diagnose ecological adaptations in extinct taxa. Although the subject is well represented in the literature, few studies directly compare methods or evaluate dietary signals conveyed by both upper and lower molars. Here, we address this gap in our knowledge by comparing the efficacy of three measures of functional morphology for classifying an ecologically diverse sample of thirteen medium- to large-bodied platyrrhines by diet category (e.g., folivore, frugivore, hard object feeder). We used Shearing Quotient (SQ), an index derived from linear measurements of molar cutting edges and two indices of crown surface topography, Occlusal Relief (OR) and Relief Index (RFI). Using SQ, OR, and RFI, individuals were then classified by dietary category using Discriminate Function Analysis. Both upper and lower molar variables produce high classification rates in assigning individuals to diet categories, but lower molars are consistently more successful. SQs yield the highest classification rates. RFI and OR generally perform above chance. Upper molar RFI has a success rate below the level of chance. Adding molar length enhances the discriminatory power for all variables. We conclude that upper molar SQs are useful for dietary reconstruction, especially when combined with body size information. Additionally, we find that among our sample of platyrrhines, SQ remains the strongest predictor of diet, while RFI is less useful at signaling dietary differences in absence of body size information. The study demonstrates new ways for inferring the diets of extinct platyrrhine primates when both upper and lower molars are available, or, for taxa known only from upper molars. The techniques are useful in reconstructing diet in stem representatives of anthropoid clade, who share key aspects of molar morphology with extant platyrrhines.

PenPC: A two-step approach to estimate the skeletons of high-dimensional directed acyclic graphs.

Estimation of the skeleton of a directed acyclic graph (DAG) is of great importance for understanding the underlying DAG and causal effects can be assessed from the skeleton when the DAG is not identifiable. We propose a novel method named PenPC to estimate the skeleton of a high-dimensional DAG by a two-step approach. We first estimate the nonzero entries of a concentration matrix using penalized regression, and then fix the difference between the concentration matrix and the skeleton by evaluating a set of conditional independence hypotheses. For high-dimensional problems where the number of vertices p is in polynomial or exponential scale of sample size n, we study the asymptotic property of PenPC on two types of graphs: traditional random graphs where all the vertices have the same expected number of neighbors, and scale-free graphs where a few vertices may have a large number of neighbors. As illustrated by extensive simulations and applications on gene expression data of cancer patients, PenPC has higher sensitivity and specificity than the state-of-the-art method, the PC-stable algorithm.

Do You Want to Hear the Bad News? The Value of Diagnostic Tests for Alzheimer's Disease.

OBJECTIVE: The diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains difficult. Lack of diagnostic certainty or possible distress related to a positive result from diagnostic testing could limit the application of new testing technologies. The objective of this paper is to quantify respondents' preferences for obtaining AD diagnostic tests and to estimate the perceived value of AD test information. METHODS: Discrete-choice experiment and contingent-valuation questions were administered to respondents in Germany and the United Kingdom. Choice data were analyzed by using random-parameters logit. A probit model characterized respondents who were not willing to take a test. RESULTS: Most respondents indicated a positive value for AD diagnostic test information. Respondents who indicated an interest in testing preferred brain imaging without the use of radioactive markers. German respondents had relatively lower money-equivalent values for test features compared with respondents in the United Kingdom. CONCLUSIONS: Respondents preferred less invasive diagnostic procedures and tests with higher accuracy and expressed a willingness to pay up to €700 to receive a less invasive test with the highest accuracy.