Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Cost of wind energy: comparing distant wind resources to local resources in the midwestern United States.

The best wind sites in the United States are often located far from electricity demand centers and lack transmission access. Local sites that have lower quality wind resources but do not require as much power transmission capacity are an alternative to distant wind resources. In this paper, we explore the trade-offs between developing new wind generation at local sites and installing wind farms at remote sites. We first examine the general relationship between the high capital costs required for local wind development and the relatively lower capital costs required to install a wind farm capable of generating the same electrical output at a remote site,with the results representing the maximum amount an investor should be willing to pay for transmission access. We suggest that this analysis can be used as a first step in comparing potential wind resources to meet a state renewable portfolio standard (RPS). To illustrate, we compare the cost of local wind (∼50 km from the load) to the cost of distant wind requiring new transmission (∼550-750 km from the load) to meet the Illinois RPS. We find that local, lower capacity factor wind sites are the lowest cost option for meeting the Illinois RPS if new long distance transmission is required to access distant, higher capacity factor wind resources. If higher capacity wind sites can be connected to the existing grid at minimal cost, in many cases they will have lower costs.

Exact analytical expressions for the potential of electrical double layer interactions for a sphere-plate system.

Exact, closed-form analytical expressions are presented for evaluating the potential energy of electrical double layer (EDL) interactions between a sphere and an infinite flat plate for three different types of interactions: constant potential, constant charge, and an intermediate case as given by the linear superposition approximation (LSA). By taking advantage of the simpler sphere-plate geometry, simplifying assumptions used in the original Derjaguin approximation (DA) for sphere-sphere interaction are avoided, yielding expressions that are more accurate and applicable over the full range of κa. These analytical expressions are significant improvements over the existing equations in the literature that are valid only for large κa because the new equations facilitate the modeling of EDL interactions between nanoscale particles and surfaces over a wide range of ionic strength.

Survey of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of the coal ash spill in Kingston, Tennessee.

An investigation of the potential environmental and health impacts in the immediate aftermath of one of the largest coal ash spills in U.S. history at the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Kingston coal-burning power plant has revealed three major findings. First the surface release of coal ash with high levels of toxic elements (As = 75 mg/kg; Hg = 150 microg/kg) and radioactivity (226Ra + 228Ra = 8 pCi/g) to the environment has the potential to generate resuspended ambient fine particles (< 10 microm) containing these toxics into the atmosphere that may pose a health risk to local communities. Second, leaching of contaminants from the coal ash caused contamination of surface waters in areas of restricted water exchange, but only trace levels were found in the downstream Emory and Clinch Rivers due to river dilution. Third, the accumulation of Hg- and As-rich coal ash in river sediments has the potential to have an impact on the ecological system in the downstream rivers by fish poisoning and methylmercury formation in anaerobic river sediments.

PDLA a potential new potent topical analgesic: a case report.

Polymer D-lactic acid (PDLA) is a hydrogel that has been shown to sequester L-lactate (lactate). This reaction is rapid, spontaneous, and non-enzymatic. Lactate has been shown to have many functions within the nervous system including its use as a secondary fuel to sustain neural activity and as a neuromodulator. In the central nervous system, lactate is produced in glial cells and shuttled to neurons to be used mostly as a fuel. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH)1 is the predominant LDH isoform within neurons and unlike LDH5, it preferentially converts lactate to pyruvate which can be used to produce adenosine triphosphate (ATP). Considering that lactate is intimately involved in the sustenance of neural activity, PDLA was applied to an open wound and its effects were examined. The results showed that the application of PDLA induced topical analgesia. This may be the first report to demonstrate that sequestering lactate, a source of energy required to sustain the firing of action potentials in neurons, may produce analgesia.