1997 Delegates to the Second International Strategy Meeting on Human Genome Sequencing in Bermuda from Gert-Jan van Ommen

Photographs from the February 1997 Bermuda meeting. Courtesy of Gert-Jan van Ommen.

Prenegotiation public commitment in domestic and international bargaining

We use a formal bargaining model to examine why, in many domestic and international bargaining situations, one or both negotiators make public statements in front of their constituents committing themselves to obtaining certain benefits in the negotiations. We find that making public commitments provides bargaining leverage, when backing down from such commitments carries domestic political costs. However, when the two negotiators face fairly similar costs for violating a public commitment, a prisoner's dilemma is created in which both sides make high public demands which cannot be satisfied, and both negotiators would be better off if they could commit to not making public demands. However, making a public demand is a dominant strategy for each negotiator, and this leads to a suboptimal outcome. Escaping this prisoner's dilemma provides a rationale for secret negotiations. Testable hypotheses are derived from the nature of the commitments and agreements made in equilibrium.

Design and Emergence in the Making of American Grand Strategy

The main research question of this thesis is how do grand strategies form. Grand strategy is defined as a state's coherent and consistent pattern of behavior over a long period of time in search of an overarching goal. The political science literature usually explains the formation of grand strategies by using a planning (or design) model. In this dissertation, I use primary sources, interviews with former government officials, and historical scholarship to show that the formation of grand strategy is better understood using a model of emergent learning imported from the business world. My two case studies examine the formation of American grand strategy during the Cold War and the post-Cold War eras. The dissertation concludes that in both these strategic eras the dominating grand strategies were formed primarily by emergent learning rather than flowing from advanced designs.

Furnishing a Globalized World: Local Distinctiveness in the International Furniture Industry

Advances in technology, communication, and transportation over the past thirty years have led to tighter linkages and enhanced collaboration across traditional borders between nations, institutions, and cultures. This thesis uses the furniture industry as a lens to examine the impacts of globalization on individual countries and companies as they interact on an international scale. Using global value chain analysis and international trade data, I break down the furniture production process and explore how countries have specialized in particular stages of production to differentiate themselves from competitors and maximize the benefits of global involvement. Through interviews with company representatives and evaluation of branding strategies such as advertisements, webpages, and partnerships, I investigate across four country cases how furniture companies construct strong brands in an effort to stand out as unique to consumers with access to products made around the globe. Branding often serves to highlight distinctiveness and associate companies with national identities, thus revealing that in today’s globalized and interconnected society, local differences and diversity are more significant than ever.

An Automated Surveillance Strategy to Identify Infectious Complications After Cardiac Implantable Electronic Device Procedures.

Background.  The optimum approach for infectious complication surveillance for cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) procedures is unclear. We created an automated surveillance tool for infectious complications after CIED procedures. Methods.  Adults having CIED procedures between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2011 at Duke University Hospital were identified retrospectively using International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision (ICD-9) procedure codes. Potential infections were identified with combinations of ICD-9 diagnosis codes and microbiology data for 365 days postprocedure. All microbiology-identified and a subset of ICD-9 code-identified possible cases, as well as a subset of procedures without microbiology or ICD-9 codes, were reviewed. Test performance characteristics for specific queries were calculated. Results.  Overall, 6097 patients had 7137 procedures. Of these, 1686 procedures with potential infectious complications were identified: 174 by both ICD-9 code and microbiology, 14 only by microbiology, and 1498 only by ICD-9 criteria. We reviewed 558 potential cases, including all 188 microbiology-identified cases, 250 randomly selected ICD-9 cases, and 120 with neither. Overall, 65 unique infections were identified, including 5 of 250 reviewed cases identified only by ICD-9 codes. Queries that included microbiology data and ICD-9 code 996.61 had good overall test performance, with sensitivities of approximately 90% and specificities of approximately 80%. Queries with ICD-9 codes alone had poor specificity. Extrapolation of reviewed infectious rates to nonreviewed cases yields an estimated rate of infection of 1.3%. Conclusions.  Electronic queries with combinations of ICD-9 codes and microbiologic data can be created and have good test performance characteristics for identifying likely infectious complications of CIED procedures.