The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in a warming world.

Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it will be important to predict tipping points that might trigger or accelerate synergistic interactions between climate change and contaminant exposures.

Inter-annual variability of precipitation constrains the production response of boreal Pinus sylvestris to nitrogen fertilization

© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.Tree growth resources and the efficiency of resource-use for biomass production determine the productivity of forest ecosystems. In nutrient-limited forests, nitrogen (N)-fertilization increases foliage [N], which may increase photosynthetic rates, leaf area index (L), and thus light interception (IC). The product of such changes is a higher gross primary production and higher net primary production (NPP). However, fertilization may also alter carbohydrate partitioning from below- to aboveground, increasing aboveground NPP (ANPP). We analyzed effects of long-term N-fertilization on NPP, and that of long-term carbon storing organs (NPPS) in a Pinus sylvestris forest on sandy soil, a wide-ranging forest type in the boreal region. We based our analyses on a combination of destructive harvesting, consecutive mensuration, and optical measurements of canopy openness. After eight-year fertilization with a total of 70gNm^-2, ANPP was 27±7% higher in the fertilized (F) relative to the reference (R) stand, but although L increased relative to its pre-fertilization values, IC was not greater than in R. On the seventh year after the treatment initiation, the increase of ANPP was matched by the decrease of belowground NPP (78 vs. 92gCm^-2yr^-1; ~17% of NPP) and, given the similarity of IC, suggests that the main effect of N-fertilization was changed carbon partitioning rather than increased canopy photosynthesis. Annual NPPS increased linearly with growing season temperature (T) in both treatments, with an upward shift of 70.2gCm^-2yr^-1 by fertilization, which also caused greater amount of unexplained variation (r²=0.53 in R, 0.21 in F). Residuals of the NPPS-T relationship of F were related to growing season precipitation (P, r²=0.48), indicating that T constrains productivity at this site regardless of fertility, while P is important in determining productivity where N-limitation is alleviated. We estimated that, in a growing season average T (11.5±1.0°C; 33-year-mean), NPPS response to N-fertilization will be nullified with P 31mm less than the mean (325±85mm), and would double with P 109mm greater than the mean. These results suggest that inter-annual variation in climate, particularly in P, may help explaining the reported large variability in growth responses to fertilization of pine stands on sandy soils. Furthermore, forest management of long-rotation systems, such as those of boreal and northern temperate forests, must consider the efficiency of fertilization in terms of wood production in the context of changes in climate predicted for the region.

Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought

Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.

Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Elevated C-peptide and insulin predict increased risk of colorectal adenomas in normal mucosa.

BACKGROUND: Lower concentrations of the insulin-like growth factor binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1) and elevated concentrations of insulin or C-peptide have been associated with an increase in colorectal cancer risk (CRC). However few studies have evaluated IGFBP-1 and C-peptide in relation to adenomatous polyps, the only known precursor for CRC. METHODS: Between November 2001 and December 2002, we examined associations between circulating concentrations of insulin, C-peptide, IGFBP-1 and apoptosis among 190 individuals with one or more adenomatous polyps and 488 with no adenomatous polyps using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Individuals with the highest concentrations of C-peptide were more likely to have adenomas (OR = 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-4.0) than those with the lowest concentrations; associations that appeared to be stronger in men (OR = 4.4, 95% CI 1.7-10.9) than women. Individuals with high insulin concentrations also had a higher risk of adenomas (OR = 3.5, 95% CI 1.7-7.4), whereas higher levels of IGFBP-1 were associated with a reduced risk of adenomas in men only (OR = 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.7). Overweight and obese individuals with higher C-peptide levels (>1(st) Q) were at increased risk for lower apoptosis index (OR = 2.5, 95% CI 0.9-7.1), an association that remained strong in overweight and obese men (OR = 6.3, 95% CI 1.0-36.7). Higher levels of IGFBP-1 in overweight and obese individuals were associated with a reduced risk of low apoptosis (OR = 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: Associations between these peptides and the apoptosis index in overweight and obese individuals, suggest that the mechanism by which C-peptide could induce adenomas may include its anti-apoptotic properties. This study suggests that hyperinsulinemia and IGF hormones predict adenoma risk, and that outcomes associated with colorectal carcinogenesis maybe modified by gender.

Magnetic metamaterial superlens for increased range wireless power transfer.

The ability to wirelessly power electrical devices is becoming of greater urgency as a component of energy conservation and sustainability efforts. Due to health and safety concerns, most wireless power transfer (WPT) schemes utilize very low frequency, quasi-static, magnetic fields; power transfer occurs via magneto-inductive (MI) coupling between conducting loops serving as transmitter and receiver. At the "long range" regime - referring to distances larger than the diameter of the largest loop - WPT efficiency in free space falls off as (1/d)(6); power loss quickly approaches 100% and limits practical implementations of WPT to relatively tight distances between power source and device. A "superlens", however, can concentrate the magnetic near fields of a source. Here, we demonstrate the impact of a magnetic metamaterial (MM) superlens on long-range near-field WPT, quantitatively confirming in simulation and measurement at 13-16 MHz the conditions under which the superlens can enhance power transfer efficiency compared to the lens-less free-space system.

Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical–extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the modeled precipitation biases over the SE US. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that the NASH western ridge is an important factor responsible for the RCM skill in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Furthermore, the improvements in the PBL parameterizations for the Gulf of Mexico might help advance RCM skill in representing the NASH western ridge circulation and summer precipitation over the SE US.

Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in regional precipitation variance: focus on the Southeastern United States

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The frequency and severity of extreme events are tightly associated with the variance of precipitation. As climate warms, the acceleration in hydrological cycle is likely to enhance the variance of precipitation across the globe. However, due to the lack of an effective analysis method, the mechanisms responsible for the changes of precipitation variance are poorly understood, especially on regional scales. Our study fills this gap by formulating a variance partition algorithm, which explicitly quantifies the contributions of atmospheric thermodynamics (specific humidity) and dynamics (wind) to the changes in regional-scale precipitation variance. Taking Southeastern (SE) United States (US) summer precipitation as an example, the algorithm is applied to the simulations of current and future climate by phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. The analysis suggests that compared to observations, most CMIP5 models (~60 %) tend to underestimate the summer precipitation variance over the SE US during the 1950–1999, primarily due to the errors in the modeled dynamic processes (i.e. large-scale circulation). Among the 18 CMIP5 models analyzed in this study, six of them reasonably simulate SE US summer precipitation variance in the twentieth century and the underlying physical processes; these models are thus applied for mechanistic study of future changes in SE US summer precipitation variance. In the future, the six models collectively project an intensification of SE US summer precipitation variance, resulting from the combined effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics. Between them, the latter plays a more important role. Specifically, thermodynamics results in more frequent and intensified wet summers, but does not contribute to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of dry summers. In contrast, atmospheric dynamics explains the projected enhancement in both wet and dry summers, indicating its importance in understanding future climate change over the SE US. The results suggest that the intensified SE US summer precipitation variance is not a purely thermodynamic response to greenhouse gases forcing, and cannot be explained without the contribution of atmospheric dynamics. Our analysis provides important insights to understand the mechanisms of SE US summer precipitation variance change. The algorithm formulated in this study can be easily applied to other regions and seasons to systematically explore the mechanisms responsible for the changes in precipitation extremes in a warming climate.

Increased in vivo glucose recovery via nitric oxide release.

The in vivo glucose recovery of subcutaneously implanted nitric oxide (NO)-releasing microdialysis probes was evaluated in a rat model using saturated NO solutions to steadily release NO. Such methodology resulted in a constant NO flux of 162 pmol cm(-2) s(-1) from the probe membrane over 8 h of perfusion daily. The in vivo effects of enhanced localized NO were evaluated by monitoring glucose recovery over a 14 day period, with histological analysis thereafter. A difference in glucose recovery was observed starting at 7 days for probes releasing NO relative to controls. Histological analysis at 14 days revealed lessened inflammatory cell density at the probe surface and decreased capsule thickness. Collectively, the results suggest that intermittent sustained NO release from implant surfaces may improve glucose diffusion for subcutaneously implanted sensors by mitigating the foreign body reaction.

Salicylic acid biosynthesis is enhanced and contributes to increased biotrophic pathogen resistance in Arabidopsis hybrids.

Heterosis, the phenotypic superiority of a hybrid over its parents, has been demonstrated for many traits in Arabidopsis thaliana, but its effect on defence remains largely unexplored. Here, we show that hybrids between some A. thaliana accessions show increased resistance to the biotrophic bacterial pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. tomato (Pst) DC3000. Comparisons of transcriptomes between these hybrids and their parents after inoculation reveal that several key salicylic acid (SA) biosynthesis genes are significantly upregulated in hybrids. Moreover, SA levels are higher in hybrids than in either parent. Increased resistance to Pst DC3000 is significantly compromised in hybrids of pad4 mutants in which the SA biosynthesis pathway is blocked. Finally, increased histone H3 acetylation of key SA biosynthesis genes correlates with their upregulation in infected hybrids. Our data demonstrate that enhanced activation of SA biosynthesis in A. thaliana hybrids may contribute to their increased resistance to a biotrophic bacterial pathogen.

Hydraulic redistribution of soil water by roots affects whole-stand evapotranspiration and net ecosystem carbon exchange.

*Hydraulic redistribution (HR) of water via roots from moist to drier portions of the soil occurs in many ecosystems, potentially influencing both water use and carbon assimilation. *By measuring soil water content, sap flow and eddy covariance, we investigated the temporal variability of HR in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantation during months of normal and below-normal precipitation, and examined its effects on tree transpiration, ecosystem water use and carbon exchange. *The occurrence of HR was explained by courses of reverse flow through roots. As the drought progressed, HR maintained soil moisture above 0.15 cm(3) cm(-3) and increased transpiration by 30-50%. HR accounted for 15-25% of measured total site water depletion seasonally, peaking at 1.05 mm d(-1). The understory species depended on water redistributed by the deep-rooted overstory pine trees for their early summer water supply. Modeling carbon flux showed that in the absence of HR, gross ecosystem productivity and net ecosystem exchange could be reduced by 750 and 400 g C m(-2) yr(-1), respectively. *Hydraulic redistribution mitigated the effects of soil drying on understory and stand evapotranspiration and had important implications for net primary productivity by maintaining this whole ecosystem as a carbon sink.

Increased leptin levels correlate with thyroid autoantibodies in nonobese males.

OBJECTIVE: Leptin is an adipokine that regulates body weight and appetite. It is also an inflammatory cytokine that influences immune reactivity and autoimmunity. Leptin levels are increased in obesity and are higher in women than in men. We aimed to determine whether leptin levels, independent of sex and body mass index (BMI), are associated with thyroid autoimmunity. DESIGN: This study uses data from The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) to test the association of leptin and thyroid autoimmunity, independent of BMI. MEASUREMENTS: Thyroid-stimulating hormone, thyroxine, antithyroid peroxidase (TPO) antibodies and leptin levels were measured in 2902 men and 3280 women within the NHANES III population. BMI was calculated from height and weight. RESULTS: Women had significantly higher leptin levels and anti-TPO antibody titres than men. Correlation analyses demonstrated that leptin levels were associated with anti-TPO antibody levels in the total population, but when men and women were analysed separately, this association was lost. We then stratified men and women into obese (BMI > 30) or nonobese (BMI ≤ 30) subgroups and determined the association between leptin levels and anti-TPO antibody titres for each subgroup. Using regression analysis, we found that increased leptin levels correlated with thyroid autoantibodies in nonobese males, but not in obese males or in females. CONCLUSIONS: Leptin levels correlated with thyroid autoantibody titres in nonobese males. This association was not found in females. Sex and body habitus should therefore be considered in studying the role of leptin in other autoimmune conditions.

Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir,Beijing, China

The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.