Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

The Land of the Savior: Óscar Romero and the Reform of Agriculture

This study approaches Óscar Romero by attending to his intimate involvement in and concern for the problematic surrounding the reform of Salvadoran agriculture and the conflict over property and possession underlying it. In this study, I situate Romero in relation to the concentration of landholding and the production of landlessness in El Salvador over the course of the twentieth century, and I examine his participation in the longstanding societal and ecclesial debate about agrarian reform provoked by these realities. I try to show how close attention to agrarian reform and what was at stake in it can illumine not only the conflict that occasioned Romero’s martyrdom but the meaning of the martyrdom itself.

Understanding Romero’s involvement in the debate about agrarian reform requires sustained attention to how it takes its bearings from the line of thinking about property and possession for which Pope Leo XIII’s 1891 encyclical Rerum novarum stands as a new beginning. The enclyclical tradition developing out of Leo’s pontificate is commonly referred to as Catholic social doctrine or Catholic social teaching. Romero’s and the Church’s participation in the debate about agrarian reform in El Salvador is unintelligible apart from it.

What Romero and the encyclical tradition share, I argue, is an understanding of creation as a common gift, from which follows a distinctive construal of property and the demands of justice with respect to possessing it. On this view, property does not name, as it is often taken to mean, the enclosure of what is common for the exclusive use of its possessors—something to be held by them over and against others. Rather, property and everything related to its holding derive from the claim that creation is a gift given to human creatures in common. The acknowledgement of creation as a common gift gives rise to what I describe in this study as a politics of common use, of which agrarian reform is one expression.

In Romero’s El Salvador, those who took the truth of creation as common gift seriously—those who spoke out against or opposed the ubiquity of the concentration of land and who clamored for agrarian reform so that the landless and land-poor could have access to land to cultivate for subsistence—suffered greatly as a consequence. I argue that, among other things, their suffering shows how, under the conditions of sin and violence, those who work to ensure that others have access to what is theirs in justice often risk laying down their lives in charity. In other words, they witness to the way that God’s work to restore creation has a cruciform shape. Therefore, while the advocacy for agrarian reform begins with the understanding of creation as common gift, the testimony to this truth in word and in deed points to the telos of the gift and the common life in the crucified and risen Lord in which it participates

Prayer and Depression: Women in Rural Pakistan

Background: Mental health, specifically depression, is a burden of disease in Pakistan. Religion and depression have not been studied in Pakistan currently, specially within a subset of a rural population. Methods: A secondary-data analysis was conducted using logistic regression for a non-parametrically distributed data set. The setting was in rural Pakistan, near Rawalpindi, and the sample size data was collected from the SHARE (South Asian Hub for Advocacy, Research, and Education). The measures used were the phq9 scaled for depression, prayer number, mother’s education, mother’s age, and if the mothers work. Results: This study demonstrated that there was no association between prayer and depression in this cohort. The mean prayer number between depressed and non-depressed women was 1.22 and 1.42, respectively, and a Wilcoxan rank sum test indicated that this was not significant. Conclusions: The primary finding indicates that increased frequency of prayer is not associated with a decreased rate of depression. This may be due to prayer number not being a significant enough measure. The implications of these findings stress the need for more depression intervention in rural Pakistan.

China in Global Value Chains: Implications for Industrial Policy and Development

Rapid technological advances and liberal trade regimes permit functional reintegration of dispersed activities into new border-spanning business networks variously referred to as global value chains (GVCs). Given that the gains of a country from GVCs depend on the activities taking place in its jurisdiction and their linkages to global markets, this study starts by providing a descriptive overview of China’s economic structure and trade profile. The first two chapters of this paper demonstrate what significant role GVCs have played in China’s economic growth, evident in enhanced productivity, diversification, and sophistication of China’s exports, and how these economic benefits have propelled China’s emergence as the world’s manufacturing hub in the past two decades. However, benefits from GVC participation – in particular technological learning, knowledge building, and industrial upgrading – are not automatic. What strategies would help Chinese industries engage with GVCs in ways that are deemed sustainable in the long run? What challenges and related opportunities China would face throughout the implementation process? The last two chapters of this paper focus on implications of GVCs for China’s industrial policy and development. Chapter Three examines how China is reorienting its manufacturing sector toward the production of higher value-added goods and expanding its service sector, both domestically and internationally; while Chapter Four provides illustrative policy recommendations on dealing with the positive and negative outcomes triggered by GVCs, within China and beyond the country’s borders. To the end, this study also hopes to shed some light on the lessons and complexities that arise from GVC participation for other developing countries.

Molecular Insights of CD4+ T Cell Differentiation, Effector Formation and Helper Function

CD4+ T cells play a crucial in the adaptive immune system. They function as the central hub to orchestrate the rest of immunity: CD4+ T cells are essential governing machinery in antibacterial and antiviral responses by facilitating B cell affinity maturation and coordinating the innate and adaptive immune systems to boost the overall immune outcome; on the contrary, hyperactivation of the inflammatory lineages of CD4+ T cells, as well as the impairments of suppressive CD4+ regulatory T cells, are the etiology of various autoimmunity and inflammatory diseases. The broad role of CD4+ T cells in both physiological and pathological contexts prompted me to explore the modulation of CD4+ T cells on the molecular level.

microRNAs (miRNAs) are small RNA molecules capable of regulating gene expression post-transcriptionally. miRNAs have been shown to exert substantial regulatory effects on CD4+ T cell activation, differentiation and helper function. Specifically, my lab has previously established the function of the miR-17-92 cluster in Th1 differentiation and anti-tumor responses. Here, I further analyzed the role of this miRNA cluster in Th17 differentiation, specifically, in the context of autoimmune diseases. Using both gain- and loss-of-function approaches, I demonstrated that miRNAs in miR-17-92, specifically, miR-17 and miR-19b in this cluster, is a crucial promoter of Th17 differentiation. Consequently, loss of miR-17-92 expression in T cells mitigated the progression of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis and T cell-induced colitis. In combination with my previous data, the molecular dissection of this cluster establishes that miR-19b and miR-17 play a comprehensive role in promoting multiple aspects of inflammatory T cell responses, which underscore them as potential targets for oligonucleotide-based therapy in treating autoimmune diseases.

To systematically study miRNA regulation in effector CD4+ T cells, I devised a large-scale miRNAome profiling to track in vivo miRNA changes in antigen-specific CD4+ T cells activated by Listeria challenge. From this screening, I identified that miR-23a expression tightly correlates with CD4+ effector expansion. Ectopic expression and genetic deletion strategies validated that miR-23a was required for antigen-stimulated effector CD4+ T cell survival in vitro and in vivo. I further determined that miR-23a targets Ppif, a gatekeeper of mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (ROS) release that protects CD4+ T cells from necrosis. Necrosis is a type of cell death that provokes inflammation, and it is prominently triggered by ROS release and its consequent oxidative stress. My finding that miR-23a curbs ROS-mediated necrosis highlights the essential role of this miRNA in maintaining immune homeostasis.

A key feature of miRNAs is their ability to modulate different biological aspects in different cell populations. Previously, my lab found that miR-23a potently suppresses CD8+ T cell cytotoxicity by restricting BLIMP1 expression. Since BLIMP1 has been found to inhibit T follicular helper (Tfh) differentiation by antagonizing the master transcription factor BCL6, I investigated whether miR-23a is also involved in Tfh differentiation. However, I found that miR-23a does not target BLIMP1 in CD4+ T cells and loss of miR-23a even fostered Tfh differentiation. This data indicate that miR-23a may target other pathways in CD4+ T cells regarding the Tfh differentiation pathway.

Although the lineage identity and regulatory networks for Tfh cells have been defined, the differentiation path of Tfh cells remains elusive. Two models have been proposed to explain the differentiation process of Tfh cells: in the parallel differentiation model, the Tfh lineage is segregated from other effector lineages at the early stage of antigen activation; alternatively, the sequential differentiation model suggests that naïve CD4+ T cells first differentiate into various effector lineages, then further program into Tfh cells. To address this question, I developed a novel in vitro co-culture system that employed antigen-specific CD4+ T cells, naïve B cells presenting cognate T cell antigen and BAFF-producing feeder cells to mimic germinal center. Using this system, I were able to robustly generate GC-like B cells. Notably, well-differentiated Th1 or Th2 effector cells also quickly acquired Tfh phenotype and function during in vitro co-culture, which suggested a sequential differentiation path for Tfh cells. To examine this path in vivo, under conditions of classical Th1- or Th2-type immunizations, I employed a TCRβ repertoire sequencing technique to track the clonotype origin of Tfh cells. Under both Th1- and Th2- immunization conditions, I observed profound repertoire overlaps between the Teff and Tfh populations, which strongly supports the proposed sequential differentiation model. Therefore, my studies establish a new platform to conveniently study Tfh-GC B cell interactions and provide insights into Tfh differentiation processes.