A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets

Assuming that daily spot exchange rates follow a martingale process, we derive the implied time series process for the vector of 30-day forward rate forecast errors from using weekly data. The conditional second moment matrix of this vector is modelled as a multivariate generalized ARCH process. The estimated model is used to test the hypothesis that the risk premium is a linear function of the conditional variances and covariances as suggested by the standard asset pricing theory literature. Little supportt is found for this theory; instead lagged changes in the forward rate appear to be correlated with the 'risk premium.'. © 1990.

Stream segregation on a single electrode as a function of pulse rate in cochlear implant listeners.

While cochlear implants (CIs) usually provide high levels of speech recognition in quiet, speech recognition in noise remains challenging. To overcome these difficulties, it is important to understand how implanted listeners separate a target signal from interferers. Stream segregation has been studied extensively in both normal and electric hearing, as a function of place of stimulation. However, the effects of pulse rate, independent of place, on the perceptual grouping of sequential sounds in electric hearing have not yet been investigated. A rhythm detection task was used to measure stream segregation. The results of this study suggest that while CI listeners can segregate streams based on differences in pulse rate alone, the amount of stream segregation observed decreases as the base pulse rate increases. Further investigation of the perceptual dimensions encoded by the pulse rate and the effect of sequential presentation of different stimulation rates on perception could be beneficial for the future development of speech processing strategies for CIs.

Different stimuli, different spatial codes: a visual map and an auditory rate code for oculomotor space in the primate superior colliculus.

Maps are a mainstay of visual, somatosensory, and motor coding in many species. However, auditory maps of space have not been reported in the primate brain. Instead, recent studies have suggested that sound location may be encoded via broadly responsive neurons whose firing rates vary roughly proportionately with sound azimuth. Within frontal space, maps and such rate codes involve different response patterns at the level of individual neurons. Maps consist of neurons exhibiting circumscribed receptive fields, whereas rate codes involve open-ended response patterns that peak in the periphery. This coding format discrepancy therefore poses a potential problem for brain regions responsible for representing both visual and auditory information. Here, we investigated the coding of auditory space in the primate superior colliculus(SC), a structure known to contain visual and oculomotor maps for guiding saccades. We report that, for visual stimuli, neurons showed circumscribed receptive fields consistent with a map, but for auditory stimuli, they had open-ended response patterns consistent with a rate or level-of-activity code for location. The discrepant response patterns were not segregated into different neural populations but occurred in the same neurons. We show that a read-out algorithm in which the site and level of SC activity both contribute to the computation of stimulus location is successful at evaluating the discrepant visual and auditory codes, and can account for subtle but systematic differences in the accuracy of auditory compared to visual saccades. This suggests that a given population of neurons can use different codes to support appropriate multimodal behavior.

Effect of primary care physicians' use of estimated glomerular filtration rate on the timing of their subspecialty referral decisions.

BACKGROUND: Primary care providers' suboptimal recognition of the severity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) may contribute to untimely referrals of patients with CKD to subspecialty care. It is unknown whether U.S. primary care physicians' use of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) rather than serum creatinine to estimate CKD severity could improve the timeliness of their subspecialty referral decisions. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 154 United States primary care physicians to assess the effect of use of eGFR (versus creatinine) on the timing of their subspecialty referrals. Primary care physicians completed a questionnaire featuring questions regarding a hypothetical White or African American patient with progressing CKD. We asked primary care physicians to identify the serum creatinine and eGFR levels at which they would recommend patients like the hypothetical patient be referred for subspecialty evaluation. We assessed significant improvement in the timing [from eGFR < 30 to ≥ 30 mL/min/1.73m(2)) of their recommended referrals based on their use of creatinine versus eGFR. RESULTS: Primary care physicians recommended subspecialty referrals later (CKD more advanced) when using creatinine versus eGFR to assess kidney function [median eGFR 32 versus 55 mL/min/1.73m(2), p < 0.001]. Forty percent of primary care physicians significantly improved the timing of their referrals when basing their recommendations on eGFR. Improved timing occurred more frequently among primary care physicians practicing in academic (versus non-academic) practices or presented with White (versus African American) hypothetical patients [adjusted percentage(95% CI): 70% (45-87) versus 37% (reference) and 57% (39-73) versus 25% (reference), respectively, both p ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Primary care physicians recommended subspecialty referrals earlier when using eGFR (versus creatinine) to assess kidney function. Enhanced use of eGFR by primary care physicians' could lead to more timely subspecialty care and improved clinical outcomes for patients with CKD.

Should governments use a declining discount rate in project analysis?

At a workshop held at Resources for the Future in September 2011, twelve of the authors were asked by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide advice on the principles to be used in discounting the benefits and costs of projects that affect future generations. Maureen L. Cropper chaired the workshop. Much of the discussion in this article is based on the authors' recommendations and advice presented at the workshop. © The Author 2014.

Exploring the effects of image persistence in low frame rate virtual environments

© 2015 IEEE.In virtual reality applications, there is an aim to provide real time graphics which run at high refresh rates. However, there are many situations in which this is not possible due to simulation or rendering issues. When running at low frame rates, several aspects of the user experience are affected. For example, each frame is displayed for an extended period of time, causing a high persistence image artifact. The effect of this artifact is that movement may lose continuity, and the image jumps from one frame to another. In this paper, we discuss our initial exploration of the effects of high persistence frames caused by low refresh rates and compare it to high frame rates and to a technique we developed to mitigate the effects of low frame rates. In this technique, the low frame rate simulation images are displayed with low persistence by blanking out the display during the extra time such image would be displayed. In order to isolate the visual effects, we constructed a simulator for low and high persistence displays that does not affect input latency. A controlled user study comparing the three conditions for the tasks of 3D selection and navigation was conducted. Results indicate that the low persistence display technique may not negatively impact user experience or performance as compared to the high persistence case. Directions for future work on the use of low persistence displays for low frame rate situations are discussed.

Implementation of automated reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate among Veterans Affairs laboratories: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Automated reporting of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is a recent advance in laboratory information technology (IT) that generates a measure of kidney function with chemistry laboratory results to aid early detection of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Because accurate diagnosis of CKD is critical to optimal medical decision-making, several clinical practice guidelines have recommended the use of automated eGFR reporting. Since its introduction, automated eGFR reporting has not been uniformly implemented by U. S. laboratories despite the growing prevalence of CKD. CKD is highly prevalent within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), and implementation of automated eGFR reporting within this integrated healthcare system has the potential to improve care. In July 2004, the VHA adopted automated eGFR reporting through a system-wide mandate for software implementation by individual VHA laboratories. This study examines the timing of software implementation by individual VHA laboratories and factors associated with implementation. METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study of laboratories in VHA facilities from July 2004 to September 2009. Using laboratory data, we identified the status of implementation of automated eGFR reporting for each facility and the time to actual implementation from the date the VHA adopted its policy for automated eGFR reporting. Using survey and administrative data, we assessed facility organizational characteristics associated with implementation of automated eGFR reporting via bivariate analyses. RESULTS: Of 104 VHA laboratories, 88% implemented automated eGFR reporting in existing laboratory IT systems by the end of the study period. Time to initial implementation ranged from 0.2 to 4.0 years with a median of 1.8 years. All VHA facilities with on-site dialysis units implemented the eGFR software (52%, p<0.001). Other organizational characteristics were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The VHA did not have uniform implementation of automated eGFR reporting across its facilities. Facility-level organizational characteristics were not associated with implementation, and this suggests that decisions for implementation of this software are not related to facility-level quality improvement measures. Additional studies on implementation of laboratory IT, such as automated eGFR reporting, could identify factors that are related to more timely implementation and lead to better healthcare delivery.

Evaporation-induced evolution of the capillary force between two grains

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.The evolution of capillary forces during evaporation and the corresponding changes in the geometrical characteristics of liquid (water) bridges between two glass spheres with constant separation are examined experimentally. For comparison, the liquid bridges were also tested for mechanical extension (at constant volume). The obtained results reveal substantial differences between the evolution of capillary force due to evaporation and the evolution due to extension of the liquid bridges. During both evaporation and extension, the change of interparticle capillary forces consists in a force decrease to zero either gradually or via rupture of the bridge. At small separations between the grains (short & wide bridges) during evaporation and at large volumes during extension, there is a slight initial increase of force. During evaporation, the capillary force decreases slowly at the beginning of the process and quickly at the end of the process; during extension, the capillary force decreases quickly at the beginning and slowly at the end of the process. Rupture during evaporation of the bridges occurs most abruptly for bridges with wider separations (tall and thin), sometimes occurring after only 25% of the water volume was evaporated. The evolution (pinning/depinning) of two geometrical characteristics of the bridge, the diameter of the three-phase contact line and the “apparent” contact angle at the solid/liquid/gas interface, seem to control the capillary force evolution. The findings are of relevance to the mechanics of unsaturated granular media in the final phase of drying.