Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

Prospective Estimation of Radiation Dose and Image Quality for Optimized CT Performance

X-ray computed tomography (CT) is a non-invasive medical imaging technique that generates cross-sectional images by acquiring attenuation-based projection measurements at multiple angles. Since its first introduction in the 1970s, substantial technical improvements have led to the expanding use of CT in clinical examinations. CT has become an indispensable imaging modality for the diagnosis of a wide array of diseases in both pediatric and adult populations [1, 2]. Currently, approximately 272 million CT examinations are performed annually worldwide, with nearly 85 million of these in the United States alone [3]. Although this trend has decelerated in recent years, CT usage is still expected to increase mainly due to advanced technologies such as multi-energy [4], photon counting [5], and cone-beam CT [6].

Despite the significant clinical benefits, concerns have been raised regarding the population-based radiation dose associated with CT examinations [7]. From 1980 to 2006, the effective dose from medical diagnostic procedures rose six-fold, with CT contributing to almost half of the total dose from medical exposure [8]. For each patient, the risk associated with a single CT examination is likely to be minimal. However, the relatively large population-based radiation level has led to enormous efforts among the community to manage and optimize the CT dose.

As promoted by the international campaigns Image Gently and Image Wisely, exposure to CT radiation should be appropriate and safe [9, 10]. It is thus a responsibility to optimize the amount of radiation dose for CT examinations. The key for dose optimization is to determine the minimum amount of radiation dose that achieves the targeted image quality [11]. Based on such principle, dose optimization would significantly benefit from effective metrics to characterize radiation dose and image quality for a CT exam. Moreover, if accurate predictions of the radiation dose and image quality were possible before the initiation of the exam, it would be feasible to personalize it by adjusting the scanning parameters to achieve a desired level of image quality. The purpose of this thesis is to design and validate models to quantify patient-specific radiation dose prospectively and task-based image quality. The dual aim of the study is to implement the theoretical models into clinical practice by developing an organ-based dose monitoring system and an image-based noise addition software for protocol optimization.

More specifically, Chapter 3 aims to develop an organ dose-prediction method for CT examinations of the body under constant tube current condition. The study effectively modeled the anatomical diversity and complexity using a large number of patient models with representative age, size, and gender distribution. The dependence of organ dose coefficients on patient size and scanner models was further evaluated. Distinct from prior work, these studies use the largest number of patient models to date with representative age, weight percentile, and body mass index (BMI) range.

With effective quantification of organ dose under constant tube current condition, Chapter 4 aims to extend the organ dose prediction system to tube current modulated (TCM) CT examinations. The prediction, applied to chest and abdominopelvic exams, was achieved by combining a convolution-based estimation technique that quantifies the radiation field, a TCM scheme that emulates modulation profiles from major CT vendors, and a library of computational phantoms with representative sizes, ages, and genders. The prospective quantification model is validated by comparing the predicted organ dose with the dose estimated based on Monte Carlo simulations with TCM function explicitly modeled.

Chapter 5 aims to implement the organ dose-estimation framework in clinical practice to develop an organ dose-monitoring program based on a commercial software (Dose Watch, GE Healthcare, Waukesha, WI). In the first phase of the study we focused on body CT examinations, and so the patient’s major body landmark information was extracted from the patient scout image in order to match clinical patients against a computational phantom in the library. The organ dose coefficients were estimated based on CT protocol and patient size as reported in Chapter 3. The exam CTDIvol, DLP, and TCM profiles were extracted and used to quantify the radiation field using the convolution technique proposed in Chapter 4.

With effective methods to predict and monitor organ dose, Chapters 6 aims to develop and validate improved measurement techniques for image quality assessment. Chapter 6 outlines the method that was developed to assess and predict quantum noise in clinical body CT images. Compared with previous phantom-based studies, this study accurately assessed the quantum noise in clinical images and further validated the correspondence between phantom-based measurements and the expected clinical image quality as a function of patient size and scanner attributes.

Chapter 7 aims to develop a practical strategy to generate hybrid CT images and assess the impact of dose reduction on diagnostic confidence for the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis. The general strategy is (1) to simulate synthetic CT images at multiple reduced-dose levels from clinical datasets using an image-based noise addition technique; (2) to develop quantitative and observer-based methods to validate the realism of simulated low-dose images; (3) to perform multi-reader observer studies on the low-dose image series to assess the impact of dose reduction on the diagnostic confidence for multiple diagnostic tasks; and (4) to determine the dose operating point for clinical CT examinations based on the minimum diagnostic performance to achieve protocol optimization.

Chapter 8 concludes the thesis with a summary of accomplished work and a discussion about future research.

Essays in Empirical Operations Management: Bayesian Learning of Service Quality and Structural Estimation of Complementary Product Pricing and Inventory Management

This dissertation contributes to the rapidly growing empirical research area in the field of operations management. It contains two essays, tackling two different sets of operations management questions which are motivated by and built on field data sets from two very different industries --- air cargo logistics and retailing.

The first essay, based on the data set obtained from a world leading third-party logistics company, develops a novel and general Bayesian hierarchical learning framework for estimating customers' spillover learning, that is, customers' learning about the quality of a service (or product) from their previous experiences with similar yet not identical services. We then apply our model to the data set to study how customers' experiences from shipping on a particular route affect their future decisions about shipping not only on that route, but also on other routes serviced by the same logistics company. We find that customers indeed borrow experiences from similar but different services to update their quality beliefs that determine future purchase decisions. Also, service quality beliefs have a significant impact on their future purchasing decisions. Moreover, customers are risk averse; they are averse to not only experience variability but also belief uncertainty (i.e., customer's uncertainty about their beliefs). Finally, belief uncertainty affects customers' utilities more compared to experience variability.

The second essay is based on a data set obtained from a large Chinese supermarket chain, which contains sales as well as both wholesale and retail prices of un-packaged perishable vegetables. Recognizing the special characteristics of this particularly product category, we develop a structural estimation model in a discrete-continuous choice model framework. Building on this framework, we then study an optimization model for joint pricing and inventory management strategies of multiple products, which aims at improving the company's profit from direct sales and at the same time reducing food waste and thus improving social welfare.

Collectively, the studies in this dissertation provide useful modeling ideas, decision tools, insights, and guidance for firms to utilize vast sales and operations data to devise more effective business strategies.