Modeling endogenous technological change for climate policy analysis

The approach used to model technological change in a climate policy model is a critical determinant of its results in terms of the time path of CO2 prices and costs required to achieve various emission reduction goals. We provide an overview of the different approaches used in the literature, with an emphasis on recent developments regarding endogenous technological change, research and development, and learning. Detailed examination sheds light on the salient features of each approach, including strengths, limitations, and policy implications. Key issues include proper accounting for the opportunity costs of climate-related knowledge generation, treatment of knowledge spillovers and appropriability, and the empirical basis for parameterizing technological relationships. No single approach appears to dominate on all these dimensions, and different approaches may be preferred depending on the purpose of the analysis, be it positive or normative. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Nrg1 is an injury-induced cardiomyocyte mitogen for the endogenous heart regeneration program in zebrafish.

Heart regeneration is limited in adult mammals but occurs naturally in adult zebrafish through the activation of cardiomyocyte division. Several components of the cardiac injury microenvironment have been identified, yet no factor on its own is known to stimulate overt myocardial hyperplasia in a mature, uninjured animal. In this study, we find evidence that Neuregulin1 (Nrg1), previously shown to have mitogenic effects on mammalian cardiomyocytes, is sharply induced in perivascular cells after injury to the adult zebrafish heart. Inhibition of Erbb2, an Nrg1 co-receptor, disrupts cardiomyocyte proliferation in response to injury, whereas myocardial Nrg1 overexpression enhances this proliferation. In uninjured zebrafish, the reactivation of Nrg1 expression induces cardiomyocyte dedifferentiation, overt muscle hyperplasia, epicardial activation, increased vascularization, and causes cardiomegaly through persistent addition of wall myocardium. Our findings identify Nrg1 as a potent, induced mitogen for the endogenous adult heart regeneration program.

Inactivation of the von Hippel-Lindau tumor suppressor leads to selective expression of a human endogenous retrovirus in kidney cancer.

A human endogenous retrovirus type E (HERV-E) was recently found to be selectively expressed in most renal cell carcinomas (RCCs). Importantly, antigens derived from this provirus are immunogenic, stimulating cytotoxic T cells that kill RCC cells in vitro and in vivo. Here, we show HERV-E expression is restricted to the clear cell subtype of RCC (ccRCC) characterized by an inactivation of the von Hippel-Lindau (VHL) tumor-suppressor gene with subsequent stabilization of hypoxia-inducible transcription factors (HIFs)-1α and -2α. HERV-E expression in ccRCC linearly correlated with HIF-2α levels and could be silenced in tumor cells by either transfection of normal VHL or small interfering RNA inhibition of HIF-2α. Using chromatin immunoprecipitation, we demonstrated that HIF-2α can serve as transcriptional factor for HERV-E by binding with HIF response element (HRE) localized in the proviral 5' long terminal repeat (LTR). Remarkably, the LTR was found to be hypomethylated only in HERV-E-expressing ccRCC while other tumors and normal tissues possessed a hypermethylated LTR preventing proviral expression. Taken altogether, these findings provide the first evidence that inactivation of a tumor suppressor gene can result in aberrant proviral expression in a human tumor and give insights needed for translational research aimed at boosting human immunity against antigenic components of this HERV-E.

Neuropathic pain activates the endogenous kappa opioid system in mouse spinal cord and induces opioid receptor tolerance.

Release of endogenous dynorphin opioids within the spinal cord after partial sciatic nerve ligation (pSNL) is known to contribute to the neuropathic pain processes. Using a phosphoselective antibody [kappa opioid receptor (KOR-P)] able to detect the serine 369 phosphorylated form of the KOR, we determined possible sites of dynorphin action within the spinal cord after pSNL. KOR-P immunoreactivity (IR) was markedly increased in the L4-L5 spinal dorsal horn of wild-type C57BL/6 mice (7-21 d) after lesion, but not in mice pretreated with the KOR antagonist nor-binaltorphimine (norBNI). In addition, knock-out mice lacking prodynorphin, KOR, or G-protein receptor kinase 3 (GRK3) did not show significant increases in KOR-P IR after pSNL. KOR-P IR was colocalized in both GABAergic neurons and GFAP-positive astrocytes in both ipsilateral and contralateral spinal dorsal horn. Consistent with sustained opioid release, KOR knock-out mice developed significantly increased tactile allodynia and thermal hyperalgesia in both the early (first week) and late (third week) interval after lesion. Similarly, mice pretreated with norBNI showed enhanced hyperalgesia and allodynia during the 3 weeks after pSNL. Because sustained activation of opioid receptors might induce tolerance, we measured the antinociceptive effect of the kappa agonist U50,488 using radiant heat applied to the ipsilateral hindpaw, and we found that agonist potency was significantly decreased 7 d after pSNL. In contrast, neither prodynorphin nor GRK3 knock-out mice showed U50,488 tolerance after pSNL. These findings suggest that pSNL induced a sustained release of endogenous prodynorphin-derived opioid peptides that activated an anti-nociceptive KOR system in mouse spinal cord. Thus, endogenous dynorphin had both pronociceptive and antinociceptive actions after nerve injury and induced GRK3-mediated opioid tolerance.

The cost of biopharmaceutical R&D: Is biotech different?

The costs of developing the types of new drugs that have been pursued by traditional pharmaceutical firms have been estimated in a number of studies. However, similar analyses have not been published on the costs of developing the types of molecules on which biotech firms have focused. This study represents a first attempt to get a sense for the magnitude of the R&D costs associated with the discovery and development of new therapeutic biopharmaceuticals (specifically, recombinant proteins and monoclonal antibodies [mAbs]). We utilize drug-specific data on cash outlays, development times, and success in obtaining regulatory marketing approval to estimate the average pre-tax R&D resource cost for biopharmaceuticals up to the point of initial US marketing approval (in year 2005 dollars). We found average out-of-pocket (cash outlay) cost estimates per approved biopharmaceutical of $198 million, $361 million, and $559 million for the preclinical period, the clinical period, and in total, respectively. Including the time costs associated with biopharmaceutical R&D, we found average capitalized cost estimates per approved biopharmaceutical of $615 million, $626 million, and $1241 million for the preclinical period, the clinical period, and in total, respectively. Adjusting previously published estimates of R&D costs for traditional pharmaceutical firms by using past growth rates for pharmaceutical company costs to correspond to the more recent period to which our biopharmaceutical data apply, we found that total out-of-pocket cost per approved biopharmaceutical was somewhat lower than for the pharmaceutical company data ($559 million vs $672 million). However, estimated total capitalized cost per approved new molecule was nearly the same for biopharmaceuticals as for the adjusted pharmaceutical company data ($1241 million versus $1318 million). The results should be viewed with some caution for now given a limited number of biopharmaceutical molecules with data on cash outlays, different therapeutic class distributions for biopharmaceuticals and for pharmaceutical company drugs, and uncertainty about whether recent growth rates in pharmaceutical company costs are different from immediate past growth rates. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Returns to R&D on new drug introductions in the 1980s.

This study finds that the mean IRR for 1980-84 U.S. new drug introductions is 11.1%, and the mean NPV is 22 million (1990 dollars). The distribution of returns is highly skewed. The results are robust to plausible changes in the baseline assumptions. Our work is also compared with a 1993 study by the OTA. Despite some important differences in assumptions, both studies imply that returns for the average NCE are within one percentage point of the industry's cost of capital. This is much less than what is typically observed in analyses based on accounting data.

Where does energy R&D come from? Examining crowding out from energy R&D

Recent efforts to endogenize technological change in climate policy models demonstrate the importance of accounting for the opportunity cost of climate R&D investments. Because the social returns to R&D investments are typically higher than the social returns to other types of investment, any new climate mitigation R&D that comes at the expense of other R&D investment may dampen the overall gains from induced technological change. Unfortunately, there has been little empirical work to guide modelers as to the potential magnitude of such crowding out effects. This paper considers both the private and social opportunity costs of climate R&D. Addressing private costs, we ask whether an increase in climate R&D represents new R&D spending, or whether some (or all) of the additional climate R&D comes at the expense of other R&D. Addressing social costs, we use patent citations to compare the social value of alternative energy research to other types of R&D that may be crowded out. Beginning at the industry level, we find no evidence of crowding out across sectors-that is, increases in energy R&D do not draw R&D resources away from sectors that do not perform R&D. Given this, we proceed with a detailed look at alternative energy R&D. Linking patent data and financial data by firm, we ask whether an increase in alternative energy patents leads to a decrease in other types of patenting activity. While we find that increases in alternative energy patents do result in fewer patents of other types, the evidence suggests that this is due to profit-maximizing changes in research effort, rather than financial constraints that limit the total amount of R&D possible. Finally, we use patent citation data to compare the social value of alternative energy patents to other patents by these firms. Alternative energy patents are cited more frequently, and by a wider range of other technologies, than other patents by these firms, suggesting that their social value is higher. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

R&D Costs and Returns to New Drug Development: A Review of the Evidence

© 2012 by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.This article reviews the extensive literature on R&D costs and returns. The first section focuses on R&D costs and the various factors that have affected the trends in real R&D costs over time. The second section considers economic studies on the distribution of returns in pharmaceuticals for different cohorts of new drug introductions. It also reviews the use of these studies to analyze the impact of policy actions on R&D costs and returns. The final section concludes and discusses open questions for further research.

R Markdown: Integrating A Reproducible Analysis Tool into Introductory Statistics

Nolan and Temple Lang argue that “the ability to express statistical computations is an es- sential skill.” A key related capacity is the ability to conduct and present data analysis in a way that another person can understand and replicate. The copy-and-paste workflow that is an artifact of antiquated user-interface design makes reproducibility of statistical analysis more difficult, especially as data become increasingly complex and statistical methods become increasingly sophisticated. R Markdown is a new technology that makes creating fully-reproducible statistical analysis simple and painless. It provides a solution suitable not only for cutting edge research, but also for use in an introductory statistics course. We present experiential and statistical evidence that R Markdown can be used effectively in introductory statistics courses, and discuss its role in the rapidly-changing world of statistical computation.

Calcium dependent CAMTA1 in adult stem cell commitment to a myocardial lineage.

The phenotype of somatic cells has recently been found to be reversible. Direct reprogramming of one cell type into another has been achieved with transduction and over expression of exogenous defined transcription factors emphasizing their role in specifying cell fate. To discover early and novel endogenous transcription factors that may have a role in adult-derived stem cell acquisition of a cardiomyocyte phenotype, mesenchymal stem cells from human and mouse bone marrow and rat liver were co-cultured with neonatal cardiomyocytes as an in vitro cardiogenic microenvironment. Cell-cell communications develop between the two cell types as early as 24 hrs in co-culture and are required for elaboration of a myocardial phenotype in the stem cells 8-16 days later. These intercellular communications are associated with novel Ca(2+) oscillations in the stem cells that are synchronous with the Ca(2+) transients in adjacent cardiomyocytes and are detected in the stem cells as early as 24-48 hrs in co-culture. Early and significant up-regulation of Ca(2+)-dependent effectors, CAMTA1 and RCAN1 ensues before a myocardial program is activated. CAMTA1 loss-of-function minimizes the activation of the cardiac gene program in the stem cells. While the expression of RCAN1 suggests involvement of the well-characterized calcineurin-NFAT pathway as a response to a Ca(2+) signal, the CAMTA1 up-regulated expression as a response to such a signal in the stem cells was unknown. Cell-cell communications between the stem cells and adjacent cardiomyocytes induce Ca(2+) signals that activate a myocardial gene program in the stem cells via a novel and early Ca(2+)-dependent intermediate, up-regulation of CAMTA1.

Impact of Leukocyte Function-Associated Antigen-1 Blockade on Endogenous Allospecific T Cells to Multiple Minor Histocompatibility Antigen Mismatched Cardiac Allograft.

BACKGROUND: Blocking leukocyte function-associated antigen (LFA)-1 in organ transplant recipients prolongs allograft survival. However, the precise mechanisms underlying the therapeutic potential of LFA-1 blockade in preventing chronic rejection are not fully elucidated. Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is the preeminent cause of late cardiac allograft failure characterized histologically by concentric intimal hyperplasia. METHODS: Anti-LFA-1 monoclonal antibody was used in a multiple minor antigen-mismatched, BALB.B (H-2B) to C57BL/6 (H-2B), cardiac allograft model. Endogenous donor-specific CD8 T cells were tracked down using major histocompatibility complex multimers against the immunodominant H4, H7, H13, H28, and H60 minor Ags. RESULTS: The LFA-1 blockade prevented acute rejection and preserved palpable beating quality with reduced CD8 T-cell graft infiltration. Interestingly, less CD8 T cell infiltration was secondary to reduction of T-cell expansion rather than less trafficking. The LFA-1 blockade significantly suppressed the clonal expansion of minor histocompatibility antigen-specific CD8 T cells during the expansion and contraction phase. The CAV development was evaluated with morphometric analysis at postoperation day 100. The LFA-1 blockade profoundly attenuated neointimal hyperplasia (61.6 vs 23.8%; P < 0.05), CAV-affected vessel number (55.3 vs 15.9%; P < 0.05), and myocardial fibrosis (grade 3.29 vs 1.8; P < 0.05). Finally, short-term LFA-1 blockade promoted long-term donor-specific regulation, which resulted in attenuated transplant arteriosclerosis. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, LFA-1 blockade inhibits initial endogenous alloreactive T-cell expansion and induces more regulation. Such a mechanism supports a pulse tolerance induction strategy with anti-LFA-1 rather than long-term treatment.

Examination of Endogenous Rotund Expression and Function in Developing Drosophila Olfactory System Using CRISPR-Cas9-Mediated Protein Tagging.

The zinc-finger protein Rotund (Rn) plays a critical role in controlling the development of the fly olfactory system. However, little is known about its molecular function in vivo. Here, we added protein tags to the rn locus using CRISPR-Cas9 technology in Drosophila to investigate its subcellular localization and the genes that it regulates . We previously used a reporter construct to show that rn is expressed in a subset of olfactory receptor neuron (ORN) precursors and it is required for the diversification of ORN fates. Here, we show that tagged endogenous Rn protein is functional based on the analysis of ORN phenotypes. Using this method, we also mapped the expression pattern of the endogenous isoform-specific tags in vivo with increased precision. Comparison of the Rn expression pattern from this study with previously published results using GAL4 reporters showed that Rn is mainly present in early steps in antennal disc patterning, but not in pupal stages when ORNs are born. Finally, using chromatin immunoprecipitation, we showed a direct binding of Rotund to a previously identified regulatory element upstream of the bric-a-brac gene locus in the developing antennal disc.

Allopregnanolone Levels Are Inversely Associated with Self-Reported Pain Symptoms in U.S. Iraq and Afghanistan-Era Veterans: Implications for Biomarkers and Therapeutics.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pain symptoms are common among Iraq/Afghanistan-era veterans, many of whom continue to experience persistent pain symptoms despite multiple pharmacological interventions. Preclinical data suggest that neurosteroids such as allopregnanolone demonstrate pronounced analgesic properties, and thus represent logical biomarker candidates and therapeutic targets for pain. Allopregnanolone is also a positive GABAA receptor modulator with anxiolytic, anticonvulsant, and neuroprotective actions in rodent models. We previously reported inverse associations between serum allopregnanolone levels and self-reported pain symptom severity in a pilot study of 82 male veterans. METHODS: The current study investigates allopregnanolone levels in a larger cohort of 485 male Iraq/Afghanistan-era veterans to attempt to replicate these initial findings. Pain symptoms were assessed by items from the Symptom Checklist-90-R (SCL-90-R) querying headache, chest pain, muscle soreness, and low back pain over the past 7 days. Allopregnanolone levels were quantified by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. RESULTS: Associations between pain ratings and allopregnanolone levels were examined with Poisson regression analyses, controlling for age and smoking. Bivariate nonparametric Mann–Whitney analyses examining allopregnanolone levels across high and low levels of pain were also conducted. Allopregnanolone levels were inversely associated with muscle soreness [P = 0.0028], chest pain [P = 0.032], and aggregate total pain (sum of all four pain items) [P = 0.0001]. In the bivariate analyses, allopregnanolone levels were lower in the group reporting high levels of muscle soreness [P = 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are generally consistent with our prior pilot study and suggest that allopregnanolone may function as an endogenous analgesic. Thus, exogenous supplementation with allopregnanolone could have therapeutic potential. The characterization of neurosteroid profiles may also have biomarker utility.