Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Adaptive stereotactic body radiation therapy planning for lung cancer.

PURPOSE: To investigate the dosimetric effects of adaptive planning on lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Forty of 66 consecutive lung SBRT patients were selected for a retrospective adaptive planning study. CBCT images acquired at each fraction were used for treatment planning. Adaptive plans were created using the same planning parameters as the original CT-based plan, with the goal to achieve comparable comformality index (CI). For each patient, 2 cumulative plans, nonadaptive plan (PNON) and adaptive plan (PADP), were generated and compared for the following organs-at-risks (OARs): cord, esophagus, chest wall, and the lungs. Dosimetric comparison was performed between PNON and PADP for all 40 patients. Correlations were evaluated between changes in dosimetric metrics induced by adaptive planning and potential impacting factors, including tumor-to-OAR distances (dT-OAR), initial internal target volume (ITV1), ITV change (ΔITV), and effective ITV diameter change (ΔdITV). RESULTS: 34 (85%) patients showed ITV decrease and 6 (15%) patients showed ITV increase throughout the course of lung SBRT. Percentage ITV change ranged from -59.6% to 13.0%, with a mean (±SD) of -21.0% (±21.4%). On average of all patients, PADP resulted in significantly (P=0 to .045) lower values for all dosimetric metrics. ΔdITV/dT-OAR was found to correlate with changes in dose to 5 cc (ΔD5cc) of esophagus (r=0.61) and dose to 30 cc (ΔD30cc) of chest wall (r=0.81). Stronger correlations between ΔdITV/dT-OAR and ΔD30cc of chest wall were discovered for peripheral (r=0.81) and central (r=0.84) tumors, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Dosimetric effects of adaptive lung SBRT planning depend upon target volume changes and tumor-to-OAR distances. Adaptive lung SBRT can potentially reduce dose to adjacent OARs if patients present large tumor volume shrinkage during the treatment.

The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

Sea Urchin Body Plan Development and Evolution: An Integrative Transcriptomic Approach

My dissertation work integrates comparative transcriptomics and functional analyses to investigate gene expression changes underlying two significant aspects of sea urchin evolution and development: the dramatic developmental changes associated with an ecologically significant shift in life history strategy and the development of the unusual radial body plan of adult sea urchins.

In Chapter 2, I investigate evolutionary changes in gene expression underlying the switch from feeding (planktotrophic) to nonfeeding (lecithotrophic) development in sea urchins. In order to identify these changes, I used Illumina RNA-seq to measure expression dynamics across 7 developmental stages in three sea urchin species: the lecithotroph Heliocidaris erythrogramma, the closely related planktotroph Heliocidaris tuberculata, and an outgroup planktotroph Lytechinus variegatus. My analyses draw on a well-characterized developmental gene regulatory network (GRN) in sea urchins to understand how the ancestral planktotrophic developmental program was altered during the evolution of lecithotrophic development. My results suggest that changes in gene expression profiles occurred more frequently across the transcriptome during the evolution of lecithotrophy than during the persistence of planktotrophy. These changes were even more pronounced within the GRN than across the transcriptome as a whole, and occurred in each network territory (skeletogenic, endomesoderm and ectoderm). I found evidence for both conservation and divergence of regulatory interactions in the network, as well as significant changes in the expression of genes with known roles in larval skeletogenesis, which is dramatically altered in lecithotrophs. I further explored network dynamics between species using coexpression analyses, which allowed me to identify novel players likely involved in sea urchin neurogenesis and endoderm patterning.

In Chapter 3, I investigate developmental changes in gene expression underlying radial body plan development and metamorphosis in H. erythrogramma. Using Illumina RNA-seq, I measured gene expression profiles across larval, metamorphic, and post-metamorphic life cycle phases. My results present a high-resolution view of gene expression dynamics during the complex transition from pre- to post-metamorphic development and suggest that distinct sets of regulatory and effector proteins are used during different life history phases.

Collectively, my investigations provide an important foundation for future, empirical studies to investigate the functional role of gene expression change in the evolution of developmental differences between species and also for the generation of the unusual radial body plan of sea urchins.

Empirical measurement of illicit tobacco trade in the Philippines.

Cigarette smuggling reduces the price of cigarettes, thwarts youth access restrictions, reduces government revenue, and undercuts the ability of taxes to reduce consumption. The tobacco industry often opposes increases to tobacco taxes on the claim that greater taxes induce more smuggling. To date, little is known about the magnitude of smuggling in the Philippines. his information is necessary to effectively address illicit trade and to measure the impacts of tax changes and the introduction of secure tax markings on illicit trade. This study employs two gap discrepancy methods to estimate the magnitude of illicit trade in cigarettes for the Philippines between 1994 and 2009. First, domestic consumption is compared with tax-paid sales to measure the consumption of illicit cigarettes. Second, imports recorded by the Philippines are compared with exports to the Philippines by trade partners to measure smuggling. Domestic consumption fell short of tax-paid sales for all survey years. The magnitude of these differences and a comparison with a prevalence survey for 2009 suggest a high level of survey under-reporting of smoking. In the late 1990s and the mid 2000s, the Philippines experienced two sharp declines in trade discrepancies, from a high of $750 million in 1995 to a low of $133.7 million in 2008. Discrepancies composed more than one-third of the domestic market in 1995, but only 10 percent in 2009. Hong Kong, Singapore, and China together account for more than 80 percent of the cumulative discrepancies over the period and 74 percent of the discrepancy in 2009. The presence of large discrepancies supports the need to implement an effective tax marking and tobacco track and trace system to reduce illicit trade and support tax collection. The absence of a relation between tax changes and smuggling suggests that potential increases in the excise tax should not be discouraged by illicit trade. Finally, the identification of specific trade partners as primary sources for illicit trade may facilitate targeted efforts in cooperation with these governments to reduce illicit trade.