Influence of Increased Human Presence in the Mills River Basin on Water Availability and Drought

Periods of drought and low streamflow can have profound impacts on both human and natural systems. People depend on a reliable source of water for numerous reasons including potable water supply and to produce economic value through agriculture or energy production. Aquatic ecosystems depend on water in addition to the economic benefits they provide to society through ecosystem services. Given that periods of low streamflow may become more extreme and frequent in the future, it is important to study the factors that control water availability during these times. In the absence of precipitation the slower hydrological response of groundwater systems will play an amplified role in water supply. Understanding the variability of the fraction of streamflow contribution from baseflow or groundwater during periods of drought provides insight into what future water availability may look like and how it can best be managed. The Mills River Basin in North Carolina is chosen as a case-study to test this understanding. First, obtaining a physically meaningful estimation of baseflow from USGS streamflow data via computerized hydrograph analysis techniques is carried out. Then applying a method of time series analysis including wavelet analysis can highlight signals of non-stationarity and evaluate the changes in variance required to better understand the natural variability of baseflow and low flows. In addition to natural variability, human influence must be taken into account in order to accurately assess how the combined system reacts to periods of low flow. Defining a combined demand that consists of both natural and human demand allows us to be more rigorous in assessing the level of sustainable use of a shared resource, in this case water. The analysis of baseflow variability can differ based on regional location and local hydrogeology, but it was found that baseflow varies from multiyear scales such as those associated with ENSO (3.5, 7 years) up to multi decadal time scales, but with most of the contributing variance coming from decadal or multiyear scales. It was also found that the behavior of baseflow and subsequently water availability depends a great deal on overall precipitation, the tracks of hurricanes or tropical storms and associated climate indices, as well as physiography and hydrogeology. Evaluating and utilizing the Duke Combined Hydrology Model (DCHM), reasonably accurate estimates of streamflow during periods of low flow were obtained in part due to the model’s ability to capture subsurface processes. Being able to accurately simulate streamflow levels and subsurface interactions during periods of drought can be very valuable to water suppliers, decision makers, and ultimately impact citizens. Knowledge of future droughts and periods of low flow in addition to tracking customer demand will allow for better management practices on the part of water suppliers such as knowing when they should withdraw more water during a surplus so that the level of stress on the system is minimized when there is not ample water supply.

Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States during recent decades

The variability of summer precipitation in the southeastern United States is examined in this study using 60-yr (1948-2007) rainfall data. The Southeast summer rainfalls exhibited higher interannual variability with more intense summer droughts and anomalous wetness in the recent 30 years (1978-2007) than in the prior 30 years (1948-77). Such intensification of summer rainfall variability was consistent with a decrease of light (0.1-1 mm day-1) and medium (1-10 mm day-1) rainfall events during extremely dry summers and an increase of heavy (.10 mm day-1) rainfall events in extremely wet summers. Changes in rainfall variability were also accompanied by a southward shift of the region of maximum zonal wind variability at the jet stream level in the latter period. The covariability between the Southeast summer precipitation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is also analyzed using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method. It is shown that the increase of Southeast summer precipitation variability is primarily associated with a higher SST variability across the equatorial Atlantic and also SST warming in the Atlantic. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Conversion of natural forests to managed forest plantations decreases tree resistance to prolonged droughts

© 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.Throughout the southern US, past forest management practices have replaced large areas of native forests with loblolly pine plantations and have resulted in changes in forest response to extreme weather conditions. However, uncertainty remains about the response of planted versus natural species to drought across the geographical range of these forests. Taking advantage of a cluster of unmanaged stands (85-130year-old hardwoods) and managed plantations (17-20year-old loblolly pine) in coastal and Piedmont areas of North Carolina, tree water use, cavitation resistance, whole-tree hydraulic (Ktree) and stomatal (Gs) conductances were measured in four sites covering representative forests growing in the region. We also used a hydraulic model to predict the resilience of those sites to extreme soil drying. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if Ktree and stomatal regulation in response to atmospheric and soil droughts differ between species and sites; (2) how ecosystem type, through tree water use, resistance to cavitation and rooting profiles, affects the water uptake limit that can be reached under drought; and (3) the influence of stand species composition on critical transpiration that sets a functional water uptake limit under drought conditions. The results show that across sites, water stress affected the coordination between Ktree and Gs. As soil water content dropped below 20% relative extractable water, Ktree declined faster and thus explained the decrease in Gs and in its sensitivity to vapor pressure deficit. Compared to branches, the capability of roots to resist high xylem tension has a great impact on tree-level water use and ultimately had important implications for pine plantations resistance to future summer droughts. Model simulations revealed that the decline in Ktree due to xylem cavitation aggravated the effects of soil drying on tree transpiration. The critical transpiration rate (Ecrit), which corresponds to the maximum rate at which transpiration begins to level off to prevent irreversible hydraulic failure, was higher in managed forest plantations than in their unmanaged counterparts. However, even with this higher Ecrit, the pine plantations operated very close to their critical leaf water potentials (i.e. to their permissible water potentials without total hydraulic failure), suggesting that intensively managed plantations are more drought-sensitive and can withstand less severe drought than natural forests.

Bridging the Scale Gap from Leaf to Canopy in Biosphere-Atmosphere Gas and Particle Exchanges

Terrestrial ecosystems, occupying more than 25% of the Earth's surface, can serve as

`biological valves' in regulating the anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric aerosol

particles and greenhouse gases (GHGs) as responses to their surrounding environments.

While the signicance of quantifying the exchange rates of GHGs and atmospheric

aerosol particles between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere is

hardly questioned in many scientic elds, the progress in improving model predictability,

data interpretation or the combination of the two remains impeded by

the lack of precise framework elucidating their dynamic transport processes over a

wide range of spatiotemporal scales. The diculty in developing prognostic modeling

tools to quantify the source or sink strength of these atmospheric substances

can be further magnied by the fact that the climate system is also sensitive to the

feedback from terrestrial ecosystems forming the so-called `feedback cycle'. Hence,

the emergent need is to reduce uncertainties when assessing this complex and dynamic

feedback cycle that is necessary to support the decisions of mitigation and

adaptation policies associated with human activities (e.g., anthropogenic emission

controls and land use managements) under current and future climate regimes.

With the goal to improve the predictions for the biosphere-atmosphere exchange

of biologically active gases and atmospheric aerosol particles, the main focus of this

dissertation is on revising and up-scaling the biotic and abiotic transport processes

from leaf to canopy scales. The validity of previous modeling studies in determining

iv

the exchange rate of gases and particles is evaluated with detailed descriptions of their

limitations. Mechanistic-based modeling approaches along with empirical studies

across dierent scales are employed to rene the mathematical descriptions of surface

conductance responsible for gas and particle exchanges as commonly adopted by all

operational models. Specically, how variation in horizontal leaf area density within

the vegetated medium, leaf size and leaf microroughness impact the aerodynamic attributes

and thereby the ultrane particle collection eciency at the leaf/branch scale

is explored using wind tunnel experiments with interpretations by a porous media

model and a scaling analysis. A multi-layered and size-resolved second-order closure

model combined with particle

uxes and concentration measurements within and

above a forest is used to explore the particle transport processes within the canopy

sub-layer and the partitioning of particle deposition onto canopy medium and forest

oor. For gases, a modeling framework accounting for the leaf-level boundary layer

eects on the stomatal pathway for gas exchange is proposed and combined with sap

ux measurements in a wind tunnel to assess how leaf-level transpiration varies with

increasing wind speed. How exogenous environmental conditions and endogenous

soil-root-stem-leaf hydraulic and eco-physiological properties impact the above- and

below-ground water dynamics in the soil-plant system and shape plant responses

to droughts is assessed by a porous media model that accommodates the transient

water

ow within the plant vascular system and is coupled with the aforementioned

leaf-level gas exchange model and soil-root interaction model. It should be noted

that tackling all aspects of potential issues causing uncertainties in forecasting the

feedback cycle between terrestrial ecosystem and the climate is unrealistic in a single

dissertation but further research questions and opportunities based on the foundation

derived from this dissertation are also brie

y discussed.