Spatial distribution of bednet coverage under routine distribution through the public health sector in a rural district in Kenya.

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are one of the most important and cost-effective tools for malaria control. Maximizing individual and community benefit from ITNs requires high population-based coverage. Several mechanisms are used to distribute ITNs, including health facility-based targeted distribution to high-risk groups; community-based mass distribution; social marketing with or without private sector subsidies; and integrating ITN delivery with other public health interventions. The objective of this analysis is to describe bednet coverage in a district in western Kenya where the primary mechanism for distribution is to pregnant women and infants who attend antenatal and immunization clinics. We use data from a population-based census to examine the extent of, and factors correlated with, ownership of bednets. We use both multivariable logistic regression and spatial techniques to explore the relationship between household bednet ownership and sociodemographic and geographic variables. We show that only 21% of households own any bednets, far lower than the national average, and that ownership is not significantly higher amongst pregnant women attending antenatal clinic. We also show that coverage is spatially heterogeneous with less than 2% of the population residing in zones with adequate coverage to experience indirect effects of ITN protection.

Distribution of HPV genotypes in cervical intraepithelial lesions and cervical cancer in Tanzanian women.

BACKGROUND: Infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is associated with uterine cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) and invasive cancers (ICC). Approximately 80% of ICC cases are diagnosed in under-developed countries. Vaccine development relies on knowledge of HPV genotypes characteristic of LSIL, HSIL and cancer; however, these genotypes remain poorly characterized in many African countries. To contribute to the characterization of HPV genotypes in Northeastern Tanzania, we recruited 215 women from the Reproductive Health Clinic at Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre. Cervical scrapes and biopsies were obtained for cytology and HPV DNA detection. RESULTS: 79 out of 215 (36.7%) enrolled participants tested positive for HPV DNA, with a large proportion being multiple infections (74%). The prevalence of HPV infection increased with lesion grade (14% in controls, 67% in CIN1 cases and 88% in CIN2-3). Among ICC cases, 89% had detectable HPV. Overall, 31 HPV genotypes were detected; the three most common HPV genotypes among ICC were HPV16, 35 and 45. In addition to these genotypes, co-infection with HPV18, 31, 33, 52, 58, 68 and 82 was found in 91% of ICC. Among women with CIN2-3, HPV53, 58 and 84/83 were the most common. HPV35, 45, 53/58/59 were the most common among CIN1 cases. CONCLUSIONS: In women with no evidence of cytological abnormalities, the most prevalent genotypes were HPV58 with HPV16, 35, 52, 66 and 73 occurring equally. Although numerical constraints limit inference, findings that 91% of ICC harbor only a small number of HPV genotypes suggests that prevention efforts including vaccine development or adjuvant screening should focus on these genotypes.

The distribution of sales revenues from pharmaceutical innovation.

OBJECTIVE: This report updates our earlier work on the returns to pharmaceutical research and development (R&D) in the US (1980 to 1984), which showed that the returns distributions are highly skewed. It evaluates a more recent cohort of new drug introductions in the US (1988 to 1992) and examines how the returns distribution is emerging for drugs with life cycles concentrated in the 1990s versus the 1980s. DESIGN AND SETTING: Methods were described in detail in our earlier reports. The current sample included 110 new drug entities (including 28 orphan drugs), and sales data were obtained for the period 1988 to 1998, which represented between 7 and 11 years of sales for the drugs included. 20 years was chosen as the expected market life for this cohort, and a 2-step procedure was used to project future sales for the drugs--during the period until patent expiry and then beyond patent expiry until the 20-year time-horizon was completed. Thus, the values in the first half of the life cycle are essentially based on realised sales, while those in the second half are projected using information on patent expiry and other inputs. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND RESULTS: Peak annual sales for the top decile of drugs introduced between 1988 and 1992 in the US amounted to almost $US1.1 billion compared with peak sales of less than $US175 million (1992 values) for the mean compound. In particular, the top decile accounted for 56% of overall sales revenue. Although the sales distributions were skewed in both our earlier and current analysis, the top decile in the later time-period exhibited more rapid rates of growth after launch, a peak that was more than 50% greater in real terms than for the 1980 to 1984 cohort, and a faster rate of expected decline in sales after patent expiry. One factor contributing to the distribution of sales revenues becoming more skewed over time is the orphan drug phenomenon (i.e. most of the orphan drugs are concentrated at the bottom of the distribution). CONCLUSION: The distribution of sales revenues for new drug compounds is highly skewed in nature. In this regard, the top decile of new drugs accounts for more than half of the total sales generated by the 1988 to 1992 cohort analysed. Furthermore, the distribution of sales revenues for this cohort is more skewed than that of the 1980 to 1984 cohort we analysed in previous research.

The reminiscence bump in the temporal distribution of the best football players of all time: Pelé, Cruijff or Maradona?

The reminiscence bump is the tendency to recall more autobiographical memories from adolescence and early adulthood than from adjacent lifetime periods. In this online study, the robustness of the reminiscence bump was examined by looking at participants' judgements about the quality of football players. Dutch participants (N = 619) were asked who they thought the five best players of all time were. The participants could select the names from a list or enter the names when their favourite players were not on the list. Johan Cruijff, Pelé, and Diego Maradona were the three most often mentioned players. Participants frequently named football players who reached the midpoint of their career when the participants were adolescents (mode = 17). The results indicate that the reminiscence bump can also be identified outside the autobiographical memory domain.

The temporal distribution of autobiographical memory: changes in reliving and vividness over the life span do not explain the reminiscence bump.

When autobiographical memories are elicited with word cues, personal events from middle childhood to early adulthood are overrepresented compared to events from other periods. It is, however, unclear whether these memories are also associated with greater recollection. In this online study, we examined whether autobiographical memories from adolescence and early adulthood are recollected more than memories from other lifetime periods. Participants rated personal events that were elicited with cue words on reliving or vividness. Consistent with previous studies, most memories came from the period in which the participants were between 6 and 20 years old. The memories from this period were not relived more or recalled more vividly than memories from other lifetime periods, suggesting that they do not involve more recollection. Recent events had higher levels of reliving and vividness than remote events, and older adults reported a stronger recollective experience than younger adults.

The distribution of early childhood memories.

The quantitative distribution of autobiographical memories for the first decade of life is described. The distribution, based on over 11,000 autobiographical memories from age 10 and younger from published studies, is nearly identical for males and females, for participants of different ages, and for different methods of collecting data, including using words to cue memories from anywhere in the lifespan or from just the childhood years, exhaustive listing of all early memories, and interviews.

Distribution of important and word-cued autobiographical memories in 20-, 35-, and 70-year-old adults.

For word-cued autobiographical memories, older adults had an increase, or bump, from the ages 10 to 30. All age groups had fewer memories from childhood than from other years and a power-function retention for memories from the most recent 10 years. There were no consistent differences in reaction times and rating scale responses across decades. Concrete words cued older memories, but no property of the cues predicted which memories would come from the bump. The 5 most important memories given by 20- and 35-year-old participants were distributed similarly to their word-cued memories, but those given by 70-year-old participants came mostly from the single 20-to-30 decade. No theory fully accounts for the bump.

The distribution of autobiographical memories across the lifespan.

Words were used to cue autobiographical memories from 20- and 70-year-old subjects. Both groups showed a decrease in memories from the childhood years and a power-function retention function for their most recent 10 years. Older subjects also had an increase in the number of memories from the ages 10 to 30. These results held for individual subjects as well as grouped data and held when either 124 or 921 memories were cued. Reaction times to produce memories were constant across decades except for childhood where they were longer.

Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir,Beijing, China

The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.