Assessing Surveillance Elements of the Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Program to Support Malaria Elimination in Zanzibar

Though significant progress has been made through control efforts in recent years, malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality throughout the world, with 3.2 billion people at risk of developing the disease. Zanzibar is currently pursuing malaria elimination through the Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Program (ZAMEP), and is working toward a goal of no locally acquired malaria cases by 2018. A comprehensive and well functioning malaria surveillance program is central to achieving this goal. Under ZAMEP’s current surveillance strategy, District Malaria Surveillance Officers (DMSOs) respond to malaria case notifications through the reactive case detection (RACD) system. Three malaria screening and treatment strategies are undertaken in response to this system, including household-level (HSaT), focal-level (FSaT), and mass-level (MSaT). Each strategy is triggered by a different case threshold and tests different-sized populations. The aims of this study were to (1) assess the cost effectiveness of three malaria screening and treatment strategies; (2) assess the timeliness and completeness of ZAMEP’s RACD system; (3) and qualitatively explore the roles of DMSOs.

Screening disposition and budget information for 2014 screening and treatment strategies was analyzed to determine prevalence rates in screened populations and the cost effectiveness of each strategy. Prevalence rates within the screened population varied by strategy: 6.1 percent in HSaT, 1.2 percent in FSaT, and 0.9 percent in MSaT. Of the various costing scenarios considering cost per person screened, MSaT was the most cost-effective, with costs ranging from $9.57 to $12.57 per person screened. Of the various costing scenarios considering cost per case detected, HSaT was the most cost-effective, at $385.51 per case detected.

Case data from 2013 through mid-2015 was used to assess the timeliness and completeness of the RACD system. The average number of RACD activities occurring within 48 hours of notification improved slightly between 2013 and the first half of 2015, from 90.7 percent to 93.1 percent. The average percentage of household members screened during RACD also increased over the same time period, from 84 percent in 2013 to 89.9 percent in the first half of 2015.

Interviews with twenty DMSOs were conducted to gain insights into the challenges to malaria elimination both from the health system and the community perspectives. Major themes discussed in the interviews include the need for additional training, inadequate information capture at health facility, resistance to household testing, transportation difficulties, inadequate personnel during the high transmission season, and community misinformation.

Zanzibar is now considered a low transmission setting, making elimination feasible, but also posing new challenges to achieving this goal. The findings of this study provide insight into how surveillance activities can be improved to support the goal of malaria elimination in Zanzibar. Key changes include reevaluating the use of MSaT activities, improving information capture at health facilities, hiring additional DMSOs during the high transmission season, and improving community communication.

Innovation in the pharmaceutical industry: New estimates of R&D costs.

The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the cost estimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars).

Potential Cost-effectiveness of Early Identification of Hospital-acquired Infection in Critically Ill Patients.

RATIONALE: Limitations in methods for the rapid diagnosis of hospital-acquired infections often delay initiation of effective antimicrobial therapy. New diagnostic approaches offer potential clinical and cost-related improvements in the management of these infections. OBJECTIVES: We developed a decision modeling framework to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of a rapid biomarker assay to identify hospital-acquired infection in high-risk patients earlier than standard diagnostic testing. METHODS: The framework includes parameters representing rates of infection, rates of delayed appropriate therapy, and impact of delayed therapy on mortality, along with assumptions about diagnostic test characteristics and their impact on delayed therapy and length of stay. Parameter estimates were based on contemporary, published studies and supplemented with data from a four-site, observational, clinical study. Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed. The base-case analysis assumed 17.6% of ventilated patients and 11.2% of nonventilated patients develop hospital-acquired infection and that 28.7% of patients with hospital-acquired infection experience delays in appropriate antibiotic therapy with standard care. We assumed this percentage decreased by 50% (to 14.4%) among patients with true-positive results and increased by 50% (to 43.1%) among patients with false-negative results using a hypothetical biomarker assay. Cost of testing was set at $110/d. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, among ventilated patients, daily diagnostic testing starting on admission reduced inpatient mortality from 12.3 to 11.9% and increased mean costs by $1,640 per patient, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21,389 per life-year saved. Among nonventilated patients, inpatient mortality decreased from 7.3 to 7.1% and costs increased by $1,381 with diagnostic testing. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $42,325 per life-year saved. Threshold analyses revealed the probabilities of developing hospital-acquired infection in ventilated and nonventilated patients could be as low as 8.4 and 9.8%, respectively, to maintain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $50,000 per life-year saved. CONCLUSIONS: Development and use of serial diagnostic testing that reduces the proportion of patients with delays in appropriate antibiotic therapy for hospital-acquired infections could reduce inpatient mortality. The model presented here offers a cost-effectiveness framework for future test development.