Equity trading volume and volatility: Latent information arrivals and common long-run dependencies

This article examines the behavior of equity trading volume and volatility for the individual firms composing the Standard & Poor's 100 composite index. Using multivariate spectral methods, we find that fractionally integrated processes best describe the long-run temporal dependencies in both series. Consistent with a stylized mixture-of-distributions hypothesis model in which the aggregate "news"-arrival process possesses long-memory characteristics, the long-run hyperbolic decay rates appear to be common across each volume-volatility pair.

How common are common mental disorders? Evidence that lifetime prevalence rates are doubled by prospective versus retrospective ascertainment.

BACKGROUND: Most information about the lifetime prevalence of mental disorders comes from retrospective surveys, but how much these surveys have undercounted due to recall failure is unknown. We compared results from a prospective study with those from retrospective studies. METHOD: The representative 1972-1973 Dunedin New Zealand birth cohort (n=1037) was followed to age 32 years with 96% retention, and compared to the national New Zealand Mental Health Survey (NZMHS) and two US National Comorbidity Surveys (NCS and NCS-R). Measures were research diagnoses of anxiety, depression, alcohol dependence and cannabis dependence from ages 18 to 32 years. RESULTS: The prevalence of lifetime disorder to age 32 was approximately doubled in prospective as compared to retrospective data for all four disorder types. Moreover, across disorders, prospective measurement yielded a mean past-year-to-lifetime ratio of 38% whereas retrospective measurement yielded higher mean past-year-to-lifetime ratios of 57% (NZMHS, NCS-R) and 65% (NCS). CONCLUSIONS: Prospective longitudinal studies complement retrospective surveys by providing unique information about lifetime prevalence. The experience of at least one episode of DSM-defined disorder during a lifetime may be far more common in the population than previously thought. Research should ask what this means for etiological theory, construct validity of the DSM approach, public perception of stigma, estimates of the burden of disease and public health policy.

A novel mutation of the ACADM gene (c.145C>G) associated with the common c.985A>G mutation on the other ACADM allele causes mild MCAD deficiency: a case report.

A female patient, with normal familial history, developed at the age of 30 months an episode of diarrhoea, vomiting and lethargy which resolved spontaneously. At the age of 3 years, the patient re-iterated vomiting, was sub-febrile and hypoglycemic, fell into coma, developed seizures and sequels involving right hemi-body. Urinary excretion of hexanoylglycine and suberylglycine was low during this metabolic decompensation. A study of pre- and post-prandial blood glucose and ketones over a period of 24 hours showed a normal glycaemic cycle but a failure to form ketones after 12 hours fasting, suggesting a mitochondrial β-oxidation defect. Total blood carnitine was lowered with unesterified carnitine being half of the lowest control value. A diagnosis of mild MCAD deficiency (MCADD) was based on rates of 1-14C-octanoate and 9, 10-3H-myristate oxidation and of octanoyl-CoA dehydrogenase being reduced to 25% of control values. Other mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation proteins were functionally normal. De novo acylcarnitine synthesis in whole blood samples incubated with deuterated palmitate was also typical of MCADD. Genetic studies showed that the patient was compound heterozygous with a sequence variation in both of the two ACADM alleles; one had the common c.985A>G mutation and the other had a novel c.145C>G mutation. This is the first report for the ACADM gene c.145C>G mutation: it is located in exon 3 and causes a replacement of glutamine to glutamate at position 24 of the mature protein (Q24E). Associated with heterozygosity for c.985A>G mutation, this mutation is responsible for a mild MCADD phenotype along with a clinical story corroborating the emerging literature view that patients with genotypes representing mild MCADD (high residual enzyme activity and low urinary levels of glycine conjugates), similar to some of the mild MCADDs detected by MS/MS newborn screening, may be at risk for disease presentation.

Common genetic variation and the control of HIV-1 in humans.

To extend the understanding of host genetic determinants of HIV-1 control, we performed a genome-wide association study in a cohort of 2,554 infected Caucasian subjects. The study was powered to detect common genetic variants explaining down to 1.3% of the variability in viral load at set point. We provide overwhelming confirmation of three associations previously reported in a genome-wide study and show further independent effects of both common and rare variants in the Major Histocompatibility Complex region (MHC). We also examined the polymorphisms reported in previous candidate gene studies and fail to support a role for any variant outside of the MHC or the chemokine receptor cluster on chromosome 3. In addition, we evaluated functional variants, copy-number polymorphisms, epistatic interactions, and biological pathways. This study thus represents a comprehensive assessment of common human genetic variation in HIV-1 control in Caucasians.

The Emergence of Access Controls in Small-Scale Fishing Commons: A Comparative Analysis of Individual Licenses and Common Property-Rights in Two Mexican Communities

Addressing global fisheries overexploitation requires better understanding of how small-scale fishing communities in developing countries limit access to fishing grounds. We analyze the performance of a system based on individual licenses and a common property-rights regime in their ability to generate incentives for self-governance and conservation of fishery resources. Using a qualitative before-after-control-impact approach, we compare two neighbouring fishing communities in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Both were initially governed by the same permit system, are situated in the same ecosystem, use similar harvesting technology, and have overharvested similar species. One community changed to a common property-right regime, enabling the emergence of access controls and avoiding overexploitation of benthic resources, while the other community, still relies on the permit system. We discuss the roles played by power, institutions, socio-historic, and biophysical factors to develop access controls. © 2012 The Author(s).

The dynamic efficiency costs of common-pool resource exploitation

We conduct the first empirical investigation of common-pool resource users' dynamic and strategic behavior at the micro level using real-world data. Fishermen's strategies in a fully dynamic game account for latent resource dynamics and other players' actions, revealing the profit structure of the fishery. We compare the fishermen's actual and socially optimal exploitation paths under a time-specific vessel allocation policy and find a sizable dynamic externality. Individual fishermen respond to other users by exerting effort above the optimal level early in the season. Congestion is costly instantaneously but is beneficial in the long run because it partially offsets dynamic inefficiencies.

Association of Common Genetic Polymorphisms with Melanoma Patient IL-12p40 Blood Levels, Risk, and Outcomes.

Recent investigation has identified association of IL-12p40 blood levels with melanoma recurrence and patient survival. No studies have investigated associations of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with melanoma patient IL-12p40 blood levels or their potential contributions to melanoma susceptibility or patient outcome. In the current study, 818,237 SNPs were available for 1,804 melanoma cases and 1,026 controls. IL-12p40 blood levels were assessed among 573 cases (discovery), 249 cases (case validation), and 299 controls (control validation). SNPs were evaluated for association with log[IL-12p40] levels in the discovery data set and replicated in two validation data sets, and significant SNPs were assessed for association with melanoma susceptibility and patient outcomes. The most significant SNP associated with log[IL-12p40] was in the IL-12B gene region (rs6897260, combined P=9.26 × 10(-38)); this single variant explained 13.1% of variability in log[IL-12p40]. The most significant SNP in EBF1 was rs6895454 (combined P=2.24 × 10(-9)). A marker in IL12B was associated with melanoma susceptibility (rs3213119, multivariate P=0.0499; OR=1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.24), whereas a marker in EBF1 was associated with melanoma-specific survival in advanced-stage patients (rs10515789, multivariate P=0.02; HR=1.93, 95% CI 1.11-3.35). Both EBF1 and IL12B strongly regulate IL-12p40 blood levels, and IL-12p40 polymorphisms may contribute to melanoma susceptibility and influence patient outcome.

"Thinking too much": A systematic review of a common idiom of distress.

Idioms of distress communicate suffering via reference to shared ethnopsychologies, and better understanding of idioms of distress can contribute to effective clinical and public health communication. This systematic review is a qualitative synthesis of "thinking too much" idioms globally, to determine their applicability and variability across cultures. We searched eight databases and retained publications if they included empirical quantitative, qualitative, or mixed-methods research regarding a "thinking too much" idiom and were in English. In total, 138 publications from 1979 to 2014 met inclusion criteria. We examined the descriptive epidemiology, phenomenology, etiology, and course of "thinking too much" idioms and compared them to psychiatric constructs. "Thinking too much" idioms typically reference ruminative, intrusive, and anxious thoughts and result in a range of perceived complications, physical and mental illnesses, or even death. These idioms appear to have variable overlap with common psychiatric constructs, including depression, anxiety, and PTSD. However, "thinking too much" idioms reflect aspects of experience, distress, and social positioning not captured by psychiatric diagnoses and often show wide within-cultural variation, in addition to between-cultural differences. Taken together, these findings suggest that "thinking too much" should not be interpreted as a gloss for psychiatric disorder nor assumed to be a unitary symptom or syndrome within a culture. We suggest five key ways in which engagement with "thinking too much" idioms can improve global mental health research and interventions: it (1) incorporates a key idiom of distress into measurement and screening to improve validity of efforts at identifying those in need of services and tracking treatment outcomes; (2) facilitates exploration of ethnopsychology in order to bolster cultural appropriateness of interventions; (3) strengthens public health communication to encourage engagement in treatment; (4) reduces stigma by enhancing understanding, promoting treatment-seeking, and avoiding unintentionally contributing to stigmatization; and (5) identifies a key locally salient treatment target.

Investigation and Development of a Fully 3D Tilt Capable Hybrid SPECT - CT System for Dedicated Breast Imaging

X-ray mammography has been the gold standard for breast imaging for decades, despite the significant limitations posed by the two dimensional (2D) image acquisitions. Difficulty in diagnosing lesions close to the chest wall and axilla, high amount of structural overlap and patient discomfort due to compression are only some of these limitations. To overcome these drawbacks, three dimensional (3D) breast imaging modalities have been developed including dual modality single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and computed tomography (CT) systems. This thesis focuses on the development and integration of the next generation of such a device for dedicated breast imaging. The goals of this dissertation work are to: [1] understand and characterize any effects of fully 3-D trajectories on reconstructed image scatter correction, absorbed dose and Hounsifeld Unit accuracy, and [2] design, develop and implement the fully flexible, third generation hybrid SPECT-CT system capable of traversing complex 3D orbits about a pendant breast volume, without interference from the other. Such a system would overcome artifacts resulting from incompletely sampled divergent cone beam imaging schemes and allow imaging closer to the chest wall, which other systems currently under research and development elsewhere cannot achieve.

The dependence of x-ray scatter radiation on object shape, size, material composition and the CT acquisition trajectory, was investigated with a well-established beam stop array (BSA) scatter correction method. While the 2D scatter to primary ratio (SPR) was the main metric used to characterize total system scatter, a new metric called ‘normalized scatter contribution’ was developed to compare the results of scatter correction on 3D reconstructed volumes. Scatter estimation studies were undertaken with a sinusoidal saddle (±15° polar tilt) orbit and a traditional circular (AZOR) orbit. Clinical studies to acquire data for scatter correction were used to evaluate the 2D SPR on a small set of patients scanned with the AZOR orbit. Clinical SPR results showed clear dependence of scatter on breast composition and glandular tissue distribution, otherwise consistent with the overall phantom-based size and density measurements. Additionally, SPR dependence was also observed on the acquisition trajectory where 2D scatter increased with an increase in the polar tilt angle of the system.

The dose delivered by any imaging system is of primary importance from the patient’s point of view, and therefore trajectory related differences in the dose distribution in a target volume were evaluated. Monte Carlo simulations as well as physical measurements using radiochromic film were undertaken using saddle and AZOR orbits. Results illustrated that both orbits deliver comparable dose to the target volume, and only slightly differ in distribution within the volume. Simulations and measurements showed similar results, and all measured dose values were within the standard screening mammography-specific, 6 mGy dose limit, which is used as a benchmark for dose comparisons.

Hounsfield Units (HU) are used clinically in differentiating tissue types in a reconstructed CT image, and therefore the HU accuracy of a system is very important, especially when using non-traditional trajectories. Uniform phantoms filled with various uniform density fluids were used to investigate differences in HU accuracy between saddle and AZOR orbits. Results illustrate the considerably better performance of the saddle orbit, especially close to the chest and nipple region of what would clinically be a pedant breast volume. The AZOR orbit causes shading artifacts near the nipple, due to insufficient sampling, rendering a major portion of the scanned phantom unusable, whereas the saddle orbit performs exceptionally well and provides a tighter distribution of HU values in reconstructed volumes.

Finally, the third generation, fully-suspended SPECT-CT system was designed in and developed in our lab. A novel mechanical method using a linear motor was developed for tilting the CT system. A new x-ray source and a custom made 40 x 30 cm2 detector were integrated on to this system. The SPECT system was nested, in the center of the gantry, orthogonal to the CT source-detector pair. The SPECT system tilts on a goniometer, and the newly developed CT tilting mechanism allows ±15° maximum polar tilting of the CT system. The entire gantry is mounted on a rotation stage, allowing complex arbitrary trajectories for each system, without interference from the other, while having a common field of view. This hybrid system shows potential to be used clinically as a diagnostic tool for dedicated breast imaging.