Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Immunization with cocktail of HIV-derived peptides in montanide ISA-51 is immunogenic, but causes sterile abscesses and unacceptable reactogenicity.

BACKGROUND: A peptide vaccine was produced containing B and T cell epitopes from the V3 and C4 Envelope domains of 4 subtype B HIV-1 isolates (MN, RF, CanO, & Ev91). The peptide mixture was formulated as an emulsion in incomplete Freund's adjuvant (IFA). METHODS: Low-risk, healthy adult subjects were enrolled in a randomized, placebo-controlled dose-escalation study, and selected using criteria specifying that 50% in each study group would be HLA-B7+. Immunizations were scheduled at 0, 1, and 6 months using a total peptide dose of 1 or 4 mg. Adaptive immune responses in16 vaccine recipients and two placebo recipients after the 2nd immunization were evaluated using neutralization assays of sera, as well as ELISpot and ICS assays of cryopreserved PBMCs to assess CD4 and CD8 T-cell responses. In addition, (51)Cr release assays were performed on fresh PBMCs following 14-day stimulation with individual vaccine peptide antigens. RESULTS: 24 subjects were enrolled; 18 completed 2 injections. The study was prematurely terminated because 4 vaccinees developed prolonged pain and sterile abscess formation at the injection site-2 after dose 1, and 2 after dose 2. Two other subjects experienced severe systemic reactions consisting of headache, chills, nausea, and myalgia. Both reactions occurred after the second 4 mg dose. The immunogenicity assessments showed that 6/8 vaccinees at each dose level had detectable MN-specific neutralizing (NT) activity, and 2/7 HLA-B7+ vaccinees had classical CD8 CTL activity detected. However, using both ELISpot and ICS, 8/16 vaccinees (5/7 HLA-B7+) and 0/2 controls had detectable vaccine-specific CD8 T-cell responses. Subjects with moderate or severe systemic or local reactions tended to have more frequent T cell responses and higher antibody responses than those with mild or no reactions. CONCLUSIONS: The severity of local responses related to the formulation of these four peptides in IFA is clinically unacceptable for continued development. Both HIV-specific antibody and T cell responses were induced and the magnitude of response correlated with the severity of local and systemic reactions. If potent adjuvants are necessary for subunit vaccines to induce broad and durable immune responses, careful, incremental clinical evaluation is warranted to minimize the risk of adverse events. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00000886.

Antisense Gene Silencing and Bacteriophages as Novel Disinfection Processes for Engineered Systems

The growth and proliferation of invasive bacteria in engineered systems is an ongoing problem. While there are a variety of physical and chemical processes to remove and inactivate bacterial pathogens, there are many situations in which these tools are no longer effective or appropriate for the treatment of a microbial target. For example, certain strains of bacteria are becoming resistant to commonly used disinfectants, such as chlorine and UV. Additionally, the overuse of antibiotics has contributed to the spread of antibiotic resistance, and there is concern that wastewater treatment processes are contributing to the spread of antibiotic resistant bacteria.

Due to the continually evolving nature of bacteria, it is difficult to develop methods for universal bacterial control in a wide range of engineered systems, as many of our treatment processes are static in nature. Still, invasive bacteria are present in many natural and engineered systems, where the application of broad acting disinfectants is impractical, because their use may inhibit the original desired bioprocesses. Therefore, to better control the growth of treatment resistant bacteria and to address limitations with the current disinfection processes, novel tools that are both specific and adaptable need to be developed and characterized.

In this dissertation, two possible biological disinfection processes were investigated for use in controlling invasive bacteria in engineered systems. First, antisense gene silencing, which is the specific use of oligonucleotides to silence gene expression, was investigated. This work was followed by the investigation of bacteriophages (phages), which are viruses that are specific to bacteria, in engineered systems.


For the antisense gene silencing work, a computational approach was used to quantify the number of off-targets and to determine the effects of off-targets in prokaryotic organisms. For the organisms of Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 and Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv the mean number of off-targets was found to be 15.0 + 13.2 and 38.2 + 61.4, respectively, which results in a reduction of greater than 90% of the effective oligonucleotide concentration. It was also demonstrated that there was a high variability in the number of off-targets over the length of a gene, but that on average, there was no general gene location that could be targeted to reduce off-targets. Therefore, this analysis needs to be performed for each gene in question. It was also demonstrated that the thermodynamic binding energy between the oligonucleotide and the mRNA accounted for 83% of the variation in the silencing efficiency, compared to the number of off-targets, which explained 43% of the variance of the silencing efficiency. This suggests that optimizing thermodynamic parameters must be prioritized over minimizing the number of off-targets. In conclusion for the antisense work, these results suggest that off-target hybrids can account for a greater than 90% reduction in the concentration of the silencing oligonucleotides, and that the effective concentration can be increased through the rational design of silencing targets by minimizing off-target hybrids.

Regarding the work with phages, the disinfection rates of bacteria in the presence of phages was determined. The disinfection rates of E. coli K12 MG1655 in the presence of coliphage Ec2 ranged up to 2 h-1, and were dependent on both the initial phage and bacterial concentrations. Increasing initial phage concentrations resulted in increasing disinfection rates, and generally, increasing initial bacterial concentrations resulted in increasing disinfection rates. However, disinfection rates were found to plateau at higher bacterial and phage concentrations. A multiple linear regression model was used to predict the disinfection rates as a function of the initial phage and bacterial concentrations, and this model was able to explain 93% of the variance in the disinfection rates. The disinfection rates were also modeled with a particle aggregation model. The results from these model simulations suggested that at lower phage and bacterial concentrations there are not enough collisions to support active disinfection rates, which therefore, limits the conditions and systems where phage based bacterial disinfection is possible. Additionally, the particle aggregation model over predicted the disinfection rates at higher phage and bacterial concentrations of 108 PFU/mL and 108 CFU/mL, suggesting other interactions were occurring at these higher concentrations. Overall, this work highlights the need for the development of alternative models to more accurately describe the dynamics of this system at a variety of phage and bacterial concentrations. Finally, the minimum required hydraulic residence time was calculated for a continuous stirred-tank reactor and a plug flow reactor (PFR) as a function of both the initial phage and bacterial concentrations, which suggested that phage treatment in a PFR is theoretically possible.

In addition to determining disinfection rates, the long-term bacterial growth inhibition potential was determined for a variety of phages with both Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria. It was determined, that on average, phages can be used to inhibit bacterial growth for up to 24 h, and that this effect was concentration dependent for various phages at specific time points. Additionally, it was found that a phage cocktail was no more effective at inhibiting bacterial growth over the long-term than the best performing phage in isolation.

Finally, for an industrial application, the use of phages to inhibit invasive Lactobacilli in ethanol fermentations was investigated. It was demonstrated that phage 8014-B2 can achieve a greater than 3-log inactivation of Lactobacillus plantarum during a 48 h fermentation. Additionally, it was shown that phages can be used to protect final product yields and maintain yeast viability. Through modeling the fermentation system with differential equations it was determined that there was a 10 h window in the beginning of the fermentation run, where the addition of phages can be used to protect final product yields, and after 20 h no additional benefit of the phage addition was observed.

In conclusion, this dissertation improved the current methods for designing antisense gene silencing targets for prokaryotic organisms, and characterized phages from an engineering perspective. First, the current design strategy for antisense targets in prokaryotic organisms was improved through the development of an algorithm that minimized the number of off-targets. For the phage work, a framework was developed to predict the disinfection rates in terms of the initial phage and bacterial concentrations. In addition, the long-term bacterial growth inhibition potential of multiple phages was determined for several bacteria. In regard to the phage application, phages were shown to protect both final product yields and yeast concentrations during fermentation. Taken together, this work suggests that the rational design of phage treatment is possible and further work is needed to expand on this foundation.

Automatic verification of linear controller software

© 2015 IEEE.We consider the problem of verification of software implementations of linear time-invariant controllers. Commonly, different implementations use different representations of the controller's state, for example due to optimizations in a third-party code generator. To accommodate this variation, we exploit input-output controller specification captured by the controller's transfer function and show how to automatically verify correctness of C code controller implementations using a Frama-C/Why3/Z3 toolchain. Scalability of the approach is evaluated using randomly generated controller specifications of realistic size.

Atherosclerosis: Viewing the problem from a different perspective including possible treatment options

This paper proposes that atherosclerosis is initiated by a signaling event that deposits calcium hydroxyapatite (Ca-HAP). This event is preceded by a loss of mechanical structure in the arterial wall. After Ca-HAP has been deposited, it is unlikely that it will be reabsorbed because the solubility product constant (K sp) is very small, and the large stores of Ca +2 and PO 4-3 in the bones oppose any attempts to dissolve Ca-HAP by decreasing the common ions. The hydroxide ion (OH -) of Ca-HAP can be displaced in nature by fluoride (F -) and carbonate (CO 3-2) ions, and it is proposed that anions associated with cholesterol ester hydrolysis and, in very small quantities, the enolate of 7-ketocholesterol could also displace the OH -of Ca-HAP, forming an ionic bond. The free energy of hydration of Ca-HAP at 310 K is most likely negative, and the ionic radii of the anions associated with the hydrolysis of cholesterol ester are compatible with the substitution. Furthermore, examination of the pathology of atherosclerotic lesions by Raman and NMR spectroscopy and confocal microscopy supports deposition of Ca-HAP associated with cholesterol. Investigating the affinity of intermediates of cholesterol hydrolysis for Ca-HAP compared to lipoproteins such as HDL, LDL, and VLDL using isothermic titration calorimetry could add proof of this concept and may lead to the development of a new class of medications targeted at the deposition of cholesterol within Ca-HAP. Treatment of acute ischemic events as a consequence of atherosclerosis with denitrogenation and oxygenation is discussed. © the author(s), publisher and licensee Libertas Academica Ltd.