Confidence intervals for half-life deviations from purchasing power parity

Existing point estimates of half-life deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP), around 3-5 years, suggest that the speed of convergence is extremely slow. This article assesses the degree of uncertainty around these point estimates by using local-to-unity asymptotic theory to construct confidence intervals that are robust to high persistence in small samples. The empirical evidence suggests that the lower bound of the confidence interval is between four and eight quarters for most currencies, which is not inconsistent with traditional price-stickiness explanations. However, the upper bounds are infinity for all currencies, so we cannot provide conclusive evidence in favor of PPP either. © 2005 American Statistical Association.

cAMP stimulates transcription of the beta 2-adrenergic receptor gene in response to short-term agonist exposure.

In addition to conveying cellular responses to an effector molecule, receptors are often themselves regulated by their effectors. We have demonstrated that epinephrine modulates both the rate of transcription of the beta 2-adrenergic receptor (beta 2AR) gene and the steady-state level of beta 2AR mRNA in DDT1MF-2 cells. Short-term (30 min) exposure to epinephrine (100 nM) stimulates the rate of beta 2AR gene transcription, resulting in a 3- to 4-fold increase in steady-state beta 2AR mRNA levels. These effects are mimicked by 1 mM N6,O2'-dibutyryladenosine 3',5'-cyclic monophosphate (Bt2cAMP) or foskolin but not by phorbol esters. The half-life of the beta 2AR mRNA after addition of actinomycin D (46.7 +/- 10.2 min; mean +/- SEM; n = 5) remained unchanged after 30 min of epinephrine treatment (46.8 +/- 10.6 min; mean +/- SEM; n = 4), indicating that a change in transcription rate is the predominant factor responsible for the increase of beta 2AR mRNA. Whereas brief exposure to epinephrine or Bt2cAMP does not significantly affect the total number of cellular beta 2ARs (assessed by ligand binding), continued exposure results in a gradual decline in beta 2AR number to approximately 20% (epinephrine) or approximately 45% (Bt2cAMP) of the levels in control cells by 24 hr. Similar decreases in agonist-stimulated adenylyl cyclase activity are observed. This loss of receptors with prolonged agonist exposure is accompanied by a 50% reduction in beta 2AR mRNA. Transfection of the beta 2AR promoter region cloned onto a reporter gene (bacterial chloramphenicol acetyltransferase) allowed demonstration of a 2- to 4-fold induction of transcription by agents that elevate cAMP levels, such as forskolin or phosphodiesterase inhibitors. These results establish the presence of elements within the proximal promoter region of the beta 2AR gene responsible for the transcriptional enhancing activity of cAMP and demonstrate that beta 2AR gene expression is regulated by a type of feedback mechanism involving the second messenger cAMP.

Mechanistic Models of Anti-HIV Microbicide Drug Delivery

A new modality for preventing HIV transmission is emerging in the form of topical microbicides. Some clinical trials have shown some promising results of these methods of protection while other trials have failed to show efficacy. Due to the relatively novel nature of microbicide drug transport, a rigorous, deterministic analysis of that transport can help improve the design of microbicide vehicles and understand results from clinical trials. This type of analysis can aid microbicide product design by helping understand and organize the determinants of drug transport and the potential efficacies of candidate microbicide products.

Microbicide drug transport is modeled as a diffusion process with convection and reaction effects in appropriate compartments. This is applied here to vaginal gels and rings and a rectal enema, all delivering the microbicide drug Tenofovir. Although the focus here is on Tenofovir, the methods established in this dissertation can readily be adapted to other drugs, given knowledge of their physical and chemical properties, such as the diffusion coefficient, partition coefficient, and reaction kinetics. Other dosage forms such as tablets and fiber meshes can also be modeled using the perspective and methods developed here.

The analyses here include convective details of intravaginal flows by both ambient fluid and spreading gels with different rheological properties and applied volumes. These are input to the overall conservation equations for drug mass transport in different compartments. The results are Tenofovir concentration distributions in time and space for a variety of microbicide products and conditions. The Tenofovir concentrations in the vaginal and rectal mucosal stroma are converted, via a coupled reaction equation, to concentrations of Tenofovir diphosphate, which is the active form of the drug that functions as a reverse transcriptase inhibitor against HIV. Key model outputs are related to concentrations measured in experimental pharmacokinetic (PK) studies, e.g. concentrations in biopsies and blood. A new measure of microbicide prophylactic functionality, the Percent Protected, is calculated. This is the time dependent volume of the entire stroma (and thus fraction of host cells therein) in which Tenofovir diphosphate concentrations equal or exceed a target prophylactic value, e.g. an EC50.

Results show the prophylactic potentials of the studied microbicide vehicles against HIV infections. Key design parameters for each are addressed in application of the models. For a vaginal gel, fast spreading at small volume is more effective than slower spreading at high volume. Vaginal rings are shown to be most effective if inserted and retained as close to the fornix as possible. Because of the long half-life of Tenofovir diphosphate, temporary removal of the vaginal ring (after achieving steady state) for up to 24h does not appreciably diminish Percent Protected. However, full steady state (for the entire stromal volume) is not achieved until several days after ring insertion. Delivery of Tenofovir to the rectal mucosa by an enema is dominated by surface area of coated mucosa and whether the interiors of rectal crypts are filled with the enema fluid. For the enema 100% Percent Protected is achieved much more rapidly than for vaginal products, primarily because of the much thinner epithelial layer of the mucosa. For example, 100% Percent Protected can be achieved with a one minute enema application, and 15 minute wait time.

Results of these models have good agreement with experimental pharmacokinetic data, in animals and clinical trials. They also improve upon traditional, empirical PK modeling, and this is illustrated here. Our deterministic approach can inform design of sampling in clinical trials by indicating time periods during which significant changes in drug concentrations occur in different compartments. More fundamentally, the work here helps delineate the determinants of microbicide drug delivery. This information can be the key to improved, rational design of microbicide products and their dosage regimens.

Young caregivers in the end-of-life setting: a population-based profile of an emerging group.

PURPOSE: Little is known about young caregivers of people with advanced life-limiting illness. Better understanding of the needs and characteristics of these young caregivers can inform development of palliative care and other support services. METHODS: A population-based analysis of caregivers was performed from piloted questions included in the 2001-2007 face-to-face annual health surveys of 23,706 South Australians on the death of a loved one, caregiving provided, and characteristics of the deceased individual and caregiver. The survey was representative of the population by age, gender, and region of residence. FINDINGS: Most active care was provided by older, close family members, but large numbers of young people (ages 15-29) also provided assistance to individuals with advanced life-limiting illness. They comprised 14.4% of those undertaking "hands-on" care on a daily or intermittent basis, whom we grouped together as active caregivers. Almost as many young males as females participate in active caregiving (men represent 46%); most provide care while being employed, including 38% who work full-time. Over half of those engaged in hands-on care indicated the experience to be worse or much worse than expected, with young people more frequently reporting dissatisfaction thereof. Young caregivers also exhibited an increased perception of the need for assistance with grief. CONCLUSION: Young people can be integral to end-of-life care, and represent a significant cohort of active caregivers with unique needs and experiences. They may have a more negative experience as caregivers, and increased needs for grief counseling services compared to other age cohorts of caregivers.