Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics

Recent empirical findings suggest that the long-run dependence in U.S. stock market volatility is best described by a slowly mean-reverting fractionally integrated process. The present study complements this existing time-series-based evidence by comparing the risk-neutralized option pricing distributions from various ARCH-type formulations. Utilizing a panel data set consisting of newly created exchange traded long-term equity anticipation securities, or leaps, on the Standard and Poor's 500 stock market index with maturity times ranging up to three years, we find that the degree of mean reversion in the volatility process implicit in these prices is best described by a Fractionally Integrated EGARCH (FIEGARCH) model. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Can prospect theory explain risk-seeking behavior by terminally ill patients?

Patients with life-threatening conditions sometimes appear to make risky treatment decisions as their condition declines, contradicting the risk-averse behavior predicted by expected utility theory. Prospect theory accommodates such decisions by describing how individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and how they exhibit risk-seeking behavior over losses relative to that point. The authors show that a patient's reference point for his or her health is a key factor in determining which treatment option the patient selects, and they examine under what circumstances the more risky option is selected. The authors argue that patients' reference points may take time to adjust following a change in diagnosis, with implications for predicting under what circumstances a patient may select experimental or conventional therapies or select no treatment.

A cross-site, comparative effectiveness study of an integrated HIV and substance use treatment program.

Co-occurrence of HIV and substance abuse is associated with poor outcomes for HIV-related health and substance use. Integration of substance use and medical care holds promise for HIV patients, yet few integrated treatment models have been reported. Most of the reported models lack data on treatment outcomes in diverse settings. This study examined the substance use outcomes of an integrated treatment model for patients with both HIV and substance use at three different clinics. Sites differed by type and degree of integration, with one integrated academic medical center, one co-located academic medical center, and one co-located community health center. Participants (n=286) received integrated substance use and HIV treatment for 12 months and were interviewed at 6-month intervals. We used linear generalized estimating equation regression analysis to examine changes in Addiction Severity Index (ASI) alcohol and drug severity scores. To test whether our treatment was differentially effective across sites, we compared a full model including site by time point interaction terms to a reduced model including only site fixed effects. Alcohol severity scores decreased significantly at 6 and 12 months. Drug severity scores decreased significantly at 12 months. Once baseline severity variation was incorporated into the model, there was no evidence of variation in alcohol or drug score changes by site. Substance use outcomes did not differ by age, gender, income, or race. This integrated treatment model offers an option for treating diverse patients with HIV and substance use in a variety of clinic settings. Studies with control groups are needed to confirm these findings.

Contemporary results of focal therapy for prostate cancer using cryoablation.

The concept of focal therapy is rapidly evolving and gaining popularity from both physician and patient perspectives. We review the rationale, candidate selection, and results of the first clinical studies of focal cryoablation for selected patients with low volume and low- to low-moderate-risk features of prostate cancer as an alternative to whole-gland treatment. In spite of improved understanding of the tumor biology of early stage disease, we currently have limited tools to select appropriate patients with low- to low-moderate risk unifocal or unilateral prostate cancer who may be amenable to focal therapy. From a technical point, a number of ablative treatment options for focal therapy are available, with cryoablation having the most clinical experience. Recently, several reports have been published from single and multi-institutional studies that discuss focal therapy as a reasonable balance between cancer control and quality-of-life outcomes. Retrospective pathologic data from large prostatectomy series, however, do not clearly reveal valid and reproducible criteria to select appropriate candidates for focal cryoablation because of the complexity of tumorigenesis in early stage disease. At this time, a more feasible option remains hemiablation of the prostate with reasonable certainty about the absence of clinically significant cancer lesion(s) on the contralateral side of the prostate based on three-dimensional transperineal prostate biopsy mapping studies. Minimally invasive, parenchyma-preserving cryoablation can be considered as a potential feasible option in the treatment armamentarium of early stage, localized prostate cancer in appropriately selected candidates. There is a need to further test this technique in randomized, multicenter clinical trials.

Analysis of educational materials and destruction/opt-out initiatives for storage and use of residual newborn screening samples.

In recent years, the storage and use of residual newborn screening (NBS) samples has gained attention. To inform ongoing policy discussions, this article provides an update of previous work on new policies, educational materials, and parental options regarding the storage and use of residual NBS samples. A review of state NBS Web sites was conducted for information related to the storage and use of residual NBS samples in January 2010. In addition, a review of current statutes and bills introduced between 2005 and 2009 regarding storage and/or use of residual NBS samples was conducted. Fourteen states currently provide information about the storage and/or use of residual NBS samples. Nine states provide parents the option to request destruction of the residual NBS sample after the required storage period or the option to exclude the sample for research uses. In the coming years, it is anticipated that more states will consider policies to address parental concerns about the storage and use of residual NBS samples. Development of new policies regarding storage and use of residual NBS samples will require careful consideration of impact on NBS programs, parent and provider educational materials, and respect for parents among other issues.

Cost of wind energy: comparing distant wind resources to local resources in the midwestern United States.

The best wind sites in the United States are often located far from electricity demand centers and lack transmission access. Local sites that have lower quality wind resources but do not require as much power transmission capacity are an alternative to distant wind resources. In this paper, we explore the trade-offs between developing new wind generation at local sites and installing wind farms at remote sites. We first examine the general relationship between the high capital costs required for local wind development and the relatively lower capital costs required to install a wind farm capable of generating the same electrical output at a remote site,with the results representing the maximum amount an investor should be willing to pay for transmission access. We suggest that this analysis can be used as a first step in comparing potential wind resources to meet a state renewable portfolio standard (RPS). To illustrate, we compare the cost of local wind (∼50 km from the load) to the cost of distant wind requiring new transmission (∼550-750 km from the load) to meet the Illinois RPS. We find that local, lower capacity factor wind sites are the lowest cost option for meeting the Illinois RPS if new long distance transmission is required to access distant, higher capacity factor wind resources. If higher capacity wind sites can be connected to the existing grid at minimal cost, in many cases they will have lower costs.

Latent Stick-Breaking Processes.

We develop a model for stochastic processes with random marginal distributions. Our model relies on a stick-breaking construction for the marginal distribution of the process, and introduces dependence across locations by using a latent Gaussian copula model as the mechanism for selecting the atoms. The resulting latent stick-breaking process (LaSBP) induces a random partition of the index space, with points closer in space having a higher probability of being in the same cluster. We develop an efficient and straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for computation and discuss applications in financial econometrics and ecology. This article has supplementary material online.

beta-Arrestin1 mediates nicotinic acid-induced flushing, but not its antilipolytic effect, in mice.

Nicotinic acid is one of the most effective agents for both lowering triglycerides and raising HDL. However, the side effect of cutaneous flushing severely limits patient compliance. As nicotinic acid stimulates the GPCR GPR109A and Gi/Go proteins, here we dissected the roles of G proteins and the adaptor proteins, beta-arrestins, in nicotinic acid-induced signaling and physiological responses. In a human cell line-based signaling assay, nicotinic acid stimulation led to pertussis toxin-sensitive lowering of cAMP, recruitment of beta-arrestins to the cell membrane, an activating conformational change in beta-arrestin, and beta-arrestin-dependent signaling to ERK MAPK. In addition, we found that nicotinic acid promoted the binding of beta-arrestin1 to activated cytosolic phospholipase A2 as well as beta-arrestin1-dependent activation of cytosolic phospholipase A2 and release of arachidonate, the precursor of prostaglandin D2 and the vasodilator responsible for the flushing response. Moreover, beta-arrestin1-null mice displayed reduced cutaneous flushing in response to nicotinic acid, although the improvement in serum free fatty acid levels was similar to that observed in wild-type mice. These data suggest that the adverse side effect of cutaneous flushing is mediated by beta-arrestin1, but lowering of serum free fatty acid levels is not. Furthermore, G protein-biased ligands that activate GPR109A in a beta-arrestin-independent fashion may represent an improved therapeutic option for the treatment of dyslipidemia.

Human dimensions of bycatch reduction technology: Current assumptions and directions for future research

Bycatch reduction technology (BRT) modifies fishing gear to increase selectivity and avoid capture of non-target species, or to facilitate their non-lethal release. As a solution to fisheries-related mortality of non-target species, BRT is an attractive option; effectively implemented, BRT presents a technical 'fix' that can reduce pressure for politically contentious and economically detrimental interventions, such as fisheries closures. While a number of factors might contribute to effective implementation, our review of BRT literature finds that research has focused on technical design and experimental performance of individual technologies. In contrast, and with a few notable exceptions, research on the human and institutional context of BRT, and more specifically on how fishers respond to BRT, is limited. This is not to say that fisher attitudes are ignored or overlooked, but that incentives for fisher uptake of BRT are usually assumed rather than assessed or demonstrated. Three assumptions about fisher incentives dominate: (1) economic incentives will generate acceptance of BRT; (2) enforcement will generate compliance with BRT; and (3) 'participation' by fishers will increase acceptance and compliance, and overall support for BRT. In this paper, we explore evidence for and against these assumptions and situate our analysis in the wider social science literature on fisheries. Our goal is to highlight the need and suggest focal areas for further research. © Inter-Research 2008.

Decision making across social contexts: Competition increases preferences for risk in chimpanzees and bonobos

Context can have a powerful influence on decision-making strategies in humans. In particular, people sometimes shift their economic preferences depending on the broader social context, such as the presence of potential competitors or mating partners. Despite the important role of competition in primate conspecific interactions, as well as evidence that competitive social contexts impact primates' social cognitive skills, there has been little study of how social context influences the strategies that nonhumans show when making decisions about the value of resources. Here we investigate the impact of social context on preferences for risk (variability in payoffs) in our two closest phylogenetic relatives, chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes, and bonobos, Pan paniscus. In a first study, we examine the impact of competition on patterns of risky choice. In a second study, we examine whether a positive play context affects risky choices. We find that (1) apes are more likely to choose the risky option when making decisions in a competitive context; and (2) the play context did not influence their risk preferences. Overall these results suggest that some types of social contexts can shift patterns of decision making in nonhuman apes, much like in humans. Comparative studies of chimpanzees and bonobos can therefore help illuminate the evolutionary processes shaping human economic behaviour. © 2012 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Chimpanzees and bonobos distinguish between risk and ambiguity.

Although recent research has investigated animal decision-making under risk, little is known about how animals choose under conditions of ambiguity when they lack information about the available alternatives. Many models of choice behaviour assume that ambiguity does not impact decision-makers, but studies of humans suggest that people tend to be more averse to choosing ambiguous options than risky options with known probabilities. To illuminate the evolutionary roots of human economic behaviour, we examined whether our closest living relatives, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus), share this bias against ambiguity. Apes chose between a certain option that reliably provided an intermediately preferred food type, and a variable option that could vary in the probability that it provided a highly preferred food type. To examine the impact of ambiguity on ape decision-making, we interspersed trials in which chimpanzees and bonobos had no knowledge about the probabilities. Both species avoided the ambiguous option compared with their choices for a risky option, indicating that ambiguity aversion is shared by humans, bonobos and chimpanzees.

Integrated vector management for malaria control in Uganda: knowledge, perceptions and policy development.

BACKGROUND: Integrated vector management (IVM) is increasingly being recommended as an option for sustainable malaria control. However, many malaria-endemic countries lack a policy framework to guide and promote the approach. The objective of the study was to assess knowledge and perceptions in relation to current malaria vector control policy and IVM in Uganda, and to make recommendations for consideration during future development of a specific IVM policy. METHODS: The study used a structured questionnaire to interview 34 individuals working at technical or policy-making levels in health, environment, agriculture and fisheries sectors. Specific questions on IVM focused on the following key elements of the approach: integration of chemical and non-chemical interventions of vector control; evidence-based decision making; inter-sectoral collaboration; capacity building; legislation; advocacy and community mobilization. RESULTS: All participants were familiar with the term IVM and knew various conventional malaria vector control (MVC) methods. Only 75% thought that Uganda had a MVC policy. Eighty percent (80%) felt there was inter-sectoral collaboration towards IVM, but that it was poor due to financial constraints, difficulties in involving all possible sectors and political differences. The health, environment and agricultural sectors were cited as key areas requiring cooperation in order for IVM to succeed. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of participants responded that communities were actively being involved in MVC, while 48% felt that the use of research results for evidence-based decision making was inadequate or poor. A majority of the participants felt that malaria research in Uganda was rarely used to facilitate policy changes. Suggestions by participants for formulation of specific and effective IVM policy included: revising the MVC policy and IVM-related policies in other sectors into a single, unified IVM policy and, using legislation to enforce IVM in development projects. CONCLUSION: Integrated management of malaria vectors in Uganda remains an underdeveloped component of malaria control policy. Cooperation between the health and other sectors needs strengthening and funding for MVC increased in order to develop and effectively implement an appropriate IVM policy. Continuous engagement of communities by government as well as monitoring and evaluation of vector control programmes will be crucial for sustaining IVM in the country.

Mergers, Acquisitions, and Alliances

© 2012 by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.This article considers the determinants and effects of M&As in the pharmaceutical industry, with a particular focus on innovation and R&D productivity. As is the case in other industries, mergers in the pharmaceutical field are driven by a variety of company motives and conditions. These include defensive responses to industry shocks as well as more proactive rationales, such as economies of scale and scope, access to new technologies, and expansion to new markets. It is important to take account of firms' characteristics and motivations in evaluating merger performance, rather than using a broad aggregate brushstroke. Research to date on pharmaceuticals suggests considerable variation in both motivation and outcomes. From an antitrust policy standpoint, the larger horizontal mergers in pharmaceuticals have run into few challenges from regulatory authorities in the United States and the European Union, given the option to spin off competing therapeutic products to other drug firms.

A fruit in the hand or two in the bush? Divergent risk preferences in chimpanzees and bonobos.

Human and non-human animals tend to avoid risky prospects. If such patterns of economic choice are adaptive, risk preferences should reflect the typical decision-making environments faced by organisms. However, this approach has not been widely used to examine the risk sensitivity in closely related species with different ecologies. Here, we experimentally examined risk-sensitive behaviour in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus), closely related species whose distinct ecologies are thought to be the major selective force shaping their unique behavioural repertoires. Because chimpanzees exploit riskier food sources in the wild, we predicted that they would exhibit greater tolerance for risk in choices about food. Results confirmed this prediction: chimpanzees significantly preferred the risky option, whereas bonobos preferred the fixed option. These results provide a relatively rare example of risk-prone behaviour in the context of gains and show how ecological pressures can sculpt economic decision making.

Development of a decision aid to inform patients' and families' renal replacement therapy selection decisions.

BACKGROUND: Few educational resources have been developed to inform patients' renal replacement therapy (RRT) selection decisions. Patients progressing toward end stage renal disease (ESRD) must decide among multiple treatment options with varying characteristics. Complex information about treatments must be adequately conveyed to patients with different educational backgrounds and informational needs. Decisions about treatment options also require family input, as families often participate in patients' treatment and support patients' decisions. We describe the development, design, and preliminary evaluation of an informational, evidence-based, and patient-and family-centered decision aid for patients with ESRD and varying levels of health literacy, health numeracy, and cognitive function. METHODS: We designed a decision aid comprising a complementary video and informational handbook. We based our development process on data previously obtained from qualitative focus groups and systematic literature reviews. We simultaneously developed the video and handbook in "stages." For the video, stages included (1) directed interviews with culturally appropriate patients and families and preliminary script development, (2) video production, and (3) screening the video with patients and their families. For the handbook, stages comprised (1) preliminary content design, (2) a mixed-methods pilot study among diverse patients to assess comprehension of handbook material, and (3) screening the handbook with patients and their families. RESULTS: The video and handbook both addressed potential benefits and trade-offs of treatment selections. The 50-minute video consisted of demographically diverse patients and their families describing their positive and negative experiences with selecting a treatment option. The video also incorporated health professionals' testimonials regarding various considerations that might influence patients' and families' treatment selections. The handbook was comprised of written words, pictures of patients and health care providers, and diagrams describing the findings and quality of scientific studies comparing treatments. The handbook text was written at a 4th to 6th grade reading level. Pilot study results demonstrated that a majority of patients could understand information presented in the handbook. Patient and families screening the nearly completed video and handbook reviewed the materials favorably. CONCLUSIONS: This rigorously designed decision aid may help patients and families make informed decisions about their treatment options for RRT that are well aligned with their values.