Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into Miyun Reservoir,Beijing, China

The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different sub-periods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p  <  0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p  <  0.01), and an insignificant (p  >  0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961–2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann–Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.

Coordinated analysis of delayed sprites with high-speed images and remote electromagnetic fields

Simultaneous measurements of high-altitude optical emissions and magnetic fields produced by sprite-associated lightning discharges enable a close examination of the link between low-altitude lightning processes and high-altitude sprite processes. We report results of the coordinated analysis of high-speed sprite video and wideband magnetic field measurements recorded simultaneously at Yucca Ridge Field Station and Duke University. From June to August 2005, sprites were detected following 67 lightning strokes, all of which had positive polarity. Our data showed that 46% of the 83 discrete sprite events in these sequences initiated more than 10 ms after the lightning return stroke, and we focus on these delayed sprites in this work. All delayed sprites were preceded by continuing current moments that averaged at least 11 kA km between the return stroke and sprites. The total lightning charge moment change at sprite initiation varied from 600 to 18,600 C km, and the minimum value to initiate long-delayed sprites ranged from 600 for 15 ms delay to 2000 C km for more than 120 ms delay. We numerically simulated electric fields at altitudes above these lightning discharges and found that the maximum normalized electric fields are essentially the same as fields that produce short-delayed sprites. Both estimated and simulation-predicted sprite initiation altitudes indicate that long-delayed sprites generally initiate around 5 km lower than short-delayed sprites. The simulation results also reveal that slow (5-20 ms) intensifications in continuing current can play a major role in initiating delayed sprites. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.