Advances in Dynamic Modeling and Computation for Count Data

A class of multi-process models is developed for collections of time indexed count data. Autocorrelation in counts is achieved with dynamic models for the natural parameter of the binomial distribution. In addition to modeling binomial time series, the framework includes dynamic models for multinomial and Poisson time series. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Po ́lya-Gamma data augmentation (Polson et al., 2013) are critical for fitting multi-process models of counts. To facilitate computation when the counts are high, a Gaussian approximation to the P ́olya- Gamma random variable is developed.

Three applied analyses are presented to explore the utility and versatility of the framework. The first analysis develops a model for complex dynamic behavior of themes in collections of text documents. Documents are modeled as a “bag of words”, and the multinomial distribution is used to characterize uncertainty in the vocabulary terms appearing in each document. State-space models for the natural parameters of the multinomial distribution induce autocorrelation in themes and their proportional representation in the corpus over time.

The second analysis develops a dynamic mixed membership model for Poisson counts. The model is applied to a collection of time series which record neuron level firing patterns in rhesus monkeys. The monkey is exposed to two sounds simultaneously, and Gaussian processes are used to smoothly model the time-varying rate at which the neuron’s firing pattern fluctuates between features associated with each sound in isolation.

The third analysis presents a switching dynamic generalized linear model for the time-varying home run totals of professional baseball players. The model endows each player with an age specific latent natural ability class and a performance enhancing drug (PED) use indicator. As players age, they randomly transition through a sequence of ability classes in a manner consistent with traditional aging patterns. When the performance of the player significantly deviates from the expected aging pattern, he is identified as a player whose performance is consistent with PED use.

All three models provide a mechanism for sharing information across related series locally in time. The models are fit with variations on the P ́olya-Gamma Gibbs sampler, MCMC convergence diagnostics are developed, and reproducible inference is emphasized throughout the dissertation.

Wear and its effects on dental topography measures in howling monkeys (Alouatta palliata).

OBJECTIVES: Three dental topography measurements: Dirichlet Normal Energy (DNE), Relief Index (RFI), and Orientation Patch Count Rotated (OPCR) are examined for their interaction with measures of wear, within and between upper and lower molars in Alouatta palliata. Potential inferences of the "dental sculpting" phenomenon are explored. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifteen occluding pairs of howling monkey first molars (15 upper, 15 lower) opportunistically collected from La Pacifica, Costa Rica, were selected to sample wear stages ranging from unworn to heavily worn as measured by the Dentine Exposure Ratio (DER). DNE, RFI, and OPCR were measured from three-dimensional surface reconstructions (PLY files) derived from high-resolution CT scans. Relationships among the variables were tested with regression analyses. RESULTS: Upper molars have more cutting edges, exhibiting significantly higher DNE, but have significantly lower RFI values. However, the relationships among the measures are concordant across both sets of molars. DER and EDJL are curvilinearly related. DER is positively correlated with DNE, negatively correlated with RFI, and uncorrelated with OPCR. EDJL is not correlated with DNE, or RFI, but is positively correlated with OPCR among lower molars only. DISCUSSION: The relationships among these metrics suggest that howling monkey teeth adaptively engage macrowear. DNE increases with wear in this sample presumably improving food breakdown. RFI is initially high but declines with wear, suggesting that the initially high RFI safeguards against dental senescence. OPCR values in howling monkey teeth do not show a clear relationship with wear changes.