Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

In vivo visualization of abdominal malignancies with acoustic radiation force elastography.

The utility of acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI) imaging for real-time visualization of abdominal malignancies was investigated. Nine patients presenting with suspicious masses in the liver (n = 7) or kidney (n = 2) underwent combined sonography/ARFI imaging. Images were acquired of a total of 12 tumors in the nine patients. In all cases, boundary definition in ARFI images was improved or equivalent to boundary definition in B-mode images. Displacement contrast in ARFI images was superior to echo contrast in B-mode images for each tumor. The mean contrast for suspected hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) in B-mode images was 2.9 dB (range: 1.5-4.2) versus 7.5 dB (range: 3.1-11.9) in ARFI images, with all HCCs appearing more compliant than regional cirrhotic liver parenchyma. The mean contrast for metastases in B-mode images was 3.1 dB (range: 1.2-5.2) versus 9.3 dB (range: 5.7-13.9) in ARFI images, with all masses appearing less compliant than regional non-cirrhotic liver parenchyma. ARFI image contrast (10.4 dB) was superior to B-mode contrast (0.9 dB) for a renal mass. To our knowledge, we present the first in vivo images of abdominal malignancies in humans acquired with the ARFI method or any other technique of imaging tissue elasticity.

Enhancing the Visualization of the Peripheral Retina with Wide Field-of-View Optical Coherence Tomography

The goal of my Ph.D. thesis is to enhance the visualization of the peripheral retina using wide-field optical coherence tomography (OCT) in a clinical setting.

OCT has gain widespread adoption in clinical ophthalmology due to its ability to visualize the diseases of the macula and central retina in three-dimensions, however, clinical OCT has a limited field-of-view of 300. There has been increasing interest to obtain high-resolution images outside of this narrow field-of-view, because three-dimensional imaging of the peripheral retina may prove to be important in the early detection of neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's and dementia, and the monitoring of known ocular diseases, such as diabetic retinopathy, retinal vein occlusions, and choroid masses.

Before attempting to build a wide-field OCT system, we need to better understand the peripheral optics of the human eye. Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensors are commonly used tools for measuring the optical imperfections of the eye, but their acquisition speed is limited by their underlying camera hardware. The first aim of my thesis research is to create a fast method of ocular wavefront sensing such that we can measure the wavefront aberrations at numerous points across a wide visual field. In order to address aim one, we will develop a sparse Zernike reconstruction technique (SPARZER) that will enable Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensors to use as little as 1/10th of the data that would normally be required for an accurate wavefront reading. If less data needs to be acquired, then we can increase the speed at which wavefronts can be recorded.

For my second aim, we will create a sophisticated optical model that reproduces the measured aberrations of the human eye. If we know how the average eye's optics distort light, then we can engineer ophthalmic imaging systems that preemptively cancel inherent ocular aberrations. This invention will help the retinal imaging community to design systems that are capable of acquiring high resolution images across a wide visual field. The proposed model eye is also of interest to the field of vision science as it aids in the study of how anatomy affects visual performance in the peripheral retina.

Using the optical model from aim two, we will design and reduce to practice a clinical OCT system that is capable of imaging a large (800) field-of-view with enhanced visualization of the peripheral retina. A key aspect of this third and final aim is to make the imaging system compatible with standard clinical practices. To this end, we will incorporate sensorless adaptive optics in order to correct the inter- and intra- patient variability in ophthalmic aberrations. Sensorless adaptive optics will improve both the brightness (signal) and clarity (resolution) of features in the peripheral retina without affecting the size of the imaging system.

The proposed work should not only be a noteworthy contribution to the ophthalmic and engineering communities, but it should strengthen our existing collaborations with the Duke Eye Center by advancing their capability to diagnose pathologies of the peripheral retinal.

A Comparative Review of Computational Methods as Applied to Gold(I) Complexes and Mechanisms

In the last two decades, the field of homogeneous gold catalysis has been

extremely active, growing at a rapid pace. Another rapidly-growing field—that of

computational chemistry—has often been applied to the investigation of various gold-

catalyzed reaction mechanisms. Unfortunately, a number of recent mechanistic studies

have utilized computational methods that have been shown to be inappropriate and

inaccurate in their description of gold chemistry. This work presents an overview of

available computational methods with a focus on the approximations and limitations

inherent in each, and offers a review of experimentally-characterized gold(I) complexes

and proposed mechanisms as compared with their computationally-modeled

counterparts. No aim is made to identify a “recommended” computational method for

investigations of gold catalysis; rather, discrepancies between experimentally and

computationally obtained values are highlighted, and the systematic errors between

different computational methods are discussed.

Application of Numerical Methods to Study Arrangement and Fracture of Lithium-Ion Microstructure

The focus of this work is to develop and employ numerical methods that provide characterization of granular microstructures, dynamic fragmentation of brittle materials, and dynamic fracture of three-dimensional bodies.

We first propose the fabric tensor formalism to describe the structure and evolution of lithium-ion electrode microstructure during the calendaring process. Fabric tensors are directional measures of particulate assemblies based on inter-particle connectivity, relating to the structural and transport properties of the electrode. Applying this technique to X-ray computed tomography of cathode microstructure, we show that fabric tensors capture the evolution of the inter-particle contact distribution and are therefore good measures for the internal state of and electronic transport within the electrode.

We then shift focus to the development and analysis of fracture models within finite element simulations. A difficult problem to characterize in the realm of fracture modeling is that of fragmentation, wherein brittle materials subjected to a uniform tensile loading break apart into a large number of smaller pieces. We explore the effect of numerical precision in the results of dynamic fragmentation simulations using the cohesive element approach on a one-dimensional domain. By introducing random and non-random field variations, we discern that round-off error plays a significant role in establishing a mesh-convergent solution for uniform fragmentation problems. Further, by using differing magnitudes of randomized material properties and mesh discretizations, we find that employing randomness can improve convergence behavior and provide a computational savings.

The Thick Level-Set model is implemented to describe brittle media undergoing dynamic fragmentation as an alternative to the cohesive element approach. This non-local damage model features a level-set function that defines the extent and severity of degradation and uses a length scale to limit the damage gradient. In terms of energy dissipated by fracture and mean fragment size, we find that the proposed model reproduces the rate-dependent observations of analytical approaches, cohesive element simulations, and experimental studies.

Lastly, the Thick Level-Set model is implemented in three dimensions to describe the dynamic failure of brittle media, such as the active material particles in the battery cathode during manufacturing. The proposed model matches expected behavior from physical experiments, analytical approaches, and numerical models, and mesh convergence is established. We find that the use of an asymmetrical damage model to represent tensile damage is important to producing the expected results for brittle fracture problems.

The impact of this work is that designers of lithium-ion battery components can employ the numerical methods presented herein to analyze the evolving electrode microstructure during manufacturing, operational, and extraordinary loadings. This allows for enhanced designs and manufacturing methods that advance the state of battery technology. Further, these numerical tools have applicability in a broad range of fields, from geotechnical analysis to ice-sheet modeling to armor design to hydraulic fracturing.

Comparison of pattern detection methods in microarray time series of the segmentation clock.

While genome-wide gene expression data are generated at an increasing rate, the repertoire of approaches for pattern discovery in these data is still limited. Identifying subtle patterns of interest in large amounts of data (tens of thousands of profiles) associated with a certain level of noise remains a challenge. A microarray time series was recently generated to study the transcriptional program of the mouse segmentation clock, a biological oscillator associated with the periodic formation of the segments of the body axis. A method related to Fourier analysis, the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, was used to detect periodic profiles in the dataset, leading to the identification of a novel set of cyclic genes associated with the segmentation clock. Here, we applied to the same microarray time series dataset four distinct mathematical methods to identify significant patterns in gene expression profiles. These methods are called: Phase consistency, Address reduction, Cyclohedron test and Stable persistence, and are based on different conceptual frameworks that are either hypothesis- or data-driven. Some of the methods, unlike Fourier transforms, are not dependent on the assumption of periodicity of the pattern of interest. Remarkably, these methods identified blindly the expression profiles of known cyclic genes as the most significant patterns in the dataset. Many candidate genes predicted by more than one approach appeared to be true positive cyclic genes and will be of particular interest for future research. In addition, these methods predicted novel candidate cyclic genes that were consistent with previous biological knowledge and experimental validation in mouse embryos. Our results demonstrate the utility of these novel pattern detection strategies, notably for detection of periodic profiles, and suggest that combining several distinct mathematical approaches to analyze microarray datasets is a valuable strategy for identifying genes that exhibit novel, interesting transcriptional patterns.

Localization of Metal Electrodes in the Intact Rat Brain Using Registration of 3D Microcomputed Tomography Images to a Magnetic Resonance Histology Atlas.

Simultaneous neural recordings taken from multiple areas of the rodent brain are garnering growing interest due to the insight they can provide about spatially distributed neural circuitry. The promise of such recordings has inspired great progress in methods for surgically implanting large numbers of metal electrodes into intact rodent brains. However, methods for localizing the precise location of these electrodes have remained severely lacking. Traditional histological techniques that require slicing and staining of physical brain tissue are cumbersome, and become increasingly impractical as the number of implanted electrodes increases. Here we solve these problems by describing a method that registers 3-D computerized tomography (CT) images of intact rat brains implanted with metal electrode bundles to a Magnetic Resonance Imaging Histology (MRH) Atlas. Our method allows accurate visualization of each electrode bundle's trajectory and location without removing the electrodes from the brain or surgically implanting external markers. In addition, unlike physical brain slices, once the 3D images of the electrode bundles and the MRH atlas are registered, it is possible to verify electrode placements from many angles by "re-slicing" the images along different planes of view. Further, our method can be fully automated and easily scaled to applications with large numbers of specimens. Our digital imaging approach to efficiently localizing metal electrodes offers a substantial addition to currently available methods, which, in turn, may help accelerate the rate at which insights are gleaned from rodent network neuroscience.

The impact of late career job loss on myocardial infarction and stroke: a 10 year follow up using the health and retirement survey.

BACKGROUND: Involuntary job loss is a major life event associated with social, economic, behavioural, and health outcomes, for which older workers are at elevated risk. OBJECTIVE: To assess the 10 year risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke associated with involuntary job loss among workers over 50 years of age. METHODS: Analysing data from the nationally representative US Health and Retirement Survey (HRS), Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to estimate whether workers who suffered involuntary job loss were at higher risk for subsequent MI and stroke than individuals who continued to work. The sample included 4301 individuals who were employed at the 1992 study baseline. RESULTS: Over the 10 year study frame, 582 individuals (13.5% of the sample) experienced involuntary job loss. After controlling for established predictors of the outcomes, displaced workers had a more than twofold increase in the risk of subsequent MI (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.48; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.49 to 4.14) and stroke (HR = 2.43; 95% CI = 1.18 to 4.98) relative to working persons. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that the true costs of late career unemployment exceed financial deprivation, and include substantial health consequences. Physicians who treat individuals who lose jobs as they near retirement should consider the loss of employment a potential risk factor for adverse vascular health changes. Policy makers and programme planners should also be aware of the risks of job loss, so that programmatic interventions can be designed and implemented to ease the multiple burdens of joblessness.

Contributions of Dorsal/Ventral Hippocampus and Dorsolateral/Dorsomedial Striatum to Interval Timing

Humans and animals have remarkable capabilities in keeping time and using time as a guide to orient their learning and decision making. Psychophysical models of timing and time perception have been proposed for decades and have received behavioral, anatomical and pharmacological data support. However, despite numerous studies that aimed at delineating the neural underpinnings of interval timing, a complete picture of the neurobiological network of timing in the seconds-to-minutes range remains elusive. Based on classical interval timing protocols and proposing a Timing, Immersive Memory and Emotional Regulation (TIMER) test battery, the author investigates the contributions of the dorsal and ventral hippocampus as well as the dorsolateral and the dorsomedial striatum to interval timing by comparing timing performances in mice after they received cytotoxic lesions in the corresponding brain regions. On the other hand, a timing-based theoretical framework for the emergence of conscious experience that is closely related to the function of the claustrum is proposed so as to serve both biological guidance and the research and evolution of “strong” artificial intelligence. Finally, a new “Double Saturation Model of Interval Timing” that integrates the direct- and indirect- pathways of striatum is proposed to explain the set of empirical findings.

Safety and Use of Anticoagulation After Aortic Valve Replacement With Bioprostheses: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The American College of Cardiology guidelines recommend 3 months of anticoagulation after replacement of the aortic valve with a bioprosthesis. However, there remains great variability in the current clinical practice and conflicting results from clinical studies. To assist clinical decision making, we pooled the existing evidence to assess whether anticoagulation in the setting of a new bioprosthesis was associated with improved outcomes or greater risk of bleeding. METHODS AND RESULTS: We searched the PubMed database from the inception of these databases until April 2015 to identify original studies (observational studies or clinical trials) that assessed anticoagulation with warfarin in comparison with either aspirin or no antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy. We included the studies if their outcomes included thromboembolism or stroke/transient ischemic attacks and bleeding events. Quality assessment was performed in accordance with the Newland Ottawa Scale, and random effects analysis was used to pool the data from the available studies. I(2) testing was done to assess the heterogeneity of the included studies. After screening through 170 articles, a total of 13 studies (cases=6431; controls=18210) were included in the final analyses. The use of warfarin was associated with a significantly increased risk of overall bleeding (odds ratio, 1.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-3.08; P<0.0001) or bleeding risk at 3 months (odds ratio, 1.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.10-3.34; P<0.0001) compared with aspirin or placebo. With regard to composite primary outcome variables (risk of venous thromboembolism, stroke, or transient ischemic attack) at 3 months, no significant difference was seen with warfarin (odds ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.56; P=0.67). Moreover, anticoagulation was also not shown to improve outcomes at time interval >3 months (odds ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-1.58; P=0.79). CONCLUSIONS: Contrary to the current guidelines, a meta-analysis of previous studies suggests that anticoagulation in the setting of an aortic bioprosthesis significantly increases bleeding risk without a favorable effect on thromboembolic events. Larger, randomized controlled studies should be performed to further guide this clinical practice.

Live volumetric (4D) visualization and guidance of in vivo human ophthalmic surgery with intraoperative optical coherence tomography.

Minimally-invasive microsurgery has resulted in improved outcomes for patients. However, operating through a microscope limits depth perception and fixes the visual perspective, which result in a steep learning curve to achieve microsurgical proficiency. We introduce a surgical imaging system employing four-dimensional (live volumetric imaging through time) microscope-integrated optical coherence tomography (4D MIOCT) capable of imaging at up to 10 volumes per second to visualize human microsurgery. A custom stereoscopic heads-up display provides real-time interactive volumetric feedback to the surgeon. We report that 4D MIOCT enhanced suturing accuracy and control of instrument positioning in mock surgical trials involving 17 ophthalmic surgeons. Additionally, 4D MIOCT imaging was performed in 48 human eye surgeries and was demonstrated to successfully visualize the pathology of interest in concordance with preoperative diagnosis in 93% of retinal surgeries and the surgical site of interest in 100% of anterior segment surgeries. In vivo 4D MIOCT imaging revealed sub-surface pathologic structures and instrument-induced lesions that were invisible through the operating microscope during standard surgical maneuvers. In select cases, 4D MIOCT guidance was necessary to resolve such lesions and prevent post-operative complications. Our novel surgical visualization platform achieves surgeon-interactive 4D visualization of live surgery which could expand the surgeon's capabilities.