Estimating stochastic volatility diffusion using conditional moments of integrated volatility

We exploit the distributional information contained in high-frequency intraday data in constructing a simple conditional moment estimator for stochastic volatility diffusions. The estimator is based on the analytical solutions of the first two conditional moments for the latent integrated volatility, the realization of which is effectively approximated by the sum of the squared high-frequency increments of the process. Our simulation evidence indicates that the resulting GMM estimator is highly reliable and accurate. Our empirical implementation based on high-frequency five-minute foreign exchange returns suggests the presence of multiple latent stochastic volatility factors and possible jumps. © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Similar T-cell immune responses induced by group M consensus env immunogens with wild-type or minimum consensus variable regions.

Consensus HIV-1 genes can decrease the genetic distances between candidate immunogens and field virus strains. To ensure the functionality and optimal presentation of immunologic epitopes, we generated two group-M consensus env genes that contain variable regions either from a wild-type B/C recombinant virus isolate (CON6) or minimal consensus elements (CON-S) in the V1, V2, V4, and V5 regions. C57BL/6 and BALB/c mice were primed twice with CON6, CON-S, and subtype control (92UG37_A and HXB2/Bal_B) DNA and boosted with recombinant vaccinia virus (rVV). Mean antibody titers against 92UG37_A, 89.6_B, 96ZM651_C, CON6, and CON-S Env protein were determined. Both CON6 and CON-S induced higher mean antibody titers against several of the proteins, as compared with the subtype controls. However, no significant differences were found in mean antibody titers in animals immunized with CON6 or CON-S. Cellular immune responses were measured by using five complete Env overlapping peptide sets: subtype A (92UG37_A), subtype B (MN_B, 89.6_B and SF162_B), and subtype C (Chn19_C). The intensity of the induced cellular responses was measured by using pooled Env peptides; T-cell epitopes were identified by using matrix peptide pools and individual peptides. No significant differences in T-cell immune-response intensities were noted between CON6 and CON-S immunized BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice. In BALB/c mice, 10 and eight nonoverlapping T-cell epitopes were identified in CON6 and CON-S, whereas eight epitopes were identified in 92UG37_A and HXB2/BAL_B. In C57BL/6 mice, nine and six nonoverlapping T-cell epitopes were identified after immunization with CON6 and CON-S, respectively, whereas only four and three were identified in 92UG37_A and HXB2/BAL_B, respectively. When combined together from both mouse strains, 18 epitopes were identified. The group M artificial consensus env genes, CON6 and CON-S, were equally immunogenic in breadth and intensity for inducing humoral and cellular immune responses.

The effect of hydrogen bonding on the diffusion of water in n-alkanes and n-alcohols measured with a novel single microdroplet method.

While the Stokes-Einstein (SE) equation predicts that the diffusion coefficient of a solute will be inversely proportional to the viscosity of the solvent, this relation is commonly known to fail for solutes, which are the same size or smaller than the solvent. Multiple researchers have reported that for small solutes, the diffusion coefficient is inversely proportional to the viscosity to a fractional power, and that solutes actually diffuse faster than SE predicts. For other solvent systems, attractive solute-solvent interactions, such as hydrogen bonding, are known to retard the diffusion of a solute. Some researchers have interpreted the slower diffusion due to hydrogen bonding as resulting from the effective diffusion of a larger complex of a solute and solvent molecules. We have developed and used a novel micropipette technique, which can form and hold a single microdroplet of water while it dissolves in a diffusion controlled environment into the solvent. This method has been used to examine the diffusion of water in both n-alkanes and n-alcohols. It was found that the polar solute water, diffusing in a solvent with which it cannot hydrogen bond, closely resembles small nonpolar solutes such as xenon and krypton diffusing in n-alkanes, with diffusion coefficients ranging from 12.5x10(-5) cm(2)/s for water in n-pentane to 1.15x10(-5) cm(2)/s for water in hexadecane. Diffusion coefficients were found to be inversely proportional to viscosity to a fractional power, and diffusion coefficients were faster than SE predicts. For water diffusing in a solvent (n-alcohols) with which it can hydrogen bond, diffusion coefficient values ranged from 1.75x10(-5) cm(2)/s in n-methanol to 0.364x10(-5) cm(2)/s in n-octanol, and diffusion was slower than an alkane of corresponding viscosity. We find no evidence for solute-solvent complex diffusion. Rather, it is possible that the small solute water may be retarded by relatively longer residence times (compared to non-H-bonding solvents) as it moves through the liquid.

Analysis of an asymptotic preserving scheme for linear kinetic equations in the diffusion limit

We present a mathematical analysis of the asymptotic preserving scheme proposed in [M. Lemou and L. Mieussens, SIAM J. Sci. Comput., 31 (2008), pp. 334-368] for linear transport equations in kinetic and diffusive regimes. We prove that the scheme is uniformly stable and accurate with respect to the mean free path of the particles. This property is satisfied under an explicitly given CFL condition. This condition tends to a parabolic CFL condition for small mean free paths and is close to a convection CFL condition for large mean free paths. Our analysis is based on very simple energy estimates. © 2010 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Bayesian variable selection in structured high-dimensional covariate spaces with applications in genomics

We consider the problem of variable selection in regression modeling in high-dimensional spaces where there is known structure among the covariates. This is an unconventional variable selection problem for two reasons: (1) The dimension of the covariate space is comparable, and often much larger, than the number of subjects in the study, and (2) the covariate space is highly structured, and in some cases it is desirable to incorporate this structural information in to the model building process. We approach this problem through the Bayesian variable selection framework, where we assume that the covariates lie on an undirected graph and formulate an Ising prior on the model space for incorporating structural information. Certain computational and statistical problems arise that are unique to such high-dimensional, structured settings, the most interesting being the phenomenon of phase transitions. We propose theoretical and computational schemes to mitigate these problems. We illustrate our methods on two different graph structures: the linear chain and the regular graph of degree k. Finally, we use our methods to study a specific application in genomics: the modeling of transcription factor binding sites in DNA sequences. © 2010 American Statistical Association.

Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

BOLD signal compartmentalization based on the apparent diffusion coefficient.

Functional MRI (fMRI) can detect blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) hemodynamic responses secondary to neuronal activity. The most commonly used method for detecting fMRI signals is the gradient-echo echo-planar imaging (EPI) technique because of its sensitivity and speed. However, it is generally believed that a significant portion of these signals arises from large veins, with additional contribution from the capillaries and parenchyma. Early experiments using diffusion-weighted gradient-echo EPI have suggested that intra-voxel incoherent motion (IVIM) weighting inherent in the sequence can selectively attenuate contributions from different vessels based on the differences in the mobility of the blood within them. In the present study, we used similar approach to characterize the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) distribution within the activated areas of BOLD contrast. It is shown that the voxel values of the ADCs obtained from this technique can infer various vascular contributions to the BOLD signal.

A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses.

Antigenically variable RNA viruses are significant contributors to the burden of infectious disease worldwide. One reason for their ubiquity is their ability to escape herd immunity through rapid antigenic evolution and thereby to reinfect previously infected hosts. However, the ways in which these viruses evolve antigenically are highly diverse. Some have only limited diversity in the long-run, with every emergence of a new antigenic variant coupled with a replacement of the older variant. Other viruses rapidly accumulate antigenic diversity over time. Others still exhibit dynamics that can be considered evolutionary intermediates between these two extremes. Here, we present a theoretical framework that aims to understand these differences in evolutionary patterns by considering a virus's epidemiological dynamics in a given host population. Our framework, based on a dimensionless number, probabilistically anticipates patterns of viral antigenic diversification and thereby quantifies a virus's evolutionary potential. It is therefore similar in spirit to the basic reproduction number, the well-known dimensionless number which quantifies a pathogen's reproductive potential. We further outline how our theoretical framework can be applied to empirical viral systems, using influenza A/H3N2 as a case study. We end with predictions of our framework and work that remains to be done to further integrate viral evolutionary dynamics with disease ecology.

Improved delineation of short cortical association fibers and gray/white matter boundary using whole-brain three-dimensional diffusion tensor imaging at submillimeter spatial resolution.

Recent emergence of human connectome imaging has led to a high demand on angular and spatial resolutions for diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). While there have been significant growths in high angular resolution diffusion imaging, the improvement in spatial resolution is still limited due to a number of technical challenges, such as the low signal-to-noise ratio and high motion artifacts. As a result, the benefit of a high spatial resolution in the whole-brain connectome imaging has not been fully evaluated in vivo. In this brief report, the impact of spatial resolution was assessed in a newly acquired whole-brain three-dimensional diffusion tensor imaging data set with an isotropic spatial resolution of 0.85 mm. It was found that the delineation of short cortical association fibers is drastically improved as well as the definition of fiber pathway endings into the gray/white matter boundary-both of which will help construct a more accurate structural map of the human brain connectome.

Local kinetic interpretation of entropy production through reversed diffusion.

The time reversal of stochastic diffusion processes is revisited with emphasis on the physical meaning of the time-reversed drift and the noise prescription in the case of multiplicative noise. The local kinematics and mechanics of free diffusion are linked to the hydrodynamic description. These properties also provide an interpretation of the Pope-Ching formula for the steady-state probability density function along with a geometric interpretation of the fluctuation-dissipation relation. Finally, the statistics of the local entropy production rate of diffusion are discussed in the light of local diffusion properties, and a stochastic differential equation for entropy production is obtained using the Girsanov theorem for reversed diffusion. The results are illustrated for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

A Diffusion MRI Tractography Connectome of the Mouse Brain and Comparison with Neuronal Tracer Data.

Interest in structural brain connectivity has grown with the understanding that abnormal neural connections may play a role in neurologic and psychiatric diseases. Small animal connectivity mapping techniques are particularly important for identifying aberrant connectivity in disease models. Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging tractography can provide nondestructive, 3D, brain-wide connectivity maps, but has historically been limited by low spatial resolution, low signal-to-noise ratio, and the difficulty in estimating multiple fiber orientations within a single image voxel. Small animal diffusion tractography can be substantially improved through the combination of ex vivo MRI with exogenous contrast agents, advanced diffusion acquisition and reconstruction techniques, and probabilistic fiber tracking. Here, we present a comprehensive, probabilistic tractography connectome of the mouse brain at microscopic resolution, and a comparison of these data with a neuronal tracer-based connectivity data from the Allen Brain Atlas. This work serves as a reference database for future tractography studies in the mouse brain, and demonstrates the fundamental differences between tractography and neuronal tracer data.

Correction for Eddy Current-Induced Echo-Shifting Effect in Partial-Fourier Diffusion Tensor Imaging.

In most diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) studies, images are acquired with either a partial-Fourier or a parallel partial-Fourier echo-planar imaging (EPI) sequence, in order to shorten the echo time and increase the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). However, eddy currents induced by the diffusion-sensitizing gradients can often lead to a shift of the echo in k-space, resulting in three distinct types of artifacts in partial-Fourier DTI. Here, we present an improved DTI acquisition and reconstruction scheme, capable of generating high-quality and high-SNR DTI data without eddy current-induced artifacts. This new scheme consists of three components, respectively, addressing the three distinct types of artifacts. First, a k-space energy-anchored DTI sequence is designed to recover eddy current-induced signal loss (i.e., Type 1 artifact). Second, a multischeme partial-Fourier reconstruction is used to eliminate artificial signal elevation (i.e., Type 2 artifact) associated with the conventional partial-Fourier reconstruction. Third, a signal intensity correction is applied to remove artificial signal modulations due to eddy current-induced erroneous T2(∗) -weighting (i.e., Type 3 artifact). These systematic improvements will greatly increase the consistency and accuracy of DTI measurements, expanding the utility of DTI in translational applications where quantitative robustness is much needed.