6 resultados para Trial and error

em Duke University


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The full-scale base-isolated structure studied in this dissertation is the only base-isolated building in South Island of New Zealand. It sustained hundreds of earthquake ground motions from September 2010 and well into 2012. Several large earthquake responses were recorded in December 2011 by NEES@UCLA and by GeoNet recording station nearby Christchurch Women's Hospital. The primary focus of this dissertation is to advance the state-of-the art of the methods to evaluate performance of seismic-isolated structures and the effects of soil-structure interaction by developing new data processing methodologies to overcome current limitations and by implementing advanced numerical modeling in OpenSees for direct analysis of soil-structure interaction.

This dissertation presents a novel method for recovering force-displacement relations within the isolators of building structures with unknown nonlinearities from sparse seismic-response measurements of floor accelerations. The method requires only direct matrix calculations (factorizations and multiplications); no iterative trial-and-error methods are required. The method requires a mass matrix, or at least an estimate of the floor masses. A stiffness matrix may be used, but is not necessary. Essentially, the method operates on a matrix of incomplete measurements of floor accelerations. In the special case of complete floor measurements of systems with linear dynamics, real modes, and equal floor masses, the principal components of this matrix are the modal responses. In the more general case of partial measurements and nonlinear dynamics, the method extracts a number of linearly-dependent components from Hankel matrices of measured horizontal response accelerations, assembles these components row-wise and extracts principal components from the singular value decomposition of this large matrix of linearly-dependent components. These principal components are then interpolated between floors in a way that minimizes the curvature energy of the interpolation. This interpolation step can make use of a reduced-order stiffness matrix, a backward difference matrix or a central difference matrix. The measured and interpolated floor acceleration components at all floors are then assembled and multiplied by a mass matrix. The recovered in-service force-displacement relations are then incorporated into the OpenSees soil structure interaction model.

Numerical simulations of soil-structure interaction involving non-uniform soil behavior are conducted following the development of the complete soil-structure interaction model of Christchurch Women's Hospital in OpenSees. In these 2D OpenSees models, the superstructure is modeled as two-dimensional frames in short span and long span respectively. The lead rubber bearings are modeled as elastomeric bearing (Bouc Wen) elements. The soil underlying the concrete raft foundation is modeled with linear elastic plane strain quadrilateral element. The non-uniformity of the soil profile is incorporated by extraction and interpolation of shear wave velocity profile from the Canterbury Geotechnical Database. The validity of the complete two-dimensional soil-structure interaction OpenSees model for the hospital is checked by comparing the results of peak floor responses and force-displacement relations within the isolation system achieved from OpenSees simulations to the recorded measurements. General explanations and implications, supported by displacement drifts, floor acceleration and displacement responses, force-displacement relations are described to address the effects of soil-structure interaction.

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Brain-computer interfaces (BCI) have the potential to restore communication or control abilities in individuals with severe neuromuscular limitations, such as those with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). The role of a BCI is to extract and decode relevant information that conveys a user's intent directly from brain electro-physiological signals and translate this information into executable commands to control external devices. However, the BCI decision-making process is error-prone due to noisy electro-physiological data, representing the classic problem of efficiently transmitting and receiving information via a noisy communication channel.

This research focuses on P300-based BCIs which rely predominantly on event-related potentials (ERP) that are elicited as a function of a user's uncertainty regarding stimulus events, in either an acoustic or a visual oddball recognition task. The P300-based BCI system enables users to communicate messages from a set of choices by selecting a target character or icon that conveys a desired intent or action. P300-based BCIs have been widely researched as a communication alternative, especially in individuals with ALS who represent a target BCI user population. For the P300-based BCI, repeated data measurements are required to enhance the low signal-to-noise ratio of the elicited ERPs embedded in electroencephalography (EEG) data, in order to improve the accuracy of the target character estimation process. As a result, BCIs have relatively slower speeds when compared to other commercial assistive communication devices, and this limits BCI adoption by their target user population. The goal of this research is to develop algorithms that take into account the physical limitations of the target BCI population to improve the efficiency of ERP-based spellers for real-world communication.

In this work, it is hypothesised that building adaptive capabilities into the BCI framework can potentially give the BCI system the flexibility to improve performance by adjusting system parameters in response to changing user inputs. The research in this work addresses three potential areas for improvement within the P300 speller framework: information optimisation, target character estimation and error correction. The visual interface and its operation control the method by which the ERPs are elicited through the presentation of stimulus events. The parameters of the stimulus presentation paradigm can be modified to modulate and enhance the elicited ERPs. A new stimulus presentation paradigm is developed in order to maximise the information content that is presented to the user by tuning stimulus paradigm parameters to positively affect performance. Internally, the BCI system determines the amount of data to collect and the method by which these data are processed to estimate the user's target character. Algorithms that exploit language information are developed to enhance the target character estimation process and to correct erroneous BCI selections. In addition, a new model-based method to predict BCI performance is developed, an approach which is independent of stimulus presentation paradigm and accounts for dynamic data collection. The studies presented in this work provide evidence that the proposed methods for incorporating adaptive strategies in the three areas have the potential to significantly improve BCI communication rates, and the proposed method for predicting BCI performance provides a reliable means to pre-assess BCI performance without extensive online testing.

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RNA viruses are an important cause of global morbidity and mortality. The rapid evolutionary rates of RNA virus pathogens, caused by high replication rates and error-prone polymerases, can make the pathogens difficult to control. RNA viruses can undergo immune escape within their hosts and develop resistance to the treatment and vaccines we design to fight them. Understanding the spread and evolution of RNA pathogens is essential for reducing human suffering. In this dissertation, I make use of the rapid evolutionary rate of viral pathogens to answer several questions about how RNA viruses spread and evolve. To address each of the questions, I link mathematical techniques for modeling viral population dynamics with phylogenetic and coalescent techniques for analyzing and modeling viral genetic sequences and evolution. The first project uses multi-scale mechanistic modeling to show that decreases in viral substitution rates over the course of an acute infection, combined with the timing of infectious hosts transmitting new infections to susceptible individuals, can account for discrepancies in viral substitution rates in different host populations. The second project combines coalescent models with within-host mathematical models to identify driving evolutionary forces in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The third project compares the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic viral transmission rate variation on viral phylogenies.

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The goal of this research was to determine the composition of boron deposits produced by pyrolysis of boron tribromide, and to use the results to (a) determine the experimental conditions (reaction temperature, etc.) necessary to produce alpha-rhombohedral boron and (b) guide the development/refinement of the pyrolysis experiments such that large, high purity crystals of alpha-rhombohedral boron can be produced with consistency. Developing a method for producing large, high purity alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals is of interest because such crystals could potentially be used to achieve an alpha-rhombohedral boron based neutron detector design (a solid-state detector) that could serve as an alternative to existing neutron detector technologies. The supply of neutron detectors in the United States has been hampered for a number of years due to the current shortage of helium-3 (a gas used in many existing neutron detector technologies); the development of alternative neutron detector technology such as an alpha-rhombohedral boron based detector would help provide a more sustainable supply of neutron detectors in this country. In addition, the prospect/concept of an alpha-rhombohedral boron based neutron detector is attractive because it offers the possibility of achieving a design that is smaller, longer life, less power consuming, and potentially more sensitive than existing neutron detectors. The main difficulty associated with creating an alpha-rhombohedral boron based neutron detector is that producing large, high purity crystals of alpha-rhombohedral boron is extremely challenging. Past researchers have successfully made alpha-rhombohedral boron via a number of methods, but no one has developed a method for consistently producing large, high purity crystals. Alpha-rhombohedral boron is difficult to make because it is only stable at temperatures below around 1100-1200 °C, its formation is very sensitive to impurities, and the conditions necessary for its formation are not fully understood or agreed upon in the literature. In this research, the method of pyrolysis of boron tribromide (hydrogen reduction of boron tribromide) was used to deposit boron on a tantalum filament. The goal was to refine this method, or potentially use it in combination with a second method (amorphous boron crystallization), to the point where it is possible to grow large, high purity alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals with consistency. A pyrolysis apparatus was designed and built, and a number of trials were run to determine the conditions (reaction temperature, etc.) necessary for alpha-rhombohedral boron production. This work was focused on the x-ray diffraction analysis of the boron deposits; x-ray diffraction was performed on a number of samples to determine the types of boron (and other compounds) formed in each trial and to guide the choices of test conditions for subsequent trials. It was found that at low reaction temperatures (in the range of around 830-950 °C), amorphous boron was the primary form of boron produced. Reaction temperatures in the range of around 950-1000 °C yielded various combinations of crystalline boron and amorphous boron. In the first trial performed at a temperature of 950 °C, a mix of amorphous boron and alpha-rhombohedral boron was formed. Using a scanning electron microscope, it was possible to see small alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals (on the order of ~1 micron in size) embedded in the surface of the deposit. In subsequent trials carried out at reaction temperatures in the range of 950 °C – 1000 °C, it was found that various combinations of alpha-rhombohedral boron, beta-rhombohedral boron, and amorphous boron were produced; the results tended to be unpredictable (alpha-rhombohedral boron was not produced in every trial), and the factors leading to success/failure were difficult to pinpoint. These results illustrate how sensitive of a process producing alpha-rhombohedral boron can be, and indicate that further improvements to the test apparatus and test conditions (for example, higher purity/cleanliness) may be necessary to optimize the boron deposition. Although alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals of large size were not achieved, this research was successful in (a) developing a pyrolysis apparatus and test procedure that can serve as a platform for future testing, (b) determining reaction temperatures at which alpha-rhombohedral boron can form, and (c) developing a consistent process for analyzing the boron deposits and determining their composition. Further experimentation is necessary to achieve a pyrolysis apparatus and test procedure that can yield large alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals with consistency.

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Purpose: To build a model that will predict the survival time for patients that were treated with stereotactic radiosurgery for brain metastases using support vector machine (SVM) regression.

Methods and Materials: This study utilized data from 481 patients, which were equally divided into training and validation datasets randomly. The SVM model used a Gaussian RBF function, along with various parameters, such as the size of the epsilon insensitive region and the cost parameter (C) that are used to control the amount of error tolerated by the model. The predictor variables for the SVM model consisted of the actual survival time of the patient, the number of brain metastases, the graded prognostic assessment (GPA) and Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) scores, prescription dose, and the largest planning target volume (PTV). The response of the model is the survival time of the patient. The resulting survival time predictions were analyzed against the actual survival times by single parameter classification and two-parameter classification. The predicted mean survival times within each classification were compared with the actual values to obtain the confidence interval associated with the model’s predictions. In addition to visualizing the data on plots using the means and error bars, the correlation coefficients between the actual and predicted means of the survival times were calculated during each step of the classification.

Results: The number of metastases and KPS scores, were consistently shown to be the strongest predictors in the single parameter classification, and were subsequently used as first classifiers in the two-parameter classification. When the survival times were analyzed with the number of metastases as the first classifier, the best correlation was obtained for patients with 3 metastases, while patients with 4 or 5 metastases had significantly worse results. When the KPS score was used as the first classifier, patients with a KPS score of 60 and 90/100 had similar strong correlation results. These mixed results are likely due to the limited data available for patients with more than 3 metastases or KPS scores of 60 or less.

Conclusions: The number of metastases and the KPS score both showed to be strong predictors of patient survival time. The model was less accurate for patients with more metastases and certain KPS scores due to the lack of training data.

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BACKGROUND: Efficient effort expenditure to obtain rewards is critical for optimal goal-directed behavior and learning. Clinical observation suggests that individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) may show dysregulated reward-based effort expenditure, but no behavioral study to date has assessed effort-based decision-making in ASD. METHODS: The current study compared a group of adults with ASD to a group of typically developing adults on the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task (EEfRT), a behavioral measure of effort-based decision-making. In this task, participants were provided with the probability of receiving a monetary reward on a particular trial and asked to choose between either an "easy task" (less motoric effort) for a small, stable reward or a "hard task" (greater motoric effort) for a variable but consistently larger reward. RESULTS: Participants with ASD chose the hard task more frequently than did the control group, yet were less influenced by differences in reward value and probability than the control group. Additionally, effort-based decision-making was related to repetitive behavior symptoms across both groups. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that individuals with ASD may be more willing to expend effort to obtain a monetary reward regardless of the reward contingencies. More broadly, results suggest that behavioral choices may be less influenced by information about reward contingencies in individuals with ASD. This atypical pattern of effort-based decision-making may be relevant for understanding the heightened reward motivation for circumscribed interests in ASD.