4 resultados para Transmission line modeling - TLM

em Duke University


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We used ultra-deep sequencing to obtain tens of thousands of HIV-1 sequences from regions targeted by CD8+ T lymphocytes from longitudinal samples from three acutely infected subjects, and modeled viral evolution during the critical first weeks of infection. Previous studies suggested that a single virus established productive infection, but these conclusions were tempered because of limited sampling; now, we have greatly increased our confidence in this observation through modeling the observed earliest sample diversity based on vastly more extensive sampling. Conventional sequencing of HIV-1 from acute/early infection has shown different patterns of escape at different epitopes; we investigated the earliest escapes in exquisite detail. Over 3-6 weeks, ultradeep sequencing revealed that the virus explored an extraordinary array of potential escape routes in the process of evading the earliest CD8 T-lymphocyte responses--using 454 sequencing, we identified over 50 variant forms of each targeted epitope during early immune escape, while only 2-7 variants were detected in the same samples via conventional sequencing. In contrast to the diversity seen within epitopes, non-epitope regions, including the Envelope V3 region, which was sequenced as a control in each subject, displayed very low levels of variation. In early infection, in the regions sequenced, the consensus forms did not have a fitness advantage large enough to trigger reversion to consensus amino acids in the absence of immune pressure. In one subject, a genetic bottleneck was observed, with extensive diversity at the second time point narrowing to two dominant escape forms by the third time point, all within two months of infection. Traces of immune escape were observed in the earliest samples, suggesting that immune pressure is present and effective earlier than previously reported; quantifying the loss rate of the founder virus suggests a direct role for CD8 T-lymphocyte responses in viral containment after peak viremia. Dramatic shifts in the frequencies of epitope variants during the first weeks of infection revealed a complex interplay between viral fitness and immune escape.

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A precise molecular identification of transmitted hepatitis C virus (HCV) genomes could illuminate key aspects of transmission biology, immunopathogenesis and natural history. We used single genome sequencing of 2,922 half or quarter genomes from plasma viral RNA to identify transmitted/founder (T/F) viruses in 17 subjects with acute community-acquired HCV infection. Sequences from 13 of 17 acute subjects, but none of 14 chronic controls, exhibited one or more discrete low diversity viral lineages. Sequences within each lineage generally revealed a star-like phylogeny of mutations that coalesced to unambiguous T/F viral genomes. Numbers of transmitted viruses leading to productive clinical infection were estimated to range from 1 to 37 or more (median = 4). Four acutely infected subjects showed a distinctly different pattern of virus diversity that deviated from a star-like phylogeny. In these cases, empirical analysis and mathematical modeling suggested high multiplicity virus transmission from individuals who themselves were acutely infected or had experienced a virus population bottleneck due to antiviral drug therapy. These results provide new quantitative and qualitative insights into HCV transmission, revealing for the first time virus-host interactions that successful vaccines or treatment interventions will need to overcome. Our findings further suggest a novel experimental strategy for identifying full-length T/F genomes for proteome-wide analyses of HCV biology and adaptation to antiviral drug or immune pressures.

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UNLABELLED: Infants born to HIV-1-infected mothers in resource-limited areas where replacement feeding is unsafe and impractical are repeatedly exposed to HIV-1 throughout breastfeeding. Despite this, the majority of infants do not contract HIV-1 postnatally, even in the absence of maternal antiretroviral therapy. This suggests that immune factors in breast milk of HIV-1-infected mothers help to limit vertical transmission. We compared the HIV-1 envelope-specific breast milk and plasma antibody responses of clade C HIV-1-infected postnatally transmitting and nontransmitting mothers in the control arm of the Malawi-based Breastfeeding Antiretrovirals and Nutrition Study using multivariable logistic regression modeling. We found no association between milk or plasma neutralization activity, antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity, or HIV-1 envelope-specific IgG responses and postnatal transmission risk. While the envelope-specific breast milk and plasma IgA responses also did not reach significance in predicting postnatal transmission risk in the primary model after correction for multiple comparisons, subsequent exploratory analysis using two distinct assay methodologies demonstrated that the magnitudes of breast milk total and secretory IgA responses against a consensus HIV-1 envelope gp140 (B.con env03) were associated with reduced postnatal transmission risk. These results suggest a protective role for mucosal HIV-1 envelope-specific IgA responses in the context of postnatal virus transmission. This finding supports further investigations into the mechanisms by which mucosal IgA reduces risk of HIV-1 transmission via breast milk and into immune interventions aimed at enhancing this response. IMPORTANCE: Infants born to HIV-1-infected mothers are repeatedly exposed to the virus in breast milk. Remarkably, the transmission rate is low, suggesting that immune factors in the breast milk of HIV-1-infected mothers help to limit transmission. We compared the antibody responses in plasma and breast milk of HIV-1-transmitting and -nontransmitting mothers to identify responses that correlated with reduced risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission. We found that neither plasma nor breast milk IgG antibody responses were associated with risk of HIV-1 transmission. In contrast, the magnitudes of the breast milk IgA and secretory IgA responses against HIV-1 envelope proteins were associated with reduced risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission. The results of this study support further investigations of the mechanisms by which mucosal IgA may reduce the risk of HIV-1 transmission via breastfeeding and the development of strategies to enhance milk envelope-specific IgA responses to reduce mother-to-child HIV transmission and promote an HIV-free generation.

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Bayesian nonparametric models, such as the Gaussian process and the Dirichlet process, have been extensively applied for target kinematics modeling in various applications including environmental monitoring, traffic planning, endangered species tracking, dynamic scene analysis, autonomous robot navigation, and human motion modeling. As shown by these successful applications, Bayesian nonparametric models are able to adjust their complexities adaptively from data as necessary, and are resistant to overfitting or underfitting. However, most existing works assume that the sensor measurements used to learn the Bayesian nonparametric target kinematics models are obtained a priori or that the target kinematics can be measured by the sensor at any given time throughout the task. Little work has been done for controlling the sensor with bounded field of view to obtain measurements of mobile targets that are most informative for reducing the uncertainty of the Bayesian nonparametric models. To present the systematic sensor planning approach to leaning Bayesian nonparametric models, the Gaussian process target kinematics model is introduced at first, which is capable of describing time-invariant spatial phenomena, such as ocean currents, temperature distributions and wind velocity fields. The Dirichlet process-Gaussian process target kinematics model is subsequently discussed for modeling mixture of mobile targets, such as pedestrian motion patterns.

Novel information theoretic functions are developed for these introduced Bayesian nonparametric target kinematics models to represent the expected utility of measurements as a function of sensor control inputs and random environmental variables. A Gaussian process expected Kullback Leibler divergence is developed as the expectation of the KL divergence between the current (prior) and posterior Gaussian process target kinematics models with respect to the future measurements. Then, this approach is extended to develop a new information value function that can be used to estimate target kinematics described by a Dirichlet process-Gaussian process mixture model. A theorem is proposed that shows the novel information theoretic functions are bounded. Based on this theorem, efficient estimators of the new information theoretic functions are designed, which are proved to be unbiased with the variance of the resultant approximation error decreasing linearly as the number of samples increases. Computational complexities for optimizing the novel information theoretic functions under sensor dynamics constraints are studied, and are proved to be NP-hard. A cumulative lower bound is then proposed to reduce the computational complexity to polynomial time.

Three sensor planning algorithms are developed according to the assumptions on the target kinematics and the sensor dynamics. For problems where the control space of the sensor is discrete, a greedy algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the greedy algorithm is demonstrated by a numerical experiment with data of ocean currents obtained by moored buoys. A sweep line algorithm is developed for applications where the sensor control space is continuous and unconstrained. Synthetic simulations as well as physical experiments with ground robots and a surveillance camera are conducted to evaluate the performance of the sweep line algorithm. Moreover, a lexicographic algorithm is designed based on the cumulative lower bound of the novel information theoretic functions, for the scenario where the sensor dynamics are constrained. Numerical experiments with real data collected from indoor pedestrians by a commercial pan-tilt camera are performed to examine the lexicographic algorithm. Results from both the numerical simulations and the physical experiments show that the three sensor planning algorithms proposed in this dissertation based on the novel information theoretic functions are superior at learning the target kinematics with

little or no prior knowledge