Balancing Cost and Emissions Certainty: An Allowance Reserve for Cap-and-Trade

On efficiency grounds, the economics community has to date tended to emphasize price-based policies to address climate change - such as taxes or a "safety-valve" price ceiling for cap-and-trade - while environmental advocates have sought a more clear quantitative limit on emissions. This paper presents a simple modification to the idea of a safety valve - a quantitative limit that we call the allowance reserve. Importantly, this idea may bridge the gap between competing interests and potentially improve efficiency relative to tax or other price-based policies. The last point highlights the deficiencies in several previous studies of price and quantity controls for climate change that do not adequately capture the dynamic opportunities within a cap-and-trade system for allowance banking, borrowing, and intertemporal arbitrage in response to unfolding information.

The empirical analysis of cigarette tax avoidance and illicit trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010.

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.

China in Global Value Chains: Implications for Industrial Policy and Development

Rapid technological advances and liberal trade regimes permit functional reintegration of dispersed activities into new border-spanning business networks variously referred to as global value chains (GVCs). Given that the gains of a country from GVCs depend on the activities taking place in its jurisdiction and their linkages to global markets, this study starts by providing a descriptive overview of China’s economic structure and trade profile. The first two chapters of this paper demonstrate what significant role GVCs have played in China’s economic growth, evident in enhanced productivity, diversification, and sophistication of China’s exports, and how these economic benefits have propelled China’s emergence as the world’s manufacturing hub in the past two decades. However, benefits from GVC participation – in particular technological learning, knowledge building, and industrial upgrading – are not automatic. What strategies would help Chinese industries engage with GVCs in ways that are deemed sustainable in the long run? What challenges and related opportunities China would face throughout the implementation process? The last two chapters of this paper focus on implications of GVCs for China’s industrial policy and development. Chapter Three examines how China is reorienting its manufacturing sector toward the production of higher value-added goods and expanding its service sector, both domestically and internationally; while Chapter Four provides illustrative policy recommendations on dealing with the positive and negative outcomes triggered by GVCs, within China and beyond the country’s borders. To the end, this study also hopes to shed some light on the lessons and complexities that arise from GVC participation for other developing countries.