Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics

Recent empirical findings suggest that the long-run dependence in U.S. stock market volatility is best described by a slowly mean-reverting fractionally integrated process. The present study complements this existing time-series-based evidence by comparing the risk-neutralized option pricing distributions from various ARCH-type formulations. Utilizing a panel data set consisting of newly created exchange traded long-term equity anticipation securities, or leaps, on the Standard and Poor's 500 stock market index with maturity times ranging up to three years, we find that the degree of mean reversion in the volatility process implicit in these prices is best described by a Fractionally Integrated EGARCH (FIEGARCH) model. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Spider monkey home ranges: A comparison of radio telemetry and direct observation

The ranging patterns of two male and five female spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) were studied with the use of radio telemetry in Santa Rosa National Park, Costa Rica. The average size of a spider monkey home range was 62.4 hectares; however, range size varied with sex, and, for females, with the presence of a dependent infant. The probability of encountering a radio‐collared spider monkey in a three‐hour search using radio telemetry (0.91) was much greater than using a visual search (0.20), and telemetric data resulted in a larger estimate of mean home range size than did observational data, when all subjects were compared. However, the difference appeared to be owing to the presence of male ranges in the telemetric, but not the observational, data. When the size of home ranges derived from radio‐tracking data for adult females was compared to size of ranges for adult females derived from observations, the results were not significantly different. Adult males had larger home ranges than adult females, thus lending support to the hypothesis that males have adapted to the dispersion of females by occupying a large home range that overlaps the ranges of several adult females. The smallest home ranges were occupied by low‐weight females with dependent infants, perhaps reflecting social and energetic constraints. Copyright © 1988 Wiley‐Liss, Inc., A Wiley Company

Shifting ranges and conservation challenges for lemurs in the face of climate change.

Geospatial modeling is one of the most powerful tools available to conservation biologists for estimating current species ranges of Earth's biodiversity. Now, with the advantage of predictive climate models, these methods can be deployed for understanding future impacts on threatened biota. Here, we employ predictive modeling under a conservative estimate of future climate change to examine impacts on the future abundance and geographic distributions of Malagasy lemurs. Using distribution data from the primary literature, we employed ensemble species distribution models and geospatial analyses to predict future changes in species distributions. Current species distribution models (SDMs) were created within the BIOMOD2 framework that capitalizes on ten widely used modeling techniques. Future and current SDMs were then subtracted from each other, and areas of contraction, expansion, and stability were calculated. Model overprediction is a common issue associated Malagasy taxa. Accordingly, we introduce novel methods for incorporating biological data on dispersal potential to better inform the selection of pseudo-absence points. This study predicts that 60% of the 57 species examined will experience a considerable range of reductions in the next seventy years entirely due to future climate change. Of these species, range sizes are predicted to decrease by an average of 59.6%. Nine lemur species (16%) are predicted to expand their ranges, and 13 species (22.8%) distribution sizes were predicted to be stable through time. Species ranges will experience severe shifts, typically contractions, and for the majority of lemur species, geographic distributions will be considerably altered. We identify three areas in dire need of protection, concluding that strategically managed forest corridors must be a key component of lemur and other biodiversity conservation strategies. This recommendation is all the more urgent given that the results presented here do not take into account patterns of ongoing habitat destruction relating to human activities.