Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise.

The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

Low demographic variability in wild primate populations: fitness impacts of variation, covariation, and serial correlation in vital rates.

In a stochastic environment, long-term fitness can be influenced by variation, covariation, and serial correlation in vital rates (survival and fertility). Yet no study of an animal population has parsed the contributions of these three aspects of variability to long-term fitness. We do so using a unique database that includes complete life-history information for wild-living individuals of seven primate species that have been the subjects of long-term (22-45 years) behavioral studies. Overall, the estimated levels of vital rate variation had only minor effects on long-term fitness, and the effects of vital rate covariation and serial correlation were even weaker. To explore why, we compared estimated variances of adult survival in primates with values for other vertebrates in the literature and found that adult survival is significantly less variable in primates than it is in the other vertebrates. Finally, we tested the prediction that adult survival, because it more strongly influences fitness in a constant environment, will be less variable than newborn survival, and we found only mixed support for the prediction. Our results suggest that wild primates may be buffered against detrimental fitness effects of environmental stochasticity by their highly developed cognitive abilities, social networks, and broad, flexible diets.

Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001ĝ€ "2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997ĝ€ "2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

Intensification of summer rainfall variability in the southeastern United States during recent decades

The variability of summer precipitation in the southeastern United States is examined in this study using 60-yr (1948-2007) rainfall data. The Southeast summer rainfalls exhibited higher interannual variability with more intense summer droughts and anomalous wetness in the recent 30 years (1978-2007) than in the prior 30 years (1948-77). Such intensification of summer rainfall variability was consistent with a decrease of light (0.1-1 mm day-1) and medium (1-10 mm day-1) rainfall events during extremely dry summers and an increase of heavy (.10 mm day-1) rainfall events in extremely wet summers. Changes in rainfall variability were also accompanied by a southward shift of the region of maximum zonal wind variability at the jet stream level in the latter period. The covariability between the Southeast summer precipitation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is also analyzed using the singular value decomposition (SVD) method. It is shown that the increase of Southeast summer precipitation variability is primarily associated with a higher SST variability across the equatorial Atlantic and also SST warming in the Atlantic. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Variability in frontotemporal brain structure: the importance of recruitment of African Americans in neuroscience research.

BACKGROUND: Variation in brain structure is both genetically and environmentally influenced. The question about potential differences in brain anatomy across populations of differing race and ethnicity remains a controversial issue. There are few studies specifically examining racial or ethnic differences and also few studies that test for race-related differences in context of other neuropsychiatric research, possibly due to the underrepresentation of ethnic minorities in clinical research. It is within this context that we conducted a secondary data analysis examining volumetric MRI data from healthy participants and compared the volumes of the amygdala, hippocampus, lateral ventricles, caudate nucleus, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and total cerebral volume between Caucasian and African-American participants. We discuss the importance of this finding in context of neuroimaging methodology, but also the need for improved recruitment of African Americans in clinical research and its broader implications for a better understanding of the neural basis of neuropsychiatric disorders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This was a case control study in the setting of an academic medical center outpatient service. Participants consisted of 44 Caucasians and 33 ethnic minorities. The following volumetric data were obtained: amygdala, hippocampus, lateral ventricles, caudate nucleus, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and total cerebrum. Each participant completed a 1.5 T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Our primary finding in analyses of brain subregions was that when compared to Caucasians, African Americans exhibited larger left OFC volumes (F (1,68) = 7.50, p = 0.008). CONCLUSIONS: The biological implications of our findings are unclear as we do not know what factors may be contributing to these observed differences. However, this study raises several questions that have important implications for the future of neuropsychiatric research.

Variability of particulate matter concentrations along roads and motorways determined by a moving measurement unit

The spatial variability of aerosol number and mass along roads was determined in different regions (urban, rural and coastal-marine) of the Netherlands. A condensation particle counter (CPC) and an optical aerosol spectrometer (LAS-X) were installed in a van along with a global positioning system (GPS). Concentrations were measured with high-time resolutions while driving allowing investigations not possible with stationary equipment. In particular, this approach proves to be useful to identify those locations where numbers and mass attain high levels ('hot spots'). In general, concentrations of number and mass of particulate matter increase along with the degree of urbanisation, with number concentration being the more sensitive indicator. The lowest particle numbers and PM1-concentrations are encountered in a coastal and rural area: <5000cm-3 and 6μgm-3, respectively. The presence of sea-salt material along the North-Sea coast enhances PM>1-concentrations compared to inland levels. High-particle numbers are encountered on motorways correlating with traffic intensity; the largest average number concentration is measured on the ring motorway around Amsterdam: about 160000cm-3 (traffic intensity 100000vehday-1). Peak values occur in tunnels where numbers exceed 106cm-3. Enhanced PM1 levels (i.e. larger than 9μgm-3) exist on motorways, major traffic roads and in tunnels. The concentrations of PM>1 appear rather uniformly distributed (below 6μgm-3 for most observations). On the urban scale, (large) spatial variations in concentration can be explained by varying intensities of traffic and driving patterns. The highest particle numbers are measured while being in traffic congestions or when behind a heavy diesel-driven vehicle (up to 600×103cm-3). Relatively high numbers are observed during the passages of crossings and, at a decreasing rate, on main roads with much traffic, quiet streets and residential areas with limited traffic. The number concentration exhibits a larger variability than mass: the mass concentration on city roads with much traffic is 12% higher than in a residential area at the edge of the same city while the number of particles changes by a factor of two (due to the presence of the ultrafine particles (aerodynamic diameter <100nm). It is further indicated that people residing at some 100m downwind a major traffic source are exposed to (still) 40% more particles than those living in the urban background areas. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of geologic variability on capacity and cost estimates for storing CO 2 in deep-saline aquifers

While numerous studies find that deep-saline sandstone aquifers in the United States could store many decades worth of the nation's current annual CO 2 emissions, the likely cost of this storage (i.e. the cost of storage only and not capture and transport costs) has been harder to constrain. We use publicly available data of key reservoir properties to produce geo-referenced rasters of estimated storage capacity and cost for regions within 15 deep-saline sandstone aquifers in the United States. The rasters reveal the reservoir quality of these aquifers to be so variable that the cost estimates for storage span three orders of magnitude and average>$100/tonne CO 2. However, when the cost and corresponding capacity estimates in the rasters are assembled into a marginal abatement cost curve (MACC), we find that ~75% of the estimated storage capacity could be available for<$2/tonne. Furthermore, ~80% of the total estimated storage capacity in the rasters is concentrated within just two of the aquifers-the Frio Formation along the Texas Gulf Coast, and the Mt. Simon Formation in the Michigan Basin, which together make up only ~20% of the areas analyzed. While our assessment is not comprehensive, the results suggest there should be an abundance of low-cost storage for CO 2 in deep-saline aquifers, but a majority of this storage is likely to be concentrated within specific regions of a smaller number of these aquifers. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

BOLD signal compartmentalization based on the apparent diffusion coefficient.

Functional MRI (fMRI) can detect blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) hemodynamic responses secondary to neuronal activity. The most commonly used method for detecting fMRI signals is the gradient-echo echo-planar imaging (EPI) technique because of its sensitivity and speed. However, it is generally believed that a significant portion of these signals arises from large veins, with additional contribution from the capillaries and parenchyma. Early experiments using diffusion-weighted gradient-echo EPI have suggested that intra-voxel incoherent motion (IVIM) weighting inherent in the sequence can selectively attenuate contributions from different vessels based on the differences in the mobility of the blood within them. In the present study, we used similar approach to characterize the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) distribution within the activated areas of BOLD contrast. It is shown that the voxel values of the ADCs obtained from this technique can infer various vascular contributions to the BOLD signal.

Smoothened signal transduction is promoted by G protein-coupled receptor kinase 2.

Deregulation of the Sonic hedgehog pathway has been implicated in an increasing number of human cancers. In this pathway, the seven-transmembrane (7TM) signaling protein Smoothened regulates cellular proliferation and differentiation through activation of the transcription factor Gli. The activity of mammalian Smoothened is controlled by three different hedgehog proteins, Indian, Desert, and Sonic hedgehog, through their interaction with the Smoothened inhibitor Patched. However, the mechanisms of signal transduction from Smoothened are poorly understood. We show that a kinase which regulates signaling by many "conventional" 7TM G-protein-coupled receptors, G protein-coupled receptor kinase 2 (GRK2), participates in Smoothened signaling. Expression of GRK2, but not catalytically inactive GRK2, synergizes with active Smoothened to mediate Gli-dependent transcription. Moreover, knockdown of endogenous GRK2 by short hairpin RNA (shRNA) significantly reduces signaling in response to the Smoothened agonist SAG and also inhibits signaling induced by an oncogenic Smoothened mutant, Smo M2. We find that GRK2 promotes the association between active Smoothened and beta-arrestin 2. Indeed, Gli-dependent signaling, mediated by coexpression of Smoothened and GRK2, is diminished by beta-arrestin 2 knockdown with shRNA. Together, these data suggest that GRK2 plays a positive role in Smoothened signaling, at least in part, through the promotion of an association between beta-arrestin 2 and Smoothened.

Independent beta-arrestin 2 and G protein-mediated pathways for angiotensin II activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1 and 2.

Stimulation of a mutant angiotensin type 1A receptor (DRY/AAY) with angiotensin II (Ang II) or of a wild-type receptor with an Ang II analog ([sarcosine1,Ile4,Ile8]Ang II) fails to activate classical heterotrimeric G protein signaling but does lead to recruitment of beta-arrestin 2-GFP and activation of extracellular signal-regulated kinases 1 and 2 (ERK1/2) (maximum stimulation approximately 50% of wild type). This G protein-independent activation of mitogen-activated protein kinase is abolished by depletion of cellular beta-arrestin 2 but is unaffected by the PKC inhibitor Ro-31-8425. In parallel, stimulation of the wild-type angiotensin type 1A receptor with Ang II robustly stimulates ERK1/2 activation with approximately 60% of the response blocked by the PKC inhibitor (G protein dependent) and the rest of the response blocked by depletion of cellular beta-arrestin 2 by small interfering RNA (beta-arrestin dependent). These findings imply the existence of independent G protein- and beta-arrestin 2-mediated pathways leading to ERK1/2 activation and the existence of distinct "active" conformations of a seven-membrane-spanning receptor coupled to each.

Activation and targeting of extracellular signal-regulated kinases by beta-arrestin scaffolds.

Using both confocal immunofluorescence microscopy and biochemical approaches, we have examined the role of beta-arrestins in the activation and targeting of extracellular signal-regulated kinase 2 (ERK2) following stimulation of angiotensin II type 1a receptors (AT1aR). In HEK-293 cells expressing hemagglutinin-tagged AT1aR, angiotensin stimulation triggered beta-arrestin-2 binding to the receptor and internalization of AT1aR-beta-arrestin complexes. Using red fluorescent protein-tagged ERK2 to track the subcellular distribution of ERK2, we found that angiotensin treatment caused the redistribution of activated ERK2 into endosomal vesicles that also contained AT1aR-beta-arrestin complexes. This targeting of ERK2 reflects the formation of multiprotein complexes containing AT1aR, beta-arrestin-2, and the component kinases of the ERK cascade, cRaf-1, MEK1, and ERK2. Myc-tagged cRaf-1, MEK1, and green fluorescent protein-tagged ERK2 coprecipitated with Flag-tagged beta-arrestin-2 from transfected COS-7 cells. Coprecipitation of cRaf-1 with beta-arrestin-2 was independent of MEK1 and ERK2, whereas the coprecipitation of MEK1 and ERK2 with beta-arrestin-2 was significantly enhanced in the presence of overexpressed cRaf-1, suggesting that binding of cRaf-1 to beta-arrestin facilitates the assembly of a cRaf-1, MEK1, ERK2 complex. The phosphorylation of ERK2 in beta-arrestin complexes was markedly enhanced by coexpression of cRaf-1, and this effect is blocked by expression of a catalytically inactive dominant inhibitory mutant of MEK1. Stimulation with angiotensin increased the binding of both cRaf-1 and ERK2 to beta-arrestin-2, and the association of beta-arrestin-2, cRaf-1, and ERK2 with AT1aR. These data suggest that beta-arrestins function both as scaffolds to enhance cRaf-1 and MEK-dependent activation of ERK2, and as targeting proteins that direct activated ERK to specific subcellular locations.

A beta-adrenergic receptor kinase-like enzyme is involved in olfactory signal termination.

We have previously shown that second-messenger-dependent kinases (cAMP-dependent kinase, protein kinase C) in the olfactory system are essential in terminating second-messenger signaling in response to odorants. We now document that subtype 2 of the beta-adrenergic receptor kinase (beta ARK) is also involved in this process. By using subtype-specific antibodies to beta ARK-1 and beta ARK-2, we show that beta ARK-2 is preferentially expressed in the olfactory epithelium in contrast to findings in most other tissues. Heparin, an inhibitor of beta ARK, as well as anti-beta ARK-2 antibodies, (i) completely prevents the rapid decline of second-messenger signals (desensitization) that follows odorant stimulation and (ii) strongly inhibits odorant-induced phosphorylation of olfactory ciliary proteins. In contrast, beta ARK-1 antibodies are without effect. Inhibitors of protein kinase A and protein kinase C also block odorant-induced desensitization and phosphorylation. These data suggest that a sequential interplay of second-messenger-dependent and receptor-specific kinases is functionally involved in olfactory desensitization.

Adrenergic receptors. Models for regulation of signal transduction processes.

Adrenergic receptors are prototypic models for the study of the relations between structure and function of G protein-coupled receptors. Each receptor is encoded by a distinct gene. These receptors are integral membrane proteins with several striking structural features. They consist of a single subunit containing seven stretches of 20-28 hydrophobic amino acids that represent potential membrane-spanning alpha-helixes. Many of these receptors share considerable amino acid sequence homology, particularly in the transmembrane domains. All of these macromolecules share other similarities that include one or more potential sites of extracellular N-linked glycosylation near the amino terminus and several potential sites of regulatory phosphorylation that are located intracellularly. By using a variety of techniques, it has been demonstrated that various regions of the receptor molecules are critical for different receptor functions. The seven transmembrane regions of the receptors appear to form a ligand-binding pocket. Cysteine residues in the extracellular domains may stabilize the ligand-binding pocket by participating in disulfide bonds. The cytoplasmic domains contain regions capable of interacting with G proteins and various kinases and are therefore important in such processes as signal transduction, receptor-G protein coupling, receptor sequestration, and down-regulation. Finally, regions of these macromolecules may undergo posttranslational modifications important in the regulation of receptor function. Our understanding of these complex relations is constantly evolving and much work remains to be done. Greater understanding of the basic mechanisms involved in G protein-coupled, receptor-mediated signal transduction may provide leads into the nature of certain pathophysiological states.