Essays on Job Search and Labor Market Dynamics

This dissertation consists of three separate essays on job search and labor market dynamics. In the first essay, “The Impact of Labor Market Conditions on Job Creation: Evidence from Firm Level Data”, I study how much changes in labor market conditions reduce employment fluctuations over the business cycle. Changes in labor market conditions make hiring more expensive during expansions and cheaper during recessions, creating counter-cyclical incentives for job creation. I estimate firm level elasticities of labor demand with respect to changes in labor market conditions, considering two margins: changes in labor market tightness and changes in wages. Using employer-employee matched data from Brazil, I find that all firms are more sensitive to changes in wages rather than labor market tightness, and there is substantial heterogeneity in labor demand elasticity across regions. Based on these results, I demonstrate that changes in labor market conditions reduce the variance of employment growth over the business cycle by 20% in a median region, and this effect is equally driven by changes along each margin. Moreover, I show that the magnitude of the effect of labor market conditions on employment growth can be significantly affected by economic policy. In particular, I document that the rapid growth of the national minimum wages in Brazil in 1997-2010 amplified the impact of the change in labor market conditions during local expansions and diminished this impact during local recessions.

In the second essay, “A Framework for Estimating Persistence of Local Labor

Demand Shocks”, I propose a decomposition which allows me to study the persistence of local labor demand shocks. Persistence of labor demand shocks varies across industries, and the incidence of shocks in a region depends on the regional industrial composition. As a result, less diverse regions are more likely to experience deeper shocks, but not necessarily more long lasting shocks. Building on this idea, I propose a decomposition of local labor demand shocks into idiosyncratic location shocks and nationwide industry shocks and estimate the variance and the persistence of these shocks using the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) in 1990-2013.

In the third essay, “Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Continuous- Time Job Search Models”, co-authored with Peter Arcidiacono and Arnaud Maurel, we propose a novel, computationally feasible method of estimating non-stationary job search models. Non-stationary job search models arise in many applications, where policy change can be anticipated by the workers. The most prominent example of such policy is the expiration of unemployment benefits. However, estimating these models still poses a considerable computational challenge, because of the need to solve a differential equation numerically at each step of the optimization routine. We overcome this challenge by adopting conditional choice probability methods, widely used in dynamic discrete choice literature, to job search models and show how the hazard rate out of unemployment and the distribution of the accepted wages, which can be estimated in many datasets, can be used to infer the value of unemployment. We demonstrate how to apply our method by analyzing the effect of the unemployment benefit expiration on duration of unemployment using the data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996-2007.

Application of Numerical Methods to Study Arrangement and Fracture of Lithium-Ion Microstructure

The focus of this work is to develop and employ numerical methods that provide characterization of granular microstructures, dynamic fragmentation of brittle materials, and dynamic fracture of three-dimensional bodies.

We first propose the fabric tensor formalism to describe the structure and evolution of lithium-ion electrode microstructure during the calendaring process. Fabric tensors are directional measures of particulate assemblies based on inter-particle connectivity, relating to the structural and transport properties of the electrode. Applying this technique to X-ray computed tomography of cathode microstructure, we show that fabric tensors capture the evolution of the inter-particle contact distribution and are therefore good measures for the internal state of and electronic transport within the electrode.

We then shift focus to the development and analysis of fracture models within finite element simulations. A difficult problem to characterize in the realm of fracture modeling is that of fragmentation, wherein brittle materials subjected to a uniform tensile loading break apart into a large number of smaller pieces. We explore the effect of numerical precision in the results of dynamic fragmentation simulations using the cohesive element approach on a one-dimensional domain. By introducing random and non-random field variations, we discern that round-off error plays a significant role in establishing a mesh-convergent solution for uniform fragmentation problems. Further, by using differing magnitudes of randomized material properties and mesh discretizations, we find that employing randomness can improve convergence behavior and provide a computational savings.

The Thick Level-Set model is implemented to describe brittle media undergoing dynamic fragmentation as an alternative to the cohesive element approach. This non-local damage model features a level-set function that defines the extent and severity of degradation and uses a length scale to limit the damage gradient. In terms of energy dissipated by fracture and mean fragment size, we find that the proposed model reproduces the rate-dependent observations of analytical approaches, cohesive element simulations, and experimental studies.

Lastly, the Thick Level-Set model is implemented in three dimensions to describe the dynamic failure of brittle media, such as the active material particles in the battery cathode during manufacturing. The proposed model matches expected behavior from physical experiments, analytical approaches, and numerical models, and mesh convergence is established. We find that the use of an asymmetrical damage model to represent tensile damage is important to producing the expected results for brittle fracture problems.

The impact of this work is that designers of lithium-ion battery components can employ the numerical methods presented herein to analyze the evolving electrode microstructure during manufacturing, operational, and extraordinary loadings. This allows for enhanced designs and manufacturing methods that advance the state of battery technology. Further, these numerical tools have applicability in a broad range of fields, from geotechnical analysis to ice-sheet modeling to armor design to hydraulic fracturing.