Assessing variability and long-term trends in burned area by merging multiple satellite fire products

Long term, high quality estimates of burned area are needed for improving both prognostic and diagnostic fire emissions models and for assessing feedbacks between fire and the climate system. We developed global, monthly burned area estimates aggregated to 0.5° spatial resolution for the time period July 1996 through mid-2009 using four satellite data sets. From 2001ĝ€ "2009, our primary data source was 500-m burned area maps produced using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance imagery; more than 90% of the global area burned during this time period was mapped in this fashion. During times when the 500-m MODIS data were not available, we used a combination of local regression and regional regression trees developed over periods when burned area and Terra MODIS active fire data were available to indirectly estimate burned area. Cross-calibration with fire observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS) and the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) allowed the data set to be extended prior to the MODIS era. With our data set we estimated that the global annual area burned for the years 1997ĝ€ "2008 varied between 330 and 431 Mha, with the maximum occurring in 1998. We compared our data set to the recent GFED2, L3JRC, GLOBCARBON, and MODIS MCD45A1 global burned area products and found substantial differences in many regions. Lastly, we assessed the interannual variability and long-term trends in global burned area over the past 13 years. This burned area time series serves as the basis for the third version of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED3) estimates of trace gas and aerosol emissions.

Mapping the structure of perceptual and visual-motor abilities in healthy young adults.

The ability to quickly detect and respond to visual stimuli in the environment is critical to many human activities. While such perceptual and visual-motor skills are important in a myriad of contexts, considerable variability exists between individuals in these abilities. To better understand the sources of this variability, we assessed perceptual and visual-motor skills in a large sample of 230 healthy individuals via the Nike SPARQ Sensory Station, and compared variability in their behavioral performance to demographic, state, sleep and consumption characteristics. Dimension reduction and regression analyses indicated three underlying factors: Visual-Motor Control, Visual Sensitivity, and Eye Quickness, which accounted for roughly half of the overall population variance in performance on this battery. Inter-individual variability in Visual-Motor Control was correlated with gender and circadian patters such that performance on this factor was better for males and for those who had been awake for a longer period of time before assessment. The current findings indicate that abilities involving coordinated hand movements in response to stimuli are subject to greater individual variability, while visual sensitivity and occulomotor control are largely stable across individuals.

Development and Testing of An Automatic Lung IMRT Planning Algorithm

Knowledge-based radiation treatment is an emerging concept in radiotherapy. It

mainly refers to the technique that can guide or automate treatment planning in

clinic by learning from prior knowledge. Dierent models are developed to realize

it, one of which is proposed by Yuan et al. at Duke for lung IMRT planning. This

model can automatically determine both beam conguration and optimization ob-

jectives with non-coplanar beams based on patient-specic anatomical information.

Although plans automatically generated by this model demonstrate equivalent or

better dosimetric quality compared to clinical approved plans, its validity and gener-

ality are limited due to the empirical assignment to a coecient called angle spread

constraint dened in the beam eciency index used for beam ranking. To eliminate

these limitations, a systematic study on this coecient is needed to acquire evidences

for its optimal value.

To achieve this purpose, eleven lung cancer patients with complex tumor shape

with non-coplanar beams adopted in clinical approved plans were retrospectively

studied in the frame of the automatic lung IMRT treatment algorithm. The primary

and boost plans used in three patients were treated as dierent cases due to the

dierent target size and shape. A total of 14 lung cases, thus, were re-planned using

the knowledge-based automatic lung IMRT planning algorithm by varying angle

spread constraint from 0 to 1 with increment of 0.2. A modied beam angle eciency

index used for navigate the beam selection was adopted. Great eorts were made to assure the quality of plans associated to every angle spread constraint as good

as possible. Important dosimetric parameters for PTV and OARs, quantitatively

re

ecting the plan quality, were extracted from the DVHs and analyzed as a function

of angle spread constraint for each case. Comparisons of these parameters between

clinical plans and model-based plans were evaluated by two-sampled Students t-tests,

and regression analysis on a composite index built on the percentage errors between

dosimetric parameters in the model-based plans and those in the clinical plans as a

function of angle spread constraint was performed.

Results show that model-based plans generally have equivalent or better quality

than clinical approved plans, qualitatively and quantitatively. All dosimetric param-

eters except those for lungs in the automatically generated plans are statistically

better or comparable to those in the clinical plans. On average, more than 15% re-

duction on conformity index and homogeneity index for PTV and V40, V60 for heart

while an 8% and 3% increase on V5, V20 for lungs, respectively, are observed. The

intra-plan comparison among model-based plans demonstrates that plan quality does

not change much with angle spread constraint larger than 0.4. Further examination

on the variation curve of the composite index as a function of angle spread constraint

shows that 0.6 is the optimal value that can result in statistically the best achievable

plans.

Do debit cards increase household spending? Evidence from a semiparametric causal analysis of a survey

© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2014.Motivated by recent findings in the field of consumer science, this paper evaluates the causal effect of debit cards on household consumption using population-based data from the Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW). Within the Rubin Causal Model, we focus on the estimand of population average treatment effect for the treated (PATT). We consider three existing estimators, based on regression, mixed matching and regression, propensity score weighting, and propose a new doubly-robust estimator. Semiparametric specification based on power series for the potential outcomes and the propensity score is adopted. Cross-validation is used to select the order of the power series. We conduct a simulation study to compare the performance of the estimators. The key assumptions, overlap and unconfoundedness, are systematically assessed and validated in the application. Our empirical results suggest statistically significant positive effects of debit cards on the monthly household spending in Italy.

Phylogenomic analyses data of the avian phylogenomics project.

BACKGROUND: Determining the evolutionary relationships among the major lineages of extant birds has been one of the biggest challenges in systematic biology. To address this challenge, we assembled or collected the genomes of 48 avian species spanning most orders of birds, including all Neognathae and two of the five Palaeognathae orders. We used these genomes to construct a genome-scale avian phylogenetic tree and perform comparative genomic analyses. FINDINGS: Here we present the datasets associated with the phylogenomic analyses, which include sequence alignment files consisting of nucleotides, amino acids, indels, and transposable elements, as well as tree files containing gene trees and species trees. Inferring an accurate phylogeny required generating: 1) A well annotated data set across species based on genome synteny; 2) Alignments with unaligned or incorrectly overaligned sequences filtered out; and 3) Diverse data sets, including genes and their inferred trees, indels, and transposable elements. Our total evidence nucleotide tree (TENT) data set (consisting of exons, introns, and UCEs) gave what we consider our most reliable species tree when using the concatenation-based ExaML algorithm or when using statistical binning with the coalescence-based MP-EST algorithm (which we refer to as MP-EST*). Other data sets, such as the coding sequence of some exons, revealed other properties of genome evolution, namely convergence. CONCLUSIONS: The Avian Phylogenomics Project is the largest vertebrate phylogenomics project to date that we are aware of. The sequence, alignment, and tree data are expected to accelerate analyses in phylogenomics and other related areas.

PoisonIvy: Safe speculation for secure memory

Encryption and integrity trees guard against phys- ical attacks, but harm performance. Prior academic work has speculated around the latency of integrity verification, but has done so in an insecure manner. No industrial implementations of secure processors have included speculation. This work presents PoisonIvy, a mechanism which speculatively uses data before its integrity has been verified while preserving security and closing address-based side-channels. PoisonIvy reduces per- formance overheads from 40% to 20% for memory intensive workloads and down to 1.8%, on average.