4 resultados para Receiver operating characterictics

em Duke University


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Determination of copy number variants (CNVs) inferred in genome wide single nucleotide polymorphism arrays has shown increasing utility in genetic variant disease associations. Several CNV detection methods are available, but differences in CNV call thresholds and characteristics exist. We evaluated the relative performance of seven methods: circular binary segmentation, CNVFinder, cnvPartition, gain and loss of DNA, Nexus algorithms, PennCNV and QuantiSNP. Tested data included real and simulated Illumina HumHap 550 data from the Singapore cohort study of the risk factors for Myopia (SCORM) and simulated data from Affymetrix 6.0 and platform-independent distributions. The normalized singleton ratio (NSR) is proposed as a metric for parameter optimization before enacting full analysis. We used 10 SCORM samples for optimizing parameter settings for each method and then evaluated method performance at optimal parameters using 100 SCORM samples. The statistical power, false positive rates, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve residuals were evaluated by simulation studies. Optimal parameters, as determined by NSR and ROC curve residuals, were consistent across datasets. QuantiSNP outperformed other methods based on ROC curve residuals over most datasets. Nexus Rank and SNPRank have low specificity and high power. Nexus Rank calls oversized CNVs. PennCNV detects one of the fewest numbers of CNVs.

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BACKGROUND: The Notch signaling pathway is constitutively activated in human cutaneous melanoma to promote growth and aggressive metastatic potential of primary melanoma cells. Therefore, genetic variants in Notch pathway genes may affect the prognosis of cutaneous melanoma patients. METHODS: We identified 6,256 SNPs in 48 Notch genes in 858 cutaneous melanoma patients included in a previously published cutaneous melanoma genome-wide association study dataset. Multivariate and stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression and false-positive report probability corrections were performed to evaluate associations between putative functional SNPs and cutaneous melanoma disease-specific survival. Receiver operating characteristic curve was constructed, and area under the curve was used to assess the classification performance of the model. RESULTS: Four putative functional SNPs of Notch pathway genes had independent and joint predictive roles in survival of cutaneous melanoma patients. The most significant variant was NCOR2 rs2342924 T>C (adjusted HR, 2.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.73-4.23; Ptrend = 9.62 × 10(-7)), followed by NCSTN rs1124379 G>A, NCOR2 rs10846684 G>A, and MAML2 rs7953425 G>A (Ptrend = 0.005, 0.005, and 0.013, respectively). The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed that area under the curve was significantly increased after adding the combined unfavorable genotype score to the model containing the known clinicopathologic factors. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that SNPs in Notch pathway genes may be predictors of cutaneous melanoma disease-specific survival. IMPACT: Our discovery offers a translational potential for using genetic variants in Notch pathway genes as a genotype score of biomarkers for developing an improved prognostic assessment and personalized management of cutaneous melanoma patients.

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Aims: Measurement of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is an important indicator of glucose control over time. Point-of-care (POC) devices allow for rapid and convenient measurement of HbA1c, greatly facilitating diabetes care. We assessed two POC analyzers in the Peruvian Amazon where laboratory-based HbA1c testing is not available.

Methods: Venous blood samples were collected from 203 individuals from six different Amazonian communities with a wide range of HbA1c, 4.4-9.0% (25-75 mmol/mol). The results of the Afinion AS100 and the DCA Vantage POC analyzers were compared to a central laboratory using the Premier Hb9210 high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method. Imprecision was assessed by performing 14 successive tests of a single blood sample.

Results: The correlation coefficient r for POC and HPLC results was 0.92 for the Afinion and 0.93 for the DCA Vantage. The Afinion generated higher HbA1c results than the HPLC (mean difference = +0.56% [+6 mmol/mol]; p < 0.001), as did the DCA Vantage (mean difference = +0.32% [4 mmol/mol]). The bias observed between POC and HPLC did not vary by HbA1c level for the DCA Vantage (p = 0.190), but it did for the Afinion (p < 0.001). Imprecision results were: CV = 1.75% for the Afinion, CV = 4.01% for the DCA Vantage. Sensitivity was 100% for both devices, specificity was 48.3% for the Afinion and 85.1% for the DCA Vantage, positive predictive value (PPV) was 14.4% for the Afinion and 34.9% for the DCA Vantage, and negative predictive value (NPV) for both devices was 100%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.966 for the Afinion and 0.982 for the DCA Vantage. Agreement between HPLC and POC in classifying diabetes and prediabetes status was slight for the Afinion (Kappa = 0.12) and significantly different (McNemar’s statistic = 89; p < 0.001), and moderate for the DCA Vantage (Kappa = 0.45) and significantly different (McNemar’s statistic = 28; p < 0.001).

Conclusions: Despite significant variation of HbA1c results between the Afinion and DCA Vantage analyzers compared to HPLC, we conclude that both analyzers should be considered in health clinics in the Peruvian Amazon for therapeutic adjustments if healthcare workers are aware of the differences relative to testing in a clinical laboratory. However, imprecision and bias were not low enough to recommend either device for screening purposes, and the local prevalence of anemia and malaria may interfere with diagnostic determinations for a substantial portion of the population.

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Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted.