RNA Virus Evolution: a Cross-scale, Disease Dynamic Perspective

RNA viruses are an important cause of global morbidity and mortality. The rapid evolutionary rates of RNA virus pathogens, caused by high replication rates and error-prone polymerases, can make the pathogens difficult to control. RNA viruses can undergo immune escape within their hosts and develop resistance to the treatment and vaccines we design to fight them. Understanding the spread and evolution of RNA pathogens is essential for reducing human suffering. In this dissertation, I make use of the rapid evolutionary rate of viral pathogens to answer several questions about how RNA viruses spread and evolve. To address each of the questions, I link mathematical techniques for modeling viral population dynamics with phylogenetic and coalescent techniques for analyzing and modeling viral genetic sequences and evolution. The first project uses multi-scale mechanistic modeling to show that decreases in viral substitution rates over the course of an acute infection, combined with the timing of infectious hosts transmitting new infections to susceptible individuals, can account for discrepancies in viral substitution rates in different host populations. The second project combines coalescent models with within-host mathematical models to identify driving evolutionary forces in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The third project compares the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic viral transmission rate variation on viral phylogenies.

Safety and efficacy of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir in black patients with hepatitis C virus infection: A retrospective analysis of phase 3 data.

UNLABELLED: Black patients chronically infected with genotype 1 hepatitis C virus (HCV) have historically had lower rates of response to interferon-based treatment than patients of other races. In the phase 3 ION program, the single-tablet regimen of the NS5A inhibitor ledipasvir and NS5B nucleotide polymerase inhibitor sofosbuvir was shown to be safe and highly effective in the general population. The aim of this study was to evaluate the safety and efficacy of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir in black patients using data from the three open-label ION clinical trials, which evaluated the safety and efficacy of 8, 12, and 24 weeks of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir with or without ribavirin for the treatment of treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients with genotype 1 HCV, including those with compensated cirrhosis. The primary endpoint was sustained virologic response at 12 weeks after the end of therapy (SVR12). For our analysis, rates of SVR12, treatment-emergent adverse events, and graded laboratory abnormalities were analyzed in black versus non-black patients. Of the 1949 patients evaluated, 308 (16%) were black. On average, black patients were older, had higher body mass index, were more likely to be IL28B non-CC, and had a lower serum alanine aminotransferase at baseline than non-black patients. Overall, 95% of black and 97% of non-black patients achieved SVR12. The rate of relapse was 3% in black patients as compared with 2% in non-black patients. The most common adverse events included fatigue, headache, nausea, and insomnia. The majority of adverse events occurred more frequently in the ribavirin-containing arms of the studies. No differences were observed in overall safety by race. CONCLUSION: A once-daily dosage of ledipasvir/sofosbuvir was similarly effective in black and non-black patients with genotype 1 HCV infection. The addition of ribavirin did not appear to increase SVR12 but was associated with higher rates of adverse events.