Can prospect theory explain risk-seeking behavior by terminally ill patients?

Patients with life-threatening conditions sometimes appear to make risky treatment decisions as their condition declines, contradicting the risk-averse behavior predicted by expected utility theory. Prospect theory accommodates such decisions by describing how individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and how they exhibit risk-seeking behavior over losses relative to that point. The authors show that a patient's reference point for his or her health is a key factor in determining which treatment option the patient selects, and they examine under what circumstances the more risky option is selected. The authors argue that patients' reference points may take time to adjust following a change in diagnosis, with implications for predicting under what circumstances a patient may select experimental or conventional therapies or select no treatment.

Hybrid error correction and de novo assembly of single-molecule sequencing reads.

Single-molecule sequencing instruments can generate multikilobase sequences with the potential to greatly improve genome and transcriptome assembly. However, the error rates of single-molecule reads are high, which has limited their use thus far to resequencing bacteria. To address this limitation, we introduce a correction algorithm and assembly strategy that uses short, high-fidelity sequences to correct the error in single-molecule sequences. We demonstrate the utility of this approach on reads generated by a PacBio RS instrument from phage, prokaryotic and eukaryotic whole genomes, including the previously unsequenced genome of the parrot Melopsittacus undulatus, as well as for RNA-Seq reads of the corn (Zea mays) transcriptome. Our long-read correction achieves >99.9% base-call accuracy, leading to substantially better assemblies than current sequencing strategies: in the best example, the median contig size was quintupled relative to high-coverage, second-generation assemblies. Greater gains are predicted if read lengths continue to increase, including the prospect of single-contig bacterial chromosome assembly.

Geographic Expansion of Lyme Disease in the Southeastern United States, 2000-2014.

Background.  The majority of Lyme disease cases in the United States are acquired on the east coast between northern Virginia and New England. In recent years the geographic extent of Lyme disease has been expanding, raising the prospect of Lyme disease becoming endemic in the southeast. Methods.  We collected confirmed and probable cases of Lyme disease from 2000 through 2014 from the Virginia Department of Health and North Carolina Department of Public Health and entered them in a geographic information system. We performed spatial and spatiotemporal cluster analyses to characterize Lyme disease expansion. Results.  There was a marked increase in Lyme disease cases in Virginia, particularly from 2007 onwards. Northern Virginia experienced intensification and geographic expansion of Lyme disease cases. The most notable area of expansion was to the southwest along the Appalachian Mountains with development of a new disease cluster in the southern Virginia mountain region. Conclusions.  The geographic distribution of Lyme disease cases significantly expanded in Virginia between 2000 and 2014, particularly southward in the Virginia mountain ranges. If these trends continue, North Carolina can expect autochthonous Lyme disease transmission in its mountain region in the coming years.

The Images of Democracy: Tocqueville and American Exceptionalism

This thesis addresses how Alexis de Tocqueville’s political thought is related to American Exceptionalism. First, I illustrate the multiple meanings of the concept of American Exceptionalism and in what sense it is indebted to Tocqueville. Second, I articulate how the historical background and personal qualities of Tocqueville contribute to the success of his masterpiece Democracy in America. In the main part, by analyzing Tocqueville’s Democracy in America and other writings on America, I argue that he indeed reveals America as exceptional and increasingly recognizes this idea through a process of intellectual development. An elaboration on Tocqueville’s theoretical contribution to the discussion of American Exceptionalism can reveal the different images of modern democracy as he suggests and how they would influence the prospect of human freedom.

X-Ray Diffraction Study of Boron Produced by Pyrolysis of Boron Tribromide

The goal of this research was to determine the composition of boron deposits produced by pyrolysis of boron tribromide, and to use the results to (a) determine the experimental conditions (reaction temperature, etc.) necessary to produce alpha-rhombohedral boron and (b) guide the development/refinement of the pyrolysis experiments such that large, high purity crystals of alpha-rhombohedral boron can be produced with consistency. Developing a method for producing large, high purity alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals is of interest because such crystals could potentially be used to achieve an alpha-rhombohedral boron based neutron detector design (a solid-state detector) that could serve as an alternative to existing neutron detector technologies. The supply of neutron detectors in the United States has been hampered for a number of years due to the current shortage of helium-3 (a gas used in many existing neutron detector technologies); the development of alternative neutron detector technology such as an alpha-rhombohedral boron based detector would help provide a more sustainable supply of neutron detectors in this country. In addition, the prospect/concept of an alpha-rhombohedral boron based neutron detector is attractive because it offers the possibility of achieving a design that is smaller, longer life, less power consuming, and potentially more sensitive than existing neutron detectors. The main difficulty associated with creating an alpha-rhombohedral boron based neutron detector is that producing large, high purity crystals of alpha-rhombohedral boron is extremely challenging. Past researchers have successfully made alpha-rhombohedral boron via a number of methods, but no one has developed a method for consistently producing large, high purity crystals. Alpha-rhombohedral boron is difficult to make because it is only stable at temperatures below around 1100-1200 °C, its formation is very sensitive to impurities, and the conditions necessary for its formation are not fully understood or agreed upon in the literature. In this research, the method of pyrolysis of boron tribromide (hydrogen reduction of boron tribromide) was used to deposit boron on a tantalum filament. The goal was to refine this method, or potentially use it in combination with a second method (amorphous boron crystallization), to the point where it is possible to grow large, high purity alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals with consistency. A pyrolysis apparatus was designed and built, and a number of trials were run to determine the conditions (reaction temperature, etc.) necessary for alpha-rhombohedral boron production. This work was focused on the x-ray diffraction analysis of the boron deposits; x-ray diffraction was performed on a number of samples to determine the types of boron (and other compounds) formed in each trial and to guide the choices of test conditions for subsequent trials. It was found that at low reaction temperatures (in the range of around 830-950 °C), amorphous boron was the primary form of boron produced. Reaction temperatures in the range of around 950-1000 °C yielded various combinations of crystalline boron and amorphous boron. In the first trial performed at a temperature of 950 °C, a mix of amorphous boron and alpha-rhombohedral boron was formed. Using a scanning electron microscope, it was possible to see small alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals (on the order of ~1 micron in size) embedded in the surface of the deposit. In subsequent trials carried out at reaction temperatures in the range of 950 °C – 1000 °C, it was found that various combinations of alpha-rhombohedral boron, beta-rhombohedral boron, and amorphous boron were produced; the results tended to be unpredictable (alpha-rhombohedral boron was not produced in every trial), and the factors leading to success/failure were difficult to pinpoint. These results illustrate how sensitive of a process producing alpha-rhombohedral boron can be, and indicate that further improvements to the test apparatus and test conditions (for example, higher purity/cleanliness) may be necessary to optimize the boron deposition. Although alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals of large size were not achieved, this research was successful in (a) developing a pyrolysis apparatus and test procedure that can serve as a platform for future testing, (b) determining reaction temperatures at which alpha-rhombohedral boron can form, and (c) developing a consistent process for analyzing the boron deposits and determining their composition. Further experimentation is necessary to achieve a pyrolysis apparatus and test procedure that can yield large alpha-rhombohedral boron crystals with consistency.

King Democracy: Do Democratic Nations Mitigate Conflict Over Transboundary Freshwater Resources Better Than Other Nations?

The prospect of water wars and conflict over water are ideas that are frequently dramatized in media and also studied by scholars. It is well-established that bona fide wars are not started over water resources, but conflict over water does exist and is not well understood. One would suppose, as scholars often do, that dyads composed of two democratic nations would be the best at mitigating conflict and promoting cooperation over freshwater resources. General conflict research supports that supposition, as does the argument that democracies must be best at avoiding conflicts over resources because they excel at distributing public goods. This study provides empirical evidence showing how interstate dyads composed of various governance types conflict and cooperate over general water and water quantity issues relative to each other. After evaluating the water conflict mitigating ability of democratic-democratic, democratic-autocratic, and autocratic-autocratic dyads, this study found that democracy-autocracy dyads are less likely to cooperate over general water issues and water quantity issues than the other two dyad types. Nothing certain can be said about how the three dyad types compare to each other in terms of likelihood to conflict over water quantity issues. However, two-autocracy dyads seem to be most likely to cooperate over water quantity issues. These findings support the established belief that democratic-autocratic pairs struggle to cooperate while also encouraging greater scrutiny of the belief that democracies must be best at cooperating over water resources.

Food Swamps, Obesity & Health Zoning Restrictions on Fast Food Restaurants

Protecting public health is the most legitimate use of zoning, and yet there is minimal progress in applying it to the obesity problem. Zoning could potentially be used to address both unhealthy and healthy food retailers, but lack of evidence regarding the impact of zoning and public opinion on zoning changes are barriers to implementing zoning restrictions on fast food on a larger scale. My dissertation addresses these gaps in our understanding of health zoning as a policy option for altering built, food environments.

Chapter 1 examines the relationship between food swamps and obesity and whether spatial mapping might be useful in identifying priority geographic areas for zoning interventions. I employ an instrumental variables (IV) strategy to correct for the endogeneity problems associated with food environments, namely that individuals may self-select into certain neighborhoods and may consider food availability in their decision process. I utilize highway exits as a source of exogenous variation .Using secondary data from the USDA Food Environment Atlas, ordinary least squares (OLS) and IV regression models were employed to analyze cross-sectional associations between local food environments and the prevalence of obesity. I find even after controlling for food desert effects, food swamps have a positive, statistically significant effect on adult obesity rates.

Chapter 2 applies theories of message framing and prospect theory to the emerging discussion around health zoning policies targeting food environments and to explore public opinion toward a list of potential zoning restrictions on fast-food restaurants (beyond moratoriums on new establishments). In order to explore causality, I employ an online survey experiment manipulating exposure to vignettes with different message frames about health zoning restrictions with two national samples of adult Americans age 18 and over (N1=2,768 and N2=3,236). The second sample oversamples Black Americans (N=1,000) and individuals with high school as their highest level of education. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of six conditions where they were primed with different message frames about the benefits of zoning restrictions on fast food retailers. Participants were then asked to indicate their support for six zoning policies on a Likert scale. Subjects also answered questions about their food store access, eating behaviors, health status and perceptions of food stores by type.

I find that a message frame about Nutrition and increasing Equity in the food system was particularly effective at increasing support for health zoning policies targeting fast food outlets across policy categories (Conditional, Youth-related, Performance and Incentive) and across racial groups. This finding is consistent with an influential environmental justice scholar’s description of “injustice frames” as effective in mobilizing supporters around environmental issues (Taylor 2000). I extend this rationale to food environment obesity prevention efforts and identify Nutrition combined with Equity frames as an arguably universal campaign strategy for bolstering public support of zoning restrictions on fast food retailers.

Bridging my findings from both Chapters 1 and 2, using food swamps as a spatial metaphor may work to identify priority areas for policy intervention, but only if there is an equitable distribution of resources and mobilization efforts to improve consumer food environments. If the structural forces which ration access to land-use planning persist (arguably including the media as gatekeepers to information and producers of message frames) disparities in obesity are likely to widen.