Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Real-Time Decision Making and Aggressive Behavior in Youth: A Heuristic Model of Response Evaluation and Decision (RED).

Considerable scientific and intervention attention has been paid to judgment and decision-making systems associated with aggressive behavior in youth. However, most empirical studies have investigated social-cognitive correlates of stable child and adolescent aggressiveness, and less is known about real-time decision making to engage in aggressive behavior. A model of real-time decision making must incorporate both impulsive actions and rational thought. The present paper advances a process model (response evaluation and decision; RED) of real-time behavioral judgments and decision making in aggressive youths with mathematic representations that may be used to quantify response strength. These components are a heuristic to describe decision making, though it is doubtful that individuals always mentally complete these steps. RED represents an organization of social-cognitive operations believed to be active during the response decision step of social information processing. The model posits that RED processes can be circumvented through impulsive responding. This article provides a description and integration of thoughtful, rational decision making and nonrational impulsivity in aggressive behavioral interactions.

Atherosclerosis: Viewing the problem from a different perspective including possible treatment options

This paper proposes that atherosclerosis is initiated by a signaling event that deposits calcium hydroxyapatite (Ca-HAP). This event is preceded by a loss of mechanical structure in the arterial wall. After Ca-HAP has been deposited, it is unlikely that it will be reabsorbed because the solubility product constant (K sp) is very small, and the large stores of Ca +2 and PO 4-3 in the bones oppose any attempts to dissolve Ca-HAP by decreasing the common ions. The hydroxide ion (OH -) of Ca-HAP can be displaced in nature by fluoride (F -) and carbonate (CO 3-2) ions, and it is proposed that anions associated with cholesterol ester hydrolysis and, in very small quantities, the enolate of 7-ketocholesterol could also displace the OH -of Ca-HAP, forming an ionic bond. The free energy of hydration of Ca-HAP at 310 K is most likely negative, and the ionic radii of the anions associated with the hydrolysis of cholesterol ester are compatible with the substitution. Furthermore, examination of the pathology of atherosclerotic lesions by Raman and NMR spectroscopy and confocal microscopy supports deposition of Ca-HAP associated with cholesterol. Investigating the affinity of intermediates of cholesterol hydrolysis for Ca-HAP compared to lipoproteins such as HDL, LDL, and VLDL using isothermic titration calorimetry could add proof of this concept and may lead to the development of a new class of medications targeted at the deposition of cholesterol within Ca-HAP. Treatment of acute ischemic events as a consequence of atherosclerosis with denitrogenation and oxygenation is discussed. © the author(s), publisher and licensee Libertas Academica Ltd.

Making Young Voters: The Impact of Preregistration on Youth Turnout

© 2016 by the Midwest Political Science Association.Recent research has cast doubt on the potential for various electoral reforms to increase voter turnout. In this article, we examine the effectiveness of preregistration laws, which allow young citizens to register before being eligible to vote. We use two empirical approaches to evaluate the impact of preregistration on youth turnout. First, we implement difference-in-difference and lag models to bracket the causal effect of preregistration implementation using the 2000-2012 Current Population Survey. Second, focusing on the state of Florida, we leverage a discontinuity based on date of birth to estimate the effect of increased preregistration exposure on the turnout of young registrants. In both approaches, we find preregistration increases voter turnout, with equal effectiveness for various subgroups in the electorate. More broadly, observed patterns suggest that campaign context and supporting institutions may help to determine when and if electoral reforms are effective.