4 resultados para Probabilistic metrics

em Duke University


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I discuss geometry and normal forms for pseudo-Riemannian metrics with parallel spinor fields in some interesting dimensions. I also discuss the interaction of these conditions for parallel spinor fields with the condition that the Ricci tensor vanish (which, for pseudo-Riemannian manifolds, is not an automatic consequence of the existence of a nontrivial parallel spinor field).

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The work presented in this dissertation is focused on applying engineering methods to develop and explore probabilistic survival models for the prediction of decompression sickness in US NAVY divers. Mathematical modeling, computational model development, and numerical optimization techniques were employed to formulate and evaluate the predictive quality of models fitted to empirical data. In Chapters 1 and 2 we present general background information relevant to the development of probabilistic models applied to predicting the incidence of decompression sickness. The remainder of the dissertation introduces techniques developed in an effort to improve the predictive quality of probabilistic decompression models and to reduce the difficulty of model parameter optimization.

The first project explored seventeen variations of the hazard function using a well-perfused parallel compartment model. Models were parametrically optimized using the maximum likelihood technique. Model performance was evaluated using both classical statistical methods and model selection techniques based on information theory. Optimized model parameters were overall similar to those of previously published Results indicated that a novel hazard function definition that included both ambient pressure scaling and individually fitted compartment exponent scaling terms.

We developed ten pharmacokinetic compartmental models that included explicit delay mechanics to determine if predictive quality could be improved through the inclusion of material transfer lags. A fitted discrete delay parameter augmented the inflow to the compartment systems from the environment. Based on the observation that symptoms are often reported after risk accumulation begins for many of our models, we hypothesized that the inclusion of delays might improve correlation between the model predictions and observed data. Model selection techniques identified two models as having the best overall performance, but comparison to the best performing model without delay and model selection using our best identified no delay pharmacokinetic model both indicated that the delay mechanism was not statistically justified and did not substantially improve model predictions.

Our final investigation explored parameter bounding techniques to identify parameter regions for which statistical model failure will not occur. When a model predicts a no probability of a diver experiencing decompression sickness for an exposure that is known to produce symptoms, statistical model failure occurs. Using a metric related to the instantaneous risk, we successfully identify regions where model failure will not occur and identify the boundaries of the region using a root bounding technique. Several models are used to demonstrate the techniques, which may be employed to reduce the difficulty of model optimization for future investigations.

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The central idea of this dissertation is to interpret certain invariants constructed from Laplace spectral data on a compact Riemannian manifold as regularized integrals of closed differential forms on the space of Riemannian metrics, or more generally on a space of metrics on a vector bundle. We apply this idea to both the Ray-Singer analytic torsion

and the eta invariant, explaining their dependence on the metric used to define them with a Stokes' theorem argument. We also introduce analytic multi-torsion, a generalization of analytic torsion, in the context of certain manifolds with local product structure; we prove that it is metric independent in a suitable sense.