The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs.

The research and development costs of 68 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per new drug is 403 million US dollars (2000 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 11% yields a total pre-approval cost estimate of 802 million US dollars (2000 dollars). When compared to the results of an earlier study with a similar methodology, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 7.4% above general price inflation.

Designing Climate Mitigation Policy

This paper provides an exhaustive review of critical issues in the design of climate mitigation policy by pulling together key findings and controversies from diverse literatures on mitigation costs, damage valuation, policy instrument choice, technological innovation, and international climate policy. We begin with the broadest issue of how high assessments suggest the near and medium term price on greenhouse gases would need to be, both under cost-effective stabilization of global climate and under net benefit maximization or Pigouvian emissions pricing. The remainder of the paper focuses on the appropriate scope of regulation, issues in policy instrument choice, complementary technology policy, and international policy architectures.

Flow stabilization with active hydrodynamic cloaks

We demonstrate that fluid flow cloaking solutions, based on active hydrodynamic metamaterials, exist for two-dimensional flows past a cylinder in a wide range of Reynolds numbers (Re's), up to approximately 200. Within the framework of the classical Brinkman equation for homogenized porous flow, we demonstrate using two different methods that such cloaked flows can be dynamically stable for Re's in the range of 5-119. The first highly efficient method is based on a linearization of the Brinkman-Navier-Stokes equation and finding the eigenfrequencies of the least stable eigenperturbations; the second method is a direct numerical integration in the time domain. We show that, by suppressing the von Kármán vortex street in the weakly turbulent wake, porous flow cloaks can raise the critical Reynolds number up to about 120 or five times greater than for a bare uncloaked cylinder. © 2012 American Physical Society.