Adaptive Mixture Modelling Metropolis Methods for Bayesian Analysis of Non-linear State-Space Models.

We describe a strategy for Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space models involving batch analysis for inference on dynamic, latent state variables and fixed model parameters. The key innovation is a Metropolis-Hastings method for the time series of state variables based on sequential approximation of filtering and smoothing densities using normal mixtures. These mixtures are propagated through the non-linearities using an accurate, local mixture approximation method, and we use a regenerating procedure to deal with potential degeneracy of mixture components. This provides accurate, direct approximations to sequential filtering and retrospective smoothing distributions, and hence a useful construction of global Metropolis proposal distributions for simulation of posteriors for the set of states. This analysis is embedded within a Gibbs sampler to include uncertain fixed parameters. We give an example motivated by an application in systems biology. Supplemental materials provide an example based on a stochastic volatility model as well as MATLAB code.

Nonholonomically Constrained Dynamics and Optimization of Rolling Isolation Systems

Rolling Isolation Systems provide a simple and effective means for protecting components from horizontal floor vibrations. In these systems a platform rolls on four steel balls which, in turn, rest within shallow bowls. The trajectories of the balls is uniquely determined by the horizontal and rotational velocity components of the rolling platform, and thus provides nonholonomic constraints. In general, the bowls are not parabolic, so the potential energy function of this system is not quadratic. This thesis presents the application of Gauss's Principle of Least Constraint to the modeling of rolling isolation platforms. The equations of motion are described in terms of a redundant set of constrained coordinates. Coordinate accelerations are uniquely determined at any point in time via Gauss's Principle by solving a linearly constrained quadratic minimization. In the absence of any modeled damping, the equations of motion conserve energy. This mathematical model is then used to find the bowl profile that minimizes response acceleration subject to displacement constraint.