Using decision analysis to improve malaria control policy making.

Malaria and other vector-borne diseases represent a significant and growing burden in many tropical countries. Successfully addressing these threats will require policies that expand access to and use of existing control methods, such as insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) and artemesinin combination therapies (ACTs) for malaria, while weighing the costs and benefits of alternative approaches over time. This paper argues that decision analysis provides a valuable framework for formulating such policies and combating the emergence and re-emergence of malaria and other diseases. We outline five challenges that policy makers and practitioners face in the struggle against malaria, and demonstrate how decision analysis can help to address and overcome these challenges. A prototype decision analysis framework for malaria control in Tanzania is presented, highlighting the key components that a decision support tool should include. Developing and applying such a framework can promote stronger and more effective linkages between research and policy, ultimately helping to reduce the burden of malaria and other vector-borne diseases.

Bayesian Emulation for Sequential Modeling, Inference and Decision Analysis

The advances in three related areas of state-space modeling, sequential Bayesian learning, and decision analysis are addressed, with the statistical challenges of scalability and associated dynamic sparsity. The key theme that ties the three areas is Bayesian model emulation: solving challenging analysis/computational problems using creative model emulators. This idea defines theoretical and applied advances in non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space modeling, dynamic sparsity, decision analysis and statistical computation, across linked contexts of multivariate time series and dynamic networks studies. Examples and applications in financial time series and portfolio analysis, macroeconomics and internet studies from computational advertising demonstrate the utility of the core methodological innovations.

Chapter 1 summarizes the three areas/problems and the key idea of emulating in those areas. Chapter 2 discusses the sequential analysis of latent threshold models with use of emulating models that allows for analytical filtering to enhance the efficiency of posterior sampling. Chapter 3 examines the emulator model in decision analysis, or the synthetic model, that is equivalent to the loss function in the original minimization problem, and shows its performance in the context of sequential portfolio optimization. Chapter 4 describes the method for modeling the steaming data of counts observed on a large network that relies on emulating the whole, dependent network model by independent, conjugate sub-models customized to each set of flow. Chapter 5 reviews those advances and makes the concluding remarks.

Improving the generation of decision objectives

Real decision makers exhibit significant shortcomings in the generation of objectives for decisions that they face. Prior research has illustrated the magnitude of this shortcoming but not its causes. In this paper, we identify two distinct impediments to the generation of decision objectives: not thinking broadly enough about the range of relevant objectives, and not thinking deeply enough to articulate every objective within the range that is considered. To test these explanations and explore ways of stimulating a more comprehensive set of objectives, we present three experiments involving a variety of interventions: the provision of sample objectives, organization of objectives by category, and direct challenges to do better, with or without a warning that important objectives are missing. The use of category names and direct challenges with a warning both led to improvements in the quantity of objectives generated without impacting their quality; other interventions yielded less improvement. We conclude by discussing the relevance of our findings to decision analysis and offering prescriptive implications for the elicitation of decision objectives. © 2010 INFORMS.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the diagnosis of meniscus tears.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic imaging represents the fastest growing segment of costs in the US health system. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of alternative diagnostic approaches to meniscus tears of the knee, a highly prevalent disease that traditionally relies on MRI as part of the diagnostic strategy. PURPOSE: To identify the most efficient strategy for the diagnosis of meniscus tears. STUDY DESIGN: Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 1. METHODS: A simple-decision model run as a cost-utility analysis was constructed to assess the value added by MRI in various combinations with patient history and physical examination (H&P). The model examined traumatic and degenerative tears in 2 distinct settings: primary care and orthopaedic sports medicine clinic. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: In both practice settings, H&P alone was widely preferred for degenerative meniscus tears. Performing MRI to confirm a positive H&P was preferred for traumatic tears in both practice settings, with a willingness to pay of less than US$50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Performing an MRI for all patients was not preferred in any reasonable clinical scenario. The prevalence of a meniscus tear in a clinician's patient population was influential. For traumatic tears, MRI to confirm a positive H&P was preferred when prevalence was less than 46.7%, with H&P preferred above that. For degenerative tears, H&P was preferred until the prevalence reaches 74.2%, and then MRI to confirm a negative was the preferred strategy. In both settings, MRI to confirm positive physical examination led to more than a 10-fold lower rate of unnecessary surgeries than did any other strategy, while MRI to confirm negative physical examination led to a 2.08 and 2.26 higher rate than H&P alone in primary care and orthopaedic clinics, respectively. CONCLUSION: For all practitioners, H&P is the preferred strategy for the suspected degenerative meniscus tear. An MRI to confirm a positive H&P is preferred for traumatic tears for all practitioners. Consideration should be given to implementing alternative diagnostic strategies as well as enhancing provider education in physical examination skills to improve the reliability of H&P as a diagnostic test. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Alternative diagnostic strategies that do not include the use of MRI may result in decreased health care costs without harm to the patient and could possibly reduce unnecessary procedures.

Factors influencing malaria control policy-making in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Policy decisions for malaria control are often difficult to make as decision-makers have to carefully consider an array of options and respond to the needs of a large number of stakeholders. This study assessed the factors and specific objectives that influence malaria control policy decisions, as a crucial first step towards developing an inclusive malaria decision analysis support tool (MDAST). METHODS: Country-specific stakeholder engagement activities using structured questionnaires were carried out in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. The survey respondents were drawn from a non-random purposeful sample of stakeholders, targeting individuals in ministries and non-governmental organizations whose policy decisions and actions are likely to have an impact on the status of malaria. Summary statistics across the three countries are presented in aggregate. RESULTS: Important findings aggregated across countries included a belief that donor preferences and agendas were exerting too much influence on malaria policies in the countries. Respondents on average also thought that some relevant objectives such as engaging members of parliament by the agency responsible for malaria control in a particular country were not being given enough consideration in malaria decision-making. Factors found to influence decisions regarding specific malaria control strategies included donor agendas, costs, effectiveness of interventions, health and environmental impacts, compliance and/acceptance, financial sustainability, and vector resistance to insecticides. CONCLUSION: Malaria control decision-makers in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania take into account health and environmental impacts as well as cost implications of different intervention strategies. Further engagement of government legislators and other policy makers is needed in order to increase funding from domestic sources, reduce donor dependence, sustain interventions and consolidate current gains in malaria.

Advanced Applications of 3D Dosimetry and 3D Printing in Radiation Therapy

As complex radiotherapy techniques become more readily-practiced, comprehensive 3D dosimetry is a growing necessity for advanced quality assurance. However, clinical implementation has been impeded by a wide variety of factors, including the expense of dedicated optical dosimeter readout tools, high operational costs, and the overall difficulty of use. To address these issues, a novel dry-tank optical CT scanner was designed for PRESAGE 3D dosimeter readout, relying on 3D printed components and omitting costly parts from preceding optical scanners. This work details the design, prototyping, and basic commissioning of the Duke Integrated-lens Optical Scanner (DIOS).

The convex scanning geometry was designed in ScanSim, an in-house Monte Carlo optical ray-tracing simulation. ScanSim parameters were used to build a 3D rendering of a convex ‘solid tank’ for optical-CT, which is capable of collimating a point light source into telecentric geometry without significant quantities of refractive-index matched fluid. The model was 3D printed, processed, and converted into a negative mold via rubber casting to produce a transparent polyurethane scanning tank. The DIOS was assembled with the solid tank, a 3W red LED light source, a computer-controlled rotation stage, and a 12-bit CCD camera. Initial optical phantom studies show negligible spatial inaccuracies in 2D projection images and 3D tomographic reconstructions. A PRESAGE 3D dose measurement for a 4-field box treatment plan from Eclipse shows 95% of voxels passing gamma analysis at 3%/3mm criteria. Gamma analysis between tomographic images of the same dosimeter in the DIOS and DLOS systems show 93.1% agreement at 5%/1mm criteria. From this initial study, the DIOS has demonstrated promise as an economically-viable optical-CT scanner. However, further improvements will be necessary to fully develop this system into an accurate and reliable tool for advanced QA.

Pre-clinical animal studies are used as a conventional means of translational research, as a midpoint between in-vitro cell studies and clinical implementation. However, modern small animal radiotherapy platforms are primitive in comparison with conventional linear accelerators. This work also investigates a series of 3D printed tools to expand the treatment capabilities of the X-RAD 225Cx orthovoltage irradiator, and applies them to a feasibility study of hippocampal avoidance in rodent whole-brain radiotherapy.

As an alternative material to lead, a novel 3D-printable tungsten-composite ABS plastic, GMASS, was tested to create precisely-shaped blocks. Film studies show virtually all primary radiation at 225 kVp can be attenuated by GMASS blocks of 0.5cm thickness. A state-of-the-art software, BlockGen, was used to create custom hippocampus-shaped blocks from medical image data, for any possible axial treatment field arrangement. A custom 3D printed bite block was developed to immobilize and position a supine rat for optimal hippocampal conformity. An immobilized rat CT with digitally-inserted blocks was imported into the SmART-Plan Monte-Carlo simulation software to determine the optimal beam arrangement. Protocols with 4 and 7 equally-spaced fields were considered as viable treatment options, featuring improved hippocampal conformity and whole-brain coverage when compared to prior lateral-opposed protocols. Custom rodent-morphic PRESAGE dosimeters were developed to accurately reflect these treatment scenarios, and a 3D dosimetry study was performed to confirm the SmART-Plan simulations. Measured doses indicate significant hippocampal sparing and moderate whole-brain coverage.