Survival expectations of the obese: Is excess mortality reflected in perceptions?

OBJECTIVE: This study compared self-reported subjective life expectancy (i.e., probability of living to age 75) for normal-weight, overweight, and obese weight groups to examine whether individuals are internalizing information about the health risks due to excessive weight. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, a total of 9035 individuals 51 to 61 years old were analyzed by BMI category. The primary outcome measure was individuals' reports about their own expectations of survival to age 75. Absolute and relative risks of survival were compared with published estimates of survival to age 75. RESULTS: Consistently, higher levels of BMI were associated with lower self-estimated survival probabilities. Differences relative to normal weight ranged from 4.9% (p < 0.01) for male nonsmokers to 8.8% (p < 0.001) for female nonsmokers. However, these differences were substantially less than those obtained from published survival curve estimates, suggesting that obese individuals tended to underestimate mortality risks. DISCUSSION: Individuals appeared to underestimate the mortality risks of excessive weight; thus, knowledge campaigns about the risks of obesity should remain a top priority.

Factors associated with mortality in transplant patients with invasive aspergillosis.

BACKGROUND: Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) and solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. The purpose of this study was to evaluate factors associated with mortality in transplant patients with IA. METHODS: Transplant patients from 23 US centers were enrolled from March 2001 to October 2005 as part of the Transplant Associated Infection Surveillance Network. IA cases were identified prospectively in this cohort through March 2006, and data were collected. Factors associated with 12-week all-cause mortality were determined by logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Six-hundred forty-two cases of proven or probable IA were evaluated, of which 317 (49.4%) died by the study endpoint. All-cause mortality was greater in HSCT patients (239 [57.5%] of 415) than in SOT patients (78 [34.4%] of 227; P<.001). Independent poor prognostic factors in HSCT patients were neutropenia, renal insufficiency, hepatic insufficiency, early-onset IA, proven IA, and methylprednisolone use. In contrast, white race was associated with decreased risk of death. Among SOT patients, hepatic insufficiency, malnutrition, and central nervous system disease were poor prognostic indicators, whereas prednisone use was associated with decreased risk of death. Among HSCT or SOT patients who received antifungal therapy, use of an amphotericin B preparation as part of initial therapy was associated with increased risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: There are multiple variables associated with survival in transplant patients with IA. Understanding these prognostic factors may assist in the development of treatment algorithms and clinical trials.

Early clopidogrel versus prasugrel use among contemporary STEMI and NSTEMI patients in the US: insights from the National Cardiovascular Data Registry.

BACKGROUND: P2Y12 antagonist therapy improves outcomes in acute myocardial infarction (MI) patients. Novel agents in this class are now available in the US. We studied the introduction of prasugrel into contemporary MI practice to understand the appropriateness of its use and assess for changes in antiplatelet management practices. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using ACTION Registry-GWTG (Get-with-the-Guidelines), we evaluated patterns of P2Y12 antagonist use within 24 hours of admission in 100 228 ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 158 492 Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients at 548 hospitals between October 2009 and September 2012. Rates of early P2Y12 antagonist use were approximately 90% among STEMI and 57% among NSTEMI patients. From 2009 to 2012, prasugrel use increased significantly from 3% to 18% (5% to 30% in STEMI; 2% to 10% in NSTEMI; P for trend <0.001 for all). During the same period, we observed a decrease in use of early but not discharge P2Y12 antagonist among NSTEMI patients. Although contraindicated, 3.0% of patients with prior stroke received prasugrel. Prasugrel was used in 1.9% of patients ≥75 years and 4.5% of patients with weight <60 kg. In both STEMI and NSTEMI, prasugrel was most frequently used in patients at the lowest predicted risk for bleeding and mortality. Despite lack of supporting evidence, prasugrel was initiated before cardiac catheterization in 18% of NSTEMI patients. CONCLUSIONS: With prasugrel as an antiplatelet treatment option, contemporary practice shows low uptake of prasugrel and delays in P2Y12 antagonist initiation among NSTEMI patients. We also note concerning evidence of inappropriate use of prasugrel, and inadequate targeting of this more potent therapy to maximize the benefit/risk ratio.

Ventricular conduction and long-term heart failure outcomes and mortality in African Americans: insights from the Jackson Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: QRS prolongation is associated with adverse outcomes in mostly white populations, but its clinical significance is not well established for other groups. We investigated the association between QRS duration and mortality in African Americans. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from 5146 African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study stratified by QRS duration on baseline 12-lead ECG. We defined QRS prolongation as QRS≥100 ms. We assessed the association between QRS duration and all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards models and reported the cumulative incidence of heart failure hospitalization. We identified factors associated with the development of QRS prolongation in patients with normal baseline QRS. At baseline, 30% (n=1528) of participants had QRS prolongation. The cumulative incidences of mortality and heart failure hospitalization were greater with versus without baseline QRS prolongation: 12.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.0-14.4) versus 7.1% (95% CI, 6.3-8.0) and 8.2% (95% CI, 6.9-9.7) versus 4.4% (95% CI, 3.7-5.1), respectively. After risk adjustment, QRS prolongation was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.56; P=0.02). There was a linear relationship between QRS duration and mortality (hazard ratio per 10 ms increase, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12). Older age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, lower ejection fraction, left ventricular hypertrophy, and left ventricular dilatation were associated with the development of QRS prolongation. CONCLUSIONS: QRS prolongation in African Americans was associated with increased mortality and heart failure hospitalization. Factors associated with developing QRS prolongation included age, male sex, prior myocardial infarction, and left ventricular structural abnormalities.

Outcomes and Predictors of Mortality in Neurosurgical Patients at Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital

Background:

Knowing the scope of neurosurgical disease at Mbarara Hospital is critical for infrastructure planning, education and training. In this study, we aim to evaluate the neurosurgical outcomes and identify predictors of mortality in order to potentiate platforms for more effective interventions and inform future research efforts at Mbarara Hospital.

Methods:

This is retrospective chart review including patients of all ages with a neurosurgical disease or injury presenting to Mbarara Regional Referral Hospital (MRRH) between January 2012 to September 2015. Descriptive statistics were presented. A univariate analysis was used to obtain the odds ratios of mortality and 95% confidence intervals. Predictors of mortality were determined using multivariate logistic regression model.

Results:

A total of 1876 charts were reviewed. Of these, 1854 (had complete data and were?) were included in the analysis. The overall mortality rate was 12.75%; the mortality rates among all persons who underwent a neurosurgical procedure was 9.72%, and was 13.68% among those who did not undergo a neurosurgical procedure. Over 50% of patients were between 19 and 40 years old and the majority of were males (76.10%). The overall median length of stay was 5 days. Of all neurosurgical admissions, 87% were trauma patients. In comparison to mild head injury, closed head injury and intracranial hematoma patients were 5 (95% CI: 3.77, 8.26) and 2.5 times (95% CI: 1.64,3.98) more likely to die respectively. Procedure and diagnostic imaging were independent negative predictors of mortality (P <0.05). While age, ICU admission, admission GCS were positive predictors of mortality (P <0.05).

Conclusions:

The majority of hospital admissions were TBI patients, with RTIs being the most common mechanism of injury. Age, ICU admission, admission GCS, diagnostic imaging and undergoing surgery were independent predictors of mortality. Going forward, further exploration of patient characteristics is necessary to fully describe mortality outcomes and implement resource appropriate interventions that ultimately improve morbidity and mortality.

Information Interventions to Reduce Maternal Mortality in Indonesia

Indonesia consistently records higher levels of maternal mortality than other countries in Southeast Asia with its same level of socioeconomic development. I use a quasi-experimental, difference-in-differences approach to understand whether the role of information on the risk of death in childbirth can change women’s reproductive behaviors. In the first two chapters, I use the Maternal Mortality Module from the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in Indonesia to examine fertility and reproductive behavior responses to a sister’s death in childbirth. Fertility desires remain relatively unchanged but women take up behaviors in subsequent births that avert the risk of maternal death. In the last chapter, I combine population-representative data from the DHS with a village-level census (PODES) on service availability to understand how a village-level intervention to improve obstetric service use using a birth preparedness and complications readiness (BPCR) approach may improve obstetric service use. In this study, I find that the Desa Siaga intervention in Indonesia improved knowledge of the danger signs of complications among women but not among men relative to villages that did not get the program while controlling for endogenous program placement. More women got antenatal care due to the program but use of a skilled birth attendant and postpartum care did not change as a result of the intervention. Both genders report discussing a blood donor in preparation for delivery.

Post-cesarean Section Peritonitis at a Referral Hospital in Rwanda: Factors Associated with Maternal Morbidity and Mortality

Background: Post-cesarean section peritonitis is the leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality at the main referral hospital in Rwanda. Published data on the management of post-cesarean section peritonitis is limited. This study examined predictors of maternal morbidity and mortality for post-cesarean peritonitis.

Methods: We performed a prospective observational cohort study at the University Teaching Hospital Kigali (CHUK) from January 1 until December 31 2015, followed by a retrospective chart review of all subjects with post-cesarean section peritonitis admitted to CHUK from January 1 until December 31, 2014. All patients admitted with the diagnosis of post-cesarean section peritonitis undergoing exploratory laparotomy at CHUK were enrolled. Patients were followed to either discharge or death. Study variables included baseline demographic/clinical characteristics, admission physical exam, intraoperative findings, and management. Data were analyzed using STATA version 14.

Results: Of the 167 patients enrolled, 81 survived without requiring hysterectomy (49%), 49 survived requiring hysterectomy (29%), and 36 died (22%). In the multivariate analysis, severe sepsis was the most significant predictor of mortality (RR=4.0 [2.2-7.7]) and uterine necrosis was the most significant predictor of hysterectomy (RR=6.3 [1.6-25.2]). There were high rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) among the bacterial isolates cultured from intra-abdominal pus, with 52% of bacteria resistant to third-generation cephalosporins.

Conclusions: Post-cesarean section peritonitis carries a high mortality rate in Rwanda. It is also associated with a high rate of hysterectomy. Understanding the disease process and identifying factors associated with outcomes can help guide management during admission.

Measuring the impact of a quality improvement collaboration to decrease maternal mortality in a Ghanaian regional hospital.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of a continuous quality improvement collaboration at Ridge Regional Hospital, Accra, Ghana, that aimed to halve maternal and neonatal deaths. METHODS: In a quasi-experimental, pre- and post-intervention analysis, system deficiencies were analyzed and 97 improvement activities were implemented from January 2007 to December 2011. Data were collected on outcomes and implementation rates of improvement activities. Severity-adjustment models were used to calculate counterfactual mortality ratios. Regression analysis was used to determine the association between improvement activities, staffing, and maternal mortality. RESULTS: Maternal mortality decreased by 22.4% between 2007 and 2011, from 496 to 385 per 100000 deliveries, despite a 50% increase in deliveries and five- and three-fold increases in the proportion of pregnancies complicated by obstetric hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, respectively. Case fatality rates for obstetric hemorrhage and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy decreased from 14.8% to 1.6% and 3.1% to 1.1%, respectively. The mean implementation score was 68% for the 97 improvement processes. Overall, 43 maternal deaths were prevented by the intervention; however, risk severity-adjustment models indicated that an even greater number of deaths was averted. Mortality reduction was correlated with 26 continuous quality improvement activities, and with the number of anesthesia nurses and labor midwives. CONCLUSION: The implementation of quality improvement activities was closely correlated with improved maternal mortality.