Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.

Development and Testing of An Automatic Lung IMRT Planning Algorithm

Knowledge-based radiation treatment is an emerging concept in radiotherapy. It

mainly refers to the technique that can guide or automate treatment planning in

clinic by learning from prior knowledge. Dierent models are developed to realize

it, one of which is proposed by Yuan et al. at Duke for lung IMRT planning. This

model can automatically determine both beam conguration and optimization ob-

jectives with non-coplanar beams based on patient-specic anatomical information.

Although plans automatically generated by this model demonstrate equivalent or

better dosimetric quality compared to clinical approved plans, its validity and gener-

ality are limited due to the empirical assignment to a coecient called angle spread

constraint dened in the beam eciency index used for beam ranking. To eliminate

these limitations, a systematic study on this coecient is needed to acquire evidences

for its optimal value.

To achieve this purpose, eleven lung cancer patients with complex tumor shape

with non-coplanar beams adopted in clinical approved plans were retrospectively

studied in the frame of the automatic lung IMRT treatment algorithm. The primary

and boost plans used in three patients were treated as dierent cases due to the

dierent target size and shape. A total of 14 lung cases, thus, were re-planned using

the knowledge-based automatic lung IMRT planning algorithm by varying angle

spread constraint from 0 to 1 with increment of 0.2. A modied beam angle eciency

index used for navigate the beam selection was adopted. Great eorts were made to assure the quality of plans associated to every angle spread constraint as good

as possible. Important dosimetric parameters for PTV and OARs, quantitatively

re

ecting the plan quality, were extracted from the DVHs and analyzed as a function

of angle spread constraint for each case. Comparisons of these parameters between

clinical plans and model-based plans were evaluated by two-sampled Students t-tests,

and regression analysis on a composite index built on the percentage errors between

dosimetric parameters in the model-based plans and those in the clinical plans as a

function of angle spread constraint was performed.

Results show that model-based plans generally have equivalent or better quality

than clinical approved plans, qualitatively and quantitatively. All dosimetric param-

eters except those for lungs in the automatically generated plans are statistically

better or comparable to those in the clinical plans. On average, more than 15% re-

duction on conformity index and homogeneity index for PTV and V40, V60 for heart

while an 8% and 3% increase on V5, V20 for lungs, respectively, are observed. The

intra-plan comparison among model-based plans demonstrates that plan quality does

not change much with angle spread constraint larger than 0.4. Further examination

on the variation curve of the composite index as a function of angle spread constraint

shows that 0.6 is the optimal value that can result in statistically the best achievable

plans.