3 resultados para Model Participation Rules

em Duke University


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Community-based management and the establishment of marine reserves have been advocated worldwide as means to overcome overexploitation of fisheries. Yet, researchers and managers are divided regarding the effectiveness of these measures. The "tragedy of the commons" model is often accepted as a universal paradigm, which assumes that unless managed by the State or privatized, common-pool resources are inevitably overexploited due to conflicts between the self-interest of individuals and the goals of a group as a whole. Under this paradigm, the emergence and maintenance of effective community-based efforts that include cooperative risky decisions as the establishment of marine reserves could not occur. In this paper, we question these assumptions and show that outcomes of commons dilemmas can be complex and scale-dependent. We studied the evolution and effectiveness of a community-based management effort to establish, monitor, and enforce a marine reserve network in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Our findings build on social and ecological research before (1997-2001), during (2002) and after (2003-2004) the establishment of marine reserves, which included participant observation in >100 fishing trips and meetings, interviews, as well as fishery dependent and independent monitoring. We found that locally crafted and enforced harvesting rules led to a rapid increase in resource abundance. Nevertheless, news about this increase spread quickly at a regional scale, resulting in poaching from outsiders and a subsequent rapid cascading effect on fishing resources and locally-designed rule compliance. We show that cooperation for management of common-pool fisheries, in which marine reserves form a core component of the system, can emerge, evolve rapidly, and be effective at a local scale even in recently organized fisheries. Stakeholder participation in monitoring, where there is a rapid feedback of the systems response, can play a key role in reinforcing cooperation. However, without cross-scale linkages with higher levels of governance, increase of local fishery stocks may attract outsiders who, if not restricted, will overharvest and threaten local governance. Fishers and fishing communities require incentives to maintain their management efforts. Rewarding local effective management with formal cross-scale governance recognition and support can generate these incentives.

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Given the increases in spatial resolution and other improvements in climate modeling capabilities over the last decade since the CMIP3 simulations were completed, CMIP5 provides a unique opportunity to assess scientific understanding of climate variability and change over a range of historical and future conditions. With participation from over 20 modeling groups and more than 40 global models, CMIP5 represents the latest and most ambitious coordinated international climate model intercomparison exercise to date. Observations dating back to 1900 show that the temperatures in the twenty-first century have the largest spatial extent of record breaking and much above normal mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures. The 20-yr return value of the annual maximum or minimum daily temperature is one measure of changes in rare temperature extremes.

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Software-based control of life-critical embedded systems has become increasingly complex, and to a large extent has come to determine the safety of the human being. For example, implantable cardiac pacemakers have over 80,000 lines of code which are responsible for maintaining the heart within safe operating limits. As firmware-related recalls accounted for over 41% of the 600,000 devices recalled in the last decade, there is a need for rigorous model-driven design tools to generate verified code from verified software models. To this effect, we have developed the UPP2SF model-translation tool, which facilitates automatic conversion of verified models (in UPPAAL) to models that may be simulated and tested (in Simulink/Stateflow). We describe the translation rules that ensure correct model conversion, applicable to a large class of models. We demonstrate how UPP2SF is used in themodel-driven design of a pacemaker whosemodel is (a) designed and verified in UPPAAL (using timed automata), (b) automatically translated to Stateflow for simulation-based testing, and then (c) automatically generated into modular code for hardware-level integration testing of timing-related errors. In addition, we show how UPP2SF may be used for worst-case execution time estimation early in the design stage. Using UPP2SF, we demonstrate the value of integrated end-to-end modeling, verification, code-generation and testing process for complex software-controlled embedded systems. © 2014 ACM.