Bayesian Emulation for Sequential Modeling, Inference and Decision Analysis

The advances in three related areas of state-space modeling, sequential Bayesian learning, and decision analysis are addressed, with the statistical challenges of scalability and associated dynamic sparsity. The key theme that ties the three areas is Bayesian model emulation: solving challenging analysis/computational problems using creative model emulators. This idea defines theoretical and applied advances in non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space modeling, dynamic sparsity, decision analysis and statistical computation, across linked contexts of multivariate time series and dynamic networks studies. Examples and applications in financial time series and portfolio analysis, macroeconomics and internet studies from computational advertising demonstrate the utility of the core methodological innovations.

Chapter 1 summarizes the three areas/problems and the key idea of emulating in those areas. Chapter 2 discusses the sequential analysis of latent threshold models with use of emulating models that allows for analytical filtering to enhance the efficiency of posterior sampling. Chapter 3 examines the emulator model in decision analysis, or the synthetic model, that is equivalent to the loss function in the original minimization problem, and shows its performance in the context of sequential portfolio optimization. Chapter 4 describes the method for modeling the steaming data of counts observed on a large network that relies on emulating the whole, dependent network model by independent, conjugate sub-models customized to each set of flow. Chapter 5 reviews those advances and makes the concluding remarks.

Physics of Hexagonal Limit-Periodic Phases: Thermodynamics, Formation and Vibrational Modes

Limit-periodic (LP) structures exhibit a type of nonperiodic order yet to be found in a natural material. A recent result in tiling theory, however, has shown that LP order can spontaneously emerge in a two-dimensional (2D) lattice model with nearest-and next-nearest-neighbor interactions. In this dissertation, we explore the question of what types of interactions can lead to a LP state and address the issue of whether the formation of a LP structure in experiments is possible. We study emergence of LP order in three-dimensional (3D) tiling models and bring the subject into the physical realm by investigating systems with realistic Hamiltonians and low energy LP states. Finally, we present studies of the vibrational modes of a simple LP ball and spring model whose results indicate that LP materials would exhibit novel physical properties.

A 2D lattice model defined on a triangular lattice with nearest- and next-nearest-neighbor interactions based on the Taylor-Socolar (TS) monotile is known to have a LP ground state. The system reaches that state during a slow quench through an infinite sequence of phase transitions. Surprisingly, even when the strength of the next-nearest-neighbor interactions is zero, in which case there is a large degenerate class of both crystalline and LP ground states, a slow quench yields the LP state. The first study in this dissertation introduces 3D models closely related to the 2D models that exhibit LP phases. The particular 3D models were designed such that next-nearest-neighbor interactions of the TS type are implemented using only nearest-neighbor interactions. For one of the 3D models, we show that the phase transitions are first order, with equilibrium structures that can be more complex than in the 2D case.

In the second study, we investigate systems with physical Hamiltonians based on one of the 2D tiling models with the goal of stimulating attempts to create a LP structure in experiments. We explore physically realizable particle designs while being mindful of particular features that may make the assembly of a LP structure in an experimental system difficult. Through Monte Carlo (MC) simulations, we have found that one particle design in particular is a promising template for a physical particle; a 2D system of identical disks with embedded dipoles is observed to undergo the series of phase transitions which leads to the LP state.

LP structures are well ordered but nonperiodic, and hence have nontrivial vibrational modes. In the third section of this dissertation, we study a ball and spring model with a LP pattern of spring stiffnesses and identify a set of extended modes with arbitrarily low participation ratios, a situation that appears to be unique to LP systems. The balls that oscillate with large amplitude in these modes live on periodic nets with arbitrarily large lattice constants. By studying periodic approximants to the LP structure, we present numerical evidence for the existence of such modes, and we give a heuristic explanation of their structure.

Fermion Mass Generation without Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking

The conventional mechanism of fermion mass generation in the Standard Model involves Spontaneous Symmetry Breaking (SSB). In this thesis, we study an alternate mechanism for the generation of fermion masses that does not require SSB, in the context of lattice field theories. Being inherently strongly coupled, this mechanism requires a non-perturbative approach like the lattice approach.

In order to explore this mechanism, we study a simple lattice model with a four-fermion interaction that has massless fermions at weak couplings and massive fermions at strong couplings, but without any spontaneous symmetry breaking. Prior work on this type of mass generation mechanism in 4D, was done long ago using either mean-field theory or Monte-Carlo calculations on small lattices. In this thesis, we have developed a new computational approach that enables us to perform large scale quantum Monte-Carlo calculations to study the phase structure of this theory. In 4D, our results confirm prior results, but differ in some quantitative details of the phase diagram. In contrast, in 3D, we discover a new second order critical point using calculations on lattices up to size $ 60^3$. Such large scale calculations are unprecedented. The presence of the critical point implies the existence of an alternate mechanism of fermion mass generation without any SSB, that could be of interest in continuum quantum field theory.

Finite size effects in the presence of a chemical potential: A study in the classical nonlinear O(2) sigma model

In the presence of a chemical potential, the physics of level crossings leads to singularities at zero temperature, even when the spatial volume is finite. These singularities are smoothed out at a finite temperature but leave behind nontrivial finite size effects which must be understood in order to extract thermodynamic quantities using Monte Carlo methods, particularly close to critical points. We illustrate some of these issues using the classical nonlinear O(2) sigma model with a coupling β and chemical potential μ on a 2+1-dimensional Euclidean lattice. In the conventional formulation this model suffers from a sign problem at nonzero chemical potential and hence cannot be studied with the Wolff cluster algorithm. However, when formulated in terms of the worldline of particles, the sign problem is absent, and the model can be studied efficiently with the "worm algorithm." Using this method we study the finite size effects that arise due to the chemical potential and develop an effective quantum mechanical approach to capture the effects. As a side result we obtain energy levels of up to four particles as a function of the box size and uncover a part of the phase diagram in the (β,μ) plane. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Fermion bag approach to lattice field theories

We propose a new approach to the fermion sign problem in systems where there is a coupling U such that when it is infinite the fermions are paired into bosons, and there is no fermion permutation sign to worry about. We argue that as U becomes finite, fermions are liberated but are naturally confined to regions which we refer to as fermion bags. The fermion sign problem is then confined to these bags and may be solved using the determinantal trick. In the parameter regime where the fermion bags are small and their typical size does not grow with the system size, construction of Monte Carlo methods that are far more efficient than conventional algorithms should be possible. In the region where the fermion bags grow with system size, the fermion bag approach continues to provide an alternative approach to the problem but may lose its main advantage in terms of efficiency. The fermion bag approach also provides new insights and solutions to sign problems. A natural solution to the "silver blaze problem" also emerges. Using the three-dimensional massless lattice Thirring model as an example, we introduce the fermion bag approach and demonstrate some of these features. We compute the critical exponents at the quantum phase transition and find ν=0.87(2) and η=0.62(2). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Quantitative model of the phase behavior of recombinant pH-responsive elastin-like polypeptides.

Quantitative models are required to engineer biomaterials with environmentally responsive properties. With this goal in mind, we developed a model that describes the pH-dependent phase behavior of a class of stimulus responsive elastin-like polypeptides (ELPs) that undergo reversible phase separation in response to their solution environment. Under isothermal conditions, charged ELPs can undergo phase separation when their charge is neutralized. Optimization of this behavior has been challenging because the pH at which they phase separate, pHt, depends on their composition, molecular weight, concentration, and temperature. To address this problem, we developed a quantitative model to describe the phase behavior of charged ELPs that uses the Henderson-Hasselbalch relationship to describe the effect of side-chain ionization on the phase-transition temperature of an ELP. The model was validated with pH-responsive ELPs that contained either acidic (Glu) or basic (His) residues. The phase separation of both ELPs fit this model across a range of pH. These results have important implications for applications of pH-responsive ELPs because they provide a quantitative model for the rational design of pH-responsive polypeptides whose transition can be triggered at a specified pH.

Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem

This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham's-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains. © Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2010.

A soft robust model for optimization under ambiguity

In this paper, we propose a framework for robust optimization that relaxes the standard notion of robustness by allowing the decision maker to vary the protection level in a smooth way across the uncertainty set. We apply our approach to the problem of maximizing the expected value of a payoff function when the underlying distribution is ambiguous and therefore robustness is relevant. Our primary objective is to develop this framework and relate it to the standard notion of robustness, which deals with only a single guarantee across one uncertainty set. First, we show that our approach connects closely to the theory of convex risk measures. We show that the complexity of this approach is equivalent to that of solving a small number of standard robust problems. We then investigate the conservatism benefits and downside probability guarantees implied by this approach and compare to the standard robust approach. Finally, we illustrate theme thodology on an asset allocation example consisting of historical market data over a 25-year investment horizon and find in every case we explore that relaxing standard robustness with soft robustness yields a seemingly favorable risk-return trade-off: each case results in a higher out-of-sample expected return for a relatively minor degradation of out-of-sample downside performance. © 2010 INFORMS.