Periodic Breathing and Behavioral Awakenings at High Altitude.

Objectives. To study the relationship between nocturnal periodic breathing episodes and behavioral awakenings at high altitude. Methods. Observational study. It is 6-day ascent of 4 healthy subjects from Besisahar (760 meters) to Manang (3540 meters) in Nepal in March 2012. A recording pulse oximeter was worn by each subject to measure their oxygen saturation and the presence of periodic breathing continuously through the night. An actigraph was simultaneously worn in order to determine nocturnal behavioral awakenings. There were no interventions. Results. 187-hour sleep at high altitude was analyzed, and of this, 145 hours (78%) had at least one PB event. At high altitude, 10.5% (95% CI 6.5-14.6%) of total sleep time was spent in PB while 15 out of 50 awakenings (30%, 95% CI: 18-45%) occurring at high altitudes were associated with PB (P < 0.001). Conclusions. Our data reveals a higher than expected number of behavioral awakenings associated with PB compared to what would be expected by chance. This suggests that PB likely plays a role in behavioral awakenings at high altitude.

Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.